The 2025-26 Champions League league phase has reached its halfway point and the fight for a place in the knockout rounds is heating up, with a clearer picture of the final standings starting to take shape.
Three teams have a perfect record through four Champions League games, with Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Inter Milan setting the pace.
Reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain and 15-time holders Real Madrid entered the latest round of games perfect as well. But with the Parisians falling to Bayern and Los Blancos losing in their visit to Liverpool, they both saw their perfect records extinguished.
Four Premier League teams are currently among the top eight in the standings, laying out the dominance of English teams in the competition so far.
Although every team still has to play four more games, Opta’s supercomputer has crunched the numbers and made calculated predictions about what’s to come for the remainder of the Champions League season.
Unsurprisingly, some of the consensus best teams in the world are expected to finish the league phase at the summit of the standings.
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Arsenal have won 10 in a row in across all competitions. / MB Media/Getty Images
Team
Expected Position
Current Position
Expected Points
Current Points
Arsenal
1
2
20.25
12
Bayern Munich
2
1
19.29
12
Man City
3
4
18.02
10
Liverpool
4
8
17.08
9
Inter
5
3
16.88
12
PSG
6
5
16.66
9
Real Madrid
7
7
16.06
9
Barcelona
8
11
14.80
7
As has been the case since last season, the top eight finishers in the league phase will automatically qualify to the round of 16. Halfway through the league phase, Opta expects the eight best European clubs on paper to capture the top eight spots.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have been near flawless this season and they’re predicted to finish as table-toppers in the league phase.
Bayern Munich, who currently lead the standings through goal difference, are penciled in to finish second. Manchester City had a stumble in their first European game of the season but have since looked formidable and a third place finish is in the cards according to Opta.
After a statement win against Los Blancos, Premier League champions Liverpool are expected to finish fourth, one spot ahead of last season’s finalists Inter Milan.
Reigning champions PSG lost their perfect record as well as key players to injury against Bayern Munich. Still, Luis Enrique’s side are forecasted to be sixth come the end of the league phase.
Completing the top eight are bitter rivals Real Madrid and Barcelona. The Spanish Giants were unconvincing against Liverpool and Club Brugge respectively, but they should bounce back in their upcoming matches given the immense amount of talent in their ranks.
Newcastle have won three straight Champions League games. / Stu Forster/Getty Images
Team
Expected Position
Current Position
Expected Points
Current Points
Newcastle
9
6
14.78
9
Chelsea
10
12
14.10
7
Tottenham
11
10
13.94
8
Borussia Dortmund
12
14
13.77
7
Galatasaray
13
9
13.55
9
Atlético Madrid
14
17
12.58
6
Atalanta
15
16
12.42
7
Sporting CP
16
13
11.78
7
Qarabag FK
17
15
10.52
7
Napoli
18
24
10.38
4
Monaco
19
19
10.10
5
Bayer Leverkusen
20
21
9.98
5
Club Brugge
21
22
9.65
4
Juventus
22
26
9.22
3
Pafos
23
20
9.01
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
24
23
8.86
4
Every team that finishes the league phase between ninth and 24th will play the two-legged knockout round playoffs. Introduced a season ago, this playoff round will determine the final eight teams that advance to the round of 16.
The supercomputer predicts the remaining Premier League teams to finish just outside the top eight, with Newcastle United, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur all comfortably advancing to the playoff round.
Similarly, Opta expects all remaining Serie A and Bundesliga sides in the competition to make it past the league phase. Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta and Napoli are predicted to advance with relative ease.
However, Bayer Leverkusen, Juventus and Eintracht Frankfurt will have to fight for their Champions League lives until the final gameweek, with the latter expected to narrowly advance to the playoff round with a 24th place finish in the league phase.
Atlético Madrid are the only other La Liga team outside of the top eight predicted to survive the league phase and advance.
A well-earned victory against Liverpool and a pummeling of Ajax thanks to Victor Oshimhen’s brilliance has Turkish giants Galatasaray well-positioned to make it past the league phase, as are reigning Portuguese champions Sporting CP.
Azerbaijani side Qarabag FK drew against Chelsea and are predicted reach the knockout phase playoffs. Belgian outfit Club Brugge are as well, who’ll be motivated after their impressive performance against Barcelona.
The same can be said about Monaco, who have already collected points in impressive performances against Man City and Tottenham Hotspur.
Finally, the impressive Champions League debutants Pafos, mere 15 years after their foundation, are predicted to make it through to the knockout rounds.
Arsenal are the favorites to win their first ever Champions League title. / Alex Pantling/Getty Images
Team
Title Percentage
Arsenal
23.59%
Bayern Munich
14.32%
Man City
12.46%
Liverpool
11.34%
PSG
10.48%
Every Arsenal fan will be hoping Opta’s predictions turn prophetic. The supercomputer views Arsenal as the overwhelming favorite to lift Europe’s most prestigious club trophy come season’s end, with their 23.59% chance of winning it all almost 10 percentage points higher than the team with the second best odds.
Vincent Kompany’s Bayern Munich are said team with the second best odds. After defeating the reigning champions, the German giants are given a 14.32% chance of lifting their seventh Champions League title.
The third best odds belong to Man City. After struggling in 2024–25, Pep Guardiola’s side are slowly returning to form and the supercomputer predicts they have a 12.46% chance of finishing the season as European champions.
Recently, Arne Slot’s Liverpool experienced the club’s worst run of results domestically in over 70 years. But after bouncing back with a deserved win against Real Madrid, they are given an 11.34% probability of winning their first Champions League since 2019.
The only other team with double-digit odds to win the Champions League are reigning holders Paris Saint-Germain. Luis Enrique’s side are given a 10.48% chance to repeat as European monarchs.
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