Toronto is already getting the first signs that winter is about to hit, and with it, one expert warns that a harsh flu season could also be ahead. 

After the first snowfall of the year signaled the cold season is quickly approaching, one expert is also sounding the alarm on the upcoming flu season, which could bring more infections, vaccine resistance, and stress on the health-care system.  

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Public Health Ontario’s (PHO) Ontario Respiratory Virus Tool recently revealed data about influenza cases within the province between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1. Ontario registered a 1.8 per cent increase in cases of influenza within that period, including 129 cases, three outbreaks, and 14 hospitalizations. 

PHO is also predicting that cases will increase even more by the end of the week, especially among children and seniors. 

University of Toronto Department of Laboratory Medicine & Pathobiology’s Dr. Allison McGeer explains that the severity of flu seasons usually vary from year to year, due to several factors that are not yet fully understood by doctors. 

According to her, a few of these factors currently indicate that the upcoming season might be a harsh one for Canadians based on the predominant type of flu, vaccine effectiveness, and what has been observed in other countries. 

The doctor explains that there are three different kinds of flu. The Influenza A H1N1 and Influenza B are the most common ones, which usually mostly affect children, since adults usually develop antibodies after getting vaccinated or contract them multiple times throughout life. 

However, the Influenza A H3N2 usually suffers quick mutations, which make it harder for adults to adapt to, as they are not able to develop new antibodies that rapidly. 

“A really active H1N1 is in some degree hard on pediatric hospitals and pediatric admissions, but it’s usually not that bad, because flu isn’t as bad as some other things in kids, but a bad H3N2 season means a lot of hospital admissions for adults, and it really stretches out and because it comes as kind of a peak, usually in the first couple of weeks of January, it can really stress the health-care system,” McGeer told Now Toronto on Tuesday. 

According to what has been observed so far in other countries, McGeer says experts currently believe that Influenza H3N2 will be predominant this year, which means that more adults and older adults could be affected, overwhelming the health-care system. 

“It’s looking like it’s going to be an H3N2 season. So, that’s automatically not great for us older adults. It has been a very active season so far in a bunch of other countries. So, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Japan are all reporting early and very active seasons. So, that’s not good news, since generally, seasons are similar around the world,” she said. 

Moreover, McGeer also explains that new flu vaccines are usually necessary because the flu virus suffers mutations every year, requiring changes to the vaccine. However, this year, the virus seems to have “shifted away” from previous vaccines. 

“That means that more people will get infected because they don’t have protection from prior infection, and the vaccine won’t work as well as it usually does,” she added. 

HOW TO AVOID GETTING SICK

Ahead of what could be a tough flu season for many, especially risk groups including seniors and people with compromised immune systems, McGeer is also giving tips on how Torontonians can avoid getting sick with the flu. 

Although changes to the H3N2 might make vaccines less effective, McGeer says the most important step for people to prevent getting sick is getting vaccinated. 

“It’d be really nice if we had a flu vaccine that prevented all influenza for [our entire] lifetime with two shots, right? That would just save all of us so much trouble. What we’ve got are flu vaccines that are not great, but always much better than nothing,” she said. 

Besides reducing the chances of getting infected ourselves, McGeer says the vaccine also prevents us from spreading the virus to others, further reducing contaminations and the burden on the health-care system. 

Meanwhile, the doctor says people should also be washing their hands regularly, at least five times a day, to prevent infections. 

“If we’re standing around and I’m coughing, sneezing on you, getting on your hands, and then you put your hand up your face to rub your eyes or something, the flu can be transmitted that way. So, making sure you clean your hands regularly, reduces respiratory illnesses,” she said. 

The use of masks in public spaces, hospitals and care homes also helps to prevent infected people from spreading the virus, as well as to keep healthy people from contracting the flu. 

In addition, the doctor also recommends that those infected should consider staying home to avoid infecting others, especially if they are going to be around vulnerable groups.