Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne sees “uniquely tangible opportunities for upside” for CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T), leading him to raise his 2026 forecast by 3 per cent to reflect an 8-per-cent EBITDA growth profile “which should continue to magnify shareholder value off a capital-lite model through de-leveraging and return of capital.”

“Reflecting on Q3/25, CEU exceeded expectations in association with sound top-line performance complemented by a re-inflection of its margin profile (16.5 per cent high-end), largely resulting from the broader intensity thematic (entrenched and advancing),” he said in a client note. “From there, conference call highlights suggest momentum therein, where recent new business wins should deliver operating leverage (costs already partially embedded) in support of continued strength of returns. Perhaps more importantly, these wins through RFP reflect a new stage of growth for the company, competing for scalable and high-margin business (across the expanse of large customer portfolios with long-duration prospects; including offshore and SAGD) as it arguably begins to capitalize on the vacuum in production chemicals left by CHX’s recent consolidation (25-30-per-cent market share in CAN & U.S. vs. CEU 20 per cent; acquired by SLB at a healthy 10 times multiple).”

Mr. Payne expects those dynamics of “intensity, exposures and competition” to continue to be positive drivers for the Calgary-based company’s earnings in the coming quarters.

“Recognizing our well-timed upgrade of CEU to Outperform in July (since which, it has appreciated 70 per cent, and outperformed the OSX and XEG Index by 5 times), we equally acknowledge that we are woefully underwater on our target price and valuation perspective,” he added.

“To that end, and in association with its solid third quarter results that continues to reflect a strong quality of earnings (associated momentum noted herein), we have revisited our thesis, estimates and target price. The punchline being, its uniquely tangible opportunities continue to expose upside to outperform a stagnant activity cycle (value sensitivity inside).”

That led him to raise his target for CES shares to $13 from $10.50, retaining an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $12.31.

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While acknowledging the activewear category and its own brand are “facing challenging,” Citi analyst Paul Lejuez does not expect the third-quarter results from Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU-Q) to be “worse than expected,” however he sees “a balanced risk/reward” proposition for investors ahead of its Dec. 3 release.

“We anticipate a 3Q EPS beat driven by lower SG&A,” he said. We model 3Q Americas comps of negative 6 per cent (in-line w/cons) with weakness in the lounge category, particularly in key franchises (scuba/soft stream/dance studio).

“While overall trends in the Americas remain weak and promos are elevated, we believe 3Q trends are relatively in-line w/plan and previous 4Q guidance is conservative enough for management not to lower. The focus will be on F26, where management has pointed to an Americas improvement in spring (many investors are skeptical) and LULU will face incremental margin headwinds from tariffs/de minimis dynamic. Sentiment remains extremely negative and we believe bears are pricing in closer to $10 in EPS in F26.”

In a note released before the bell, the analyst raised his third-quarter earnings per share projection to US$2.28 from US$2.22, exceeding the consensus forecast of US$2.21, to reflect lower expenses. His full-year 2025 and 2026 estimates increased to US$12.96 and US$11.62, respectively, from US$12.92 and US$10.45 (versus the Street’s expectations of US$12.84 and US$12.61) based on stronger margins and lower expectations, expecting management “to look for offsets to the margin impact from tariffs/de minimis.”

“While we believe LULU’s own execution, including being too slow to react to new trends/customer needs, partially explains LULU’s recent underperformance, we believe LULU is facing significant category headwinds driven by the shift in apparel away from athleisure back toward fashion categories,” he said.

“While fashion tailwinds in non-athletic categories are very strong this fall/holiday, we don’t that changing meaningfully in F26, making it an uphill battle for LULU to reignite sales in the U.S.. Last quarter, management lowered F25 China sales guidance from 25-30-per-cent growth to 20-25 per cent, citing slowing store traffic in Tier 1 cities, which they attributed to both macro and product/execution issues (similar to what they’re seeing in the U.S.). We model China sales growth at the low end of the guidance range in both 3Q and F25 given a weaker macro environment in the region. Any further weakening in China sales growth would be viewed negatively for the stock.”

Also focusing on markdown levels and its margin trajectory, which he thinks will see “significant” pressure in fiscal 2026 due to “continued underperformance” in the U.S., Mr. Lejuez kept a US$190 and “neutral” rating for Lululemon shares. The current average is US$202.11.

