The bad news for Week 11’s Monday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders is it features two bad football teams. The good news is we got a game last week between two good teams that put the country to sleep and might have ended the Disney vs. YouTube TV standoff. That being said, it’s worth noting we swept our ATS bets and player props last Monday, so we probably shouldn’t complain too much. It’s hard to hit anytime touchdown scorer bets when there aren’t any touchdowns! 

Monday’s game should at least feature some offense this time around. There’s a whopping 50.5 total for this game, which means we should get points galore. 

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Neither team is particularly adept at playing any sort of defense, and both offenses feature enough elite skill-position guys where we should see some blowups on that side of the ball. 

It’s the perfect type of game to hit some player props, because a lot of guys will be involved on offense and the expectation is neither defense will do a whole lot to slow the other side down. Let’s find some winners 

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Best bets for Monday Night FootballRaiders +3.5

Now, the Cowboys are probably the “better” of these two teams. Dallas’ offense has looked like the best in football for large stretchs of the season. The Raiders… not so much.

But the Cowboys defense is an unmitigated disaster. Last we saw them, they were being carved up by the Cardinals — mostly the Arizona backups. Maybe the bye week gave them time to incorporate new players like Quinnen Williams, but I’m not extremely hopeful they are going to turn the corner and be great down the stretch. Neither are the sportsbooks. See: the total in this game. 

So the Raiders should be able to score plenty. Between Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker, they’ve got explosive playmakers. 

Conversely, I don’t see Vegas slowing the Dallas offense down a ton either, so it could simply be a shootout in the desert. But this is too high a total to mess with, so I’m instead going to back the home team getting points against a bad defense in what could be a shootout with tons of variance. 

I want the field goal and the hook if there’s going to be a wild back-and-forth battle, especially knowing Geno Smith and Co. could come through the back door.  

Monday Night Football player propsTre Tucker longest reception Over 19.5 yards

I’m very curious to see how the Raiders approach this game from a target-distribution standpoint. Brock Bowers will be the focal point, but Tucker has really emerged this season as a dangerous weapon for Geno. 

He’s also a fantastic deep threat with elite speed, so we’re going back to target his longest reception here. This is well over 20 yards in other spots on the market and Tucker has hit a longest reception of 20+ in four of the last five games. The one game he didn’t was the 31-0 skunking of the Raiders by the Chiefs, who play a style of defense designed to take any big shots away. 

The Cowboys love to give up the deep ball, surrendering 20+ yard catches to multiple receivers — two receivers on the Cardinals before the bye, three on the Broncos in Week 8, three to the depleted Commanders in Week 7, two to the Panthers in Week 6.

CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 receptions

Look, sometimes we just don’t need to overthink things. CeeDee Lamb is an elite football player. The Cowboys are an elite offense. The Raiders are not an elite defense. This game has a massive total. It’s being played indoors. 

Prior to that nasty TNF game in Denver (where Troy Franklin still had nine targets), Las Vegas gave up eight catches to Parker Washington and seven catches to Rashee Rice. 

The Cowboys will want to run the ball a bunch in this game and Javonte Williams could have a massive game. But they’re a pass-heavy team who will likely be in a shootout, which means plenty of looks for Lamb, who has 30 targets since returning from injury and has cleared this number twice in those three games.

Tyler Lockett Over 26.5 receiving yards

The second Jakobi Meyers got traded from the Raiders, it opened up a bunch of targets for Vegas wide receivers. Enter Lockett, a long-time Pete Carroll and Geno Smith favorite, who saw six targets in his first game with legitimate action.

Lockett played just 57% of the snaps (behind Turner and Dont’e Thornton) but made the most of those snaps and seemed to be more involved when the Raiders needed to throw, which they should in this game.

He’s extremely reliable and could potentially see a spike in his snap count this week, his third with the Raiders since requesting his release from the Titans and signing with the Raiders. 

In a game that should feature a ton of passing attempts, this number feels a little too low still. 

Anytime touchdown picksJake Ferguson (+170, FanDuel)

There should be plenty of touchdowns (the total is accounting for roughly six of them if you assume a few field goals in this game), and Ferguson is just good value at this number despite a lower usage with CeeDee Lamb back in the fold.

As we’ve noted previously, Ferguson is a favorite goal-line of Dak Prescott, ranking sixth in the NFL in red-zone targets. He’s been extremely reliable in these spots, catching more than 70% of his 14 targets and turning them into five touchdowns. 

Inside the 10-yard line, he’s got eight targets for four touchdowns on the year, meaning if the Raiders stack the box and slow down the run game at all near the end zone, Ferguson is very likely to get a look or two over the course of his high-scoring game.

This price is also twenty cents better than the other spots in the market right now.

Brock Bowers (+100, DraftKings)

Tight end double dip time! Why not? The only other Raiders player I really want to back is Jeanty and he’s too pricey at his number. Bowers obviously needs a little more help to score here, but this is a really good spot and great value at even money. 

Since returning from injury, Bowers has had one great game (three touchdowns) and one terrible game (three targets). The big difference in those games is he played a mediocre defense (Jacksonville) and played a great defense (Denver). The Cowboys are a mediocre (at best) defense.

But they are a mediocre defense that will load up to stop Jeanty in the red zone, which should open up the opportunity for Bowers to sneak out on some play-action looks and score. With his potential usage in a high-total game, I absolutely want to be on any even or plus-money touchdown opportunity for the superstar tight end. 

The Cowboys have also given up a touchdown to a tight end in two out of their last three games.Â