Thursday Night Football in Week 12 features an intriguing AFC battle between the Buffalo Bills (7-3) and the Houston Texans (5-5).

Buffalo appears to be firmly in a wild card spot – for now – in the AFC, while Houston is on the outside looking in ahead of Week 12.

The Texans have been without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud since he suffered a concussion in Week 9, and he’s listed as out for this matchup. Davis Mills, who started the last two games and led the Texans to wins, will be under center on Thursday.

Oddsmakers have set the Texans as home dogs against Josh Allen and company, but Houston has battled back from an 0-3 start and a 3-5 mark at one point to get to .500. Can it pull off a major upset in primetime to get over .500? 

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this primetime matchup, and I’ve decided to bring some of our favorites together all in one place.

Here’s a look at the best picks, props and more for Bills vs. Texans. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Texans +5.5 (-105) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s backing the Texans as home dogs: 

The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are mirror images of each other, especially in the advanced metric DVOA. The Bills are fourth in offensive DVOA but 22nd in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Texans are 22nd in offensive DVOA, but third in defensive DVOA. So, will it be the team with the elite offense but bad defense, or the team with the bad offense and elite defense that will come out on top? I’m not sure which team will win the game, but the Texans’ defense is elite enough that I’m willing to take the points with Houston on a short week on their home field.

Woody Marks OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Woody Marks may have established himself as the top back in the Houston backfield, and now he’s looking to have a big game against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL: 

Buffalo is a terrific matchup for Houston rookie running back Woody Marks, who appears to have taken the top spot in the team’s running back rotation.

Marks played 80.0 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 10 and 65.7 percent of the snaps in Week 11, carrying the ball 32 times during that stretch.

He now has five games in a row with double-digit carries, although he only has one game this season with over 64.5 rushing yards. 

Still, I think this could be a breakout spot for Marks, as the Bills are just 31st in the NFL in EPA/Rush, allowing 5.4 yards per carry – the second-most in the NFL. 

Marks has 14 and 18 carries in his last two games, and he should find ample running room against a Buffalo defense that allowed 106 yards and two scores to Tampa Bay’s Sean Tucker in Week 11. 

Khalil Shakir 5+ Receptions (-113) – Peter Dewey

If there’s one Bills wideout to trust this season, it’s been Shakir, and he’s a solid prop target against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL: 

Houston has an elite pass defense, but I think Khalil Shakir could be a safety valve for Allen in this matchup.

This season, the Bills wideout has six games with at least five catches, including three of his last four matchups. Shakir has been targeted 61 times in 10 games with 27 of those targets coming in the last four weeks.

He only reeled in one pass against Tampa Bay, but I think this is a bounce-back spot for one of Allen’s most-trusted weapons. 

Shakir has played 59.7 percent of the team’s snaps this season and leads the team in receptions (46), target (61) and receiving yards (454) in 2025.

James Cook Anytime TD (-105) — Ryan Gilbert

If you’re looking for a player to find the end zone, SI Betting’s Ryan Gilbert is eyeing star back James Cook this week:

While the Texans haven’t allowed a quarterback rushing touchdown, plenty of running backs have scored against Houston this season. 

The Titans’ backs didn’t find paydirt last week, but that’s not too surprising. James Cook is a lot better than either of Tony Pollard or Tyjae Spears, though.

Cook caught a touchdown pass last week, giving him eight scores on the season. That is second on the team behind Allen, with the injured Dalton Kincaid behind him with four touchdowns.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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