“After years of benefitting from outsized growth in active apparel, trends in the category have slowed in F24 with data in Yoga & Active apparel pointing to a further decel 2Q quarter-to-date vs 1Q (which was a big decel vs F23).  This dynamic, coupled with LULU’s execution issues (lackluster product assortment/lack of color/sizing) leave LULU more susceptible to increased competition and promotional pressures in 2H24/F25. We believe category weakness and a tougher macro backdrop makes it unlikely LULU sees a reacceleration in U.S. trends in 2H. Additionally, while LULU has performed extremely well in China over several years, incremental weakening of the China consumer environment is an added risk to the stock (as expectations remain high on China growth),” he concluded.

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Raymond James analyst Christian Reiter sees “a compelling re-rating opportunity” for Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) as it “evolves from a mature wood-products consolidator into a diversified platform supporting the next wave of utility-infrastructure modernization.”

“After years of portfolio optimization and disciplined capital allocation, we expect SJ to re-enter an acquisitive phase, leveraging its leading North American footprint, blue-chip customer relationships, and proven integration record,” he said. “Secular tailwinds – grid reliability, electrification, EV adoption, data-centre growth, and onshoring – should drive a multi-year expansion in transmission and distribution (T&D) spending. With aging assets and constrained U.S. power capacity, SJ is well positioned to supply both maintenance and growth demand throughout this cycle.”

In a client report released Thursday, he initiated coverage of the Montreal-based manufacturer of infrastructure products expecting its upcoming acquisitions to “mark the beginning of the next stage in its growth story, with management deploying the heaviest M&A spend in years as we expect capital allocation priorities to shift.” He pointed to the recent deals for Locweld Inc. ($58-million) and Brooks Manufacturing Co. (US$140-million).

“With a newly minted M&A team, combined with a proven track record of executing accretive acquisitions, we are confident in SJ’s abilities to achieve margin expansion and gain share in adjacent markets,” he added. “Assuming 2025 transaction multiples (Locweld: $110-million acquired revenue at 0.9 times EV/Sales; Brooks: $196-million at 1.7 times EV/Sales and est. 7 times EBITDA) – plus leverage within guidance, we estimate each deal within that range adds $2.0-3.0 per share in equity value. US steel transmission M&A is likely lumpy, but a sizable transaction could drive transformative earnings growth, corroborate management’s strategic shift and support a return to SJ’s historic valuation range (underscoring the optionality embedded in a disciplined, cash-generative platform).”

Calling Stella-Jones “a well-oiled, scalable FCF machine” and a “operationally efficient free cash flow generator and a dominant player in the North American treated wood products market,” Mr. Reiter set a target of $100, exceeding the $91.44 average on the Street.

“We see a decade-plus runway of structural growth in T&D infrastructure as utility companies replace aging poles and expand capacity to meet AI-, EV-, and electrification-driven demand. Stella-Jones’ leading market share, cost competitiveness, and manufacturing scale position it as a prime beneficiary of this build-out,” he said. “Roughly 75 per cent of SJ’s revenue stems from replacement and maintenance activity, providing downside protection even through slower economic periods. Although near-term organic growth is tempered by softer Class-1 rail tie spending, the resumption of U.S. federal grants, prescribed rate cuts and M&A drives earnings accretion in our model through 2027. Incorporating recently announced deals, we forecast a 7-per-cent EBITDA and 2-per-cent EPS lift in 2026, followed by 5-per-cent EBITDA growth in 2027.”

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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Greg Pardy reaffirmed Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T) as his favourite producer in Canada and its spot on the firm’s “Global Energy Best Ideas” list following a recent investor meeting with executive chairman Murray Edwards, which he called “both candid and insightful.”

“Our collective discussion provided ample two-way dialogue and delved into what makes CNQ tick, then moved on to various topics including the potential for further synergies at AOSP/Horizon, organic growth initiatives, and the importance of Canada’s energy tidewater access. This lunch was timely following the company’s recent third-quarter results and investor open house.”

