The odds of extreme cold this winter in the US, Asia and parts of Europe are climbing, threatening to boost energy bills for consumers already grappling with high costs and economic uncertainty.

With the season’s start just weeks away, meteorologists see many of the same conditions that led to one of the warmest winters on record last year for the Northern Hemisphere. But there’s one key difference: Signs are emerging that the polar vortex, the girdle of winds around the Arctic, could weaken and allow frigid air to spill southward.