“As one of the largest and most successful energy producers globally, CNQ has grown from an apple seed of just 5,200 boe/d (81-per-cent natural gas) in 1990 to an estimated 1.6 million boe/d (73-per-cent oil & liquids) currently via organic growth and select acquisitions. In our eyes, CNQ’s management & director’s ownership (which stands at over 2% and includes Murray’s ownership of approximately 43 million shares) underpins its shareholder alignment and creates unique accountability, especially at critical times. This includes the company’s decision to grow and maintain its common share dividend during the darkest days of the pandemic in 2020. It also includes CNQ’s strategic acquisitions and growth initiatives—like its bp asset acquisition back in 1999 (amid severely depressed oil prices) which, beyond properties at Primrose/Wolf Lake, afforded the resources which underpin Horizon’s 275,000 bbl/d of SCO productive capacity today. The company’s inaugural AOSP acquisition in 2017 was transformative to the scale of its oil sands mining segment.”

Mr. Pardy said his biggest takeaway was the potential for further synergies to emerge from the company’s recent asset swap with Shell Canada Ltd. related to the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP).

“The company is now positioned with enhanced flexibility to move trucks and equipment between AOSP and Horizon, and fully incorporate best practices into both,” he said. “We have trimmed our 2026 unit operating cost outlook at AOSP/Horizon by $1.00 (4 per cent) to $23.16 given our confidence that such synergies (including continuous improvement initiatives) are likely to flow into next year.”

“In order for CNQ to proceed with a large-scale mining expansion, the company would need to see egress and regulatory certainty, including federal GHG emissions policies. The Pathways Plus Plus theme that Murray refers to includes Pathways, pipelines and production for largescale mining expansions.”

Mr. Pardy reaffirmed an “outperform” recommendation on CNQ with a one-year price target of $62 per share. The average is currently $53.28.

“Under futures pricing, CNQ is trading at a 2026 debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 8.1 times (vs. our Global major peer group avg. of 7.2 times) and free cash flow (equity) yield of 7 per cent (vs. peers at 6 per cent),” he said. “In our minds, CNQ should command a premium relative valuation given its top-drawer leadership, shareholder alignment, long life-low decline portfolio, robust operating performance, strong balance sheet, free cash flow generation and abundant shareholder returns. ”

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After delivering “solid” third-quarter results alongside upward revisions to its 2025 retirement and long-term care outlooks, Desjardins Securities analyst Lorne Kalmar thinks Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) continues to “execute on the growth front through both acquisitions and developments, which have improved the overall quality and earnings profile of the portfolio.”

“With occupancy stabilizing, management expects blended rent growth in the 4–5-per-cent range, a decline in incentives, which are currently running at 1–2 per cent of revenue, and a moderation in expense growth,“ he said. ”Further, SIA sees meaningful upside in care revenue, noting that it can leverage its expertise in the LTC space to provide higher levels of care in its retirement portfolio, where resident needs are becoming more acute. Management is also working to optimize its pricing strategies via a multiyear plan. To this end, SIA recently moved Jennifer Anderson from LTC Operations to Retirement Operations to help execute its growth plan for care services. On the LTC side, higher preferred accommodation revenue, improved government funding and contributions from Nicola Lodge drove the improved NOI growth outlook.”

In a note titled Keep up the good work that followed a tour of the newly completed development in Brantford, Ont., Mr. Kalmar emphasized the company’s recent portfolio growth.

“With $595-million of acquisitions completed/announced year to date and two development completions totalling $218-million, SIA has made meaningful strides improving its portfolio quality and adding homes in key markets,” he said. “Management continues to have a robust pipeline of acquisitions and believes it could commence two LTC redevelopments in the GTA in 2026. As of September 30, SIA had issued 1.3 million shares for $23.9-million under its $125-million ATM.”

Maintaining his “buy” recommendation for Sienna shares, Mr. Kalmar raised his target to $23 from $21 in response to increases to funds from operations projections through 2027. The average target on the Street is $22.06.

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Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li believes the third-quarter results from Metro Inc. (MRU-T) “reflect continued solid execution” despite the unplanned two-month shutdown of a frozen distribution centre.

“Competition remains rational, but uptick in discount square footage growth will keep promotional intensity elevated, with potential implications for food SSSG [same-store sales growth] and margins,” he noted. “This should be manageable, and we expect MRU to achieve 10–11-per-cent EPS growth in FY26. MRU is a strong retailer and well-positioned to achieve consistent long-term EPS growth of 8–10 per cent. Limited potential return keeps us from being more positive at this time.

Shares of the Montreal-based grocer closed up 0.9 per cent on Wednesday after it reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.13, excluding 10 cents of non-recurring costs related to the temporary shutdown. The results largely fell in line with Mr. Li’s estimate of $1.15, which also factored in the closure

“Despite some noise from the Toronto frozen food DC shutdown, underlying results were solid, with better-than-expected gross margin improvement (approximately 30 basis points versus 20 basis points estimate) and continued solid pharmacy SSSG,“ he said. ”This was partially offset by slightly softer food SSSG (1.6 per cent vs 2 per cent consensus), similar to what we saw from L and EMP. SSSG would be closer to consensus when normalizing for 30bps of impact from the frozen DC shutdown and lapping LCBO strike. Adjusted EPS (ex non-recurring costs) was up 11 per cent year-over-year. Operations at the frozen DC resumed on November 10 and are expected to be back to normal by the end of December. The direct costs associated with the shutdown will impact net earnings by $15–20-million (7-9 cents) in 1Q FY26. The impact on sales and gross profit is expected to be modest given the contingency plan in place.”

The analyst noted the competitive environment “remains intense but rational,” but he sees Metro’s market share as “stable.”

“However, the uptick in industry discount square footage growth over the past few quarters (combined with slowing population growth) is having an impact on sales and might necessitate further investments in pricing to protect market share,” he added. “Despite incremental competitive pressures, we expect MRU to achieve 10–11-per-cent adjusted EPS growth in FY26 (vs 11 per cent in FY25). This is predicated on 3-per-cent top-line growth (2-per-cent/5-per-cent food/pharmacy SSSG), modest gross margin improvement of 10 basis points (DC productivity gains and shrink reduction partially offset by investments in pricing), stable SG&A rate and 3–4-per-cent NCIB.”

While he made modest reductions to his 2026 revenue and earnings expectations, Mr. Li kept a “hold” rating and $105 target for Metro shares. The average is currently $107.10.

Elsewhere, Scotia Capital analyst John Zamparo raised his target for Metro shares to $110 from $108 with a “sector outperform” rating.

“The signals seem clear in the grocery space that lower food SSS will be the norm over the next few quarters, though margin gains made from supply chain investments are likely sufficient to deliver MRU’s EPS growth algo. There’s no avoiding the conclusion of a more competitive market, in our view, and this probably persists for 2026. The ‘buy Canada’ theme is ebbing, value-seeking behavior persists, and we also believe a lack of population growth is now having an impact. We’ve reduced our sales estimates but increased EPS growth slightly for F26 on better profitability assumptions,” said Mr. Zamparo.

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In other analyst actions:

* In a note titled 3Q25 Results: The Acquisition Engine Hits Another Gear in 2025 YTD, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges lowered his Automotive Properties REIT (APR.UN-T) target to $12.50 from $12.75 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $12.58.

“APR’s long-term, triple-net leased cash flows that contractually grow over time with fixed-rent escalators and/or CPI-linked adjustments provide APR with investment characteristics that are similar in nature to long-term bonds with residual value exposure. APR’s underlying commercial real estate value can be further supported by APR’s prime urban location focus within its land constrained Canadian VECTOM markets that may allow APR to strategically pursue higher and better use land intensification development opportunities over the long-term,” he said.

* Mr. Sturges increased his NexLiving Communities Inc. (NXLV-X) to $2.60 from $2.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $2.55.

“In 4Q25 QTD, NexLiving sold a very small MFR property in Gatineau, QC totaling 10 units for $2-million or $200k/suite (exit trailing NOI cap rate: 2.95 per cent),” he said. “NexLiving is reviewing its Canadian MFR portfolio for additional capital recycling opportunities, which may translate into additional transactions executed in the next 12-18 months. NexLiving intends to bolster its liquidity position from cash sales proceeds generated, which may be redeployed into future MFR acquisitions,” he said.

* CIBC’s Anita Soni raised her targets for Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T, “outperformer”) to $23 from $22 and Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC-N/K-T, “outperformer”) to US$37 from US$36. The averages on the Street are $20.95 and US$29.42, respectively.

* CIBC’s Mark Jarvi trimmed his Northland Power Inc. (NPI-T) target to $24, falling below the $24.67 average, from $25 with an “outperformer” rating.