UFC Qatar starts EARLY this weekend (Sat., Nov. 22, 2025) inside ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. The Arabian Gulf has become one of UFC’s homes away from home over recent years, but this is its first time touching down in Qatar. The main event is in the Lightweight division. And Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker might have implications atop the division (if Tsarukyan wins, that is).
Hooker will be out to spoil things for Tsarukyan, though, and hopefully deny him the same title shot he lost due to a bad back last year.
The co-main event is Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry. The winner of this one has a great claim to be the next Welterweight title challenger. Whether they want it, though, is another matter. I can’t imagine too many fighters saw Islam Makhachev dismantle and demoralize Jack Della Maddalena last weekend and though, “me next!”
Nevertheless, also on the main card is Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield (someone is going to sleep there), Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai (with Hermansson going down to Welterweight) and Serghei Spivac vs. Shamil Gaziev.
UFC Qatar’s “Prelims” are headlined by Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev. The “Prelims” also have Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Tagir Ulanbekov, which should be fun. I’ve not heard of half the other guys on the undercard.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Qatar Main Card Money Line Odds
Dan Hooker will try to play spoiler at UFC Qatar.
Arman Tsarukyan (-530) vs. Dan Hooker (+360)
We haven’t seen Tsarukyan since he took a split decision over Charles Olvieira at UFC 300 back in April 2024. Since then, he’s done some pro grappling (he put Benson Henderson to sleep in September) and doing whatever very rich kids do. Tsarukyan’s reason for being on the sidelines might be partly because of having no financial pressure to fight, but also because he’s been in Dana White’s dog house ever since he fell out of his Lightweight title fight with Islam Makhachev in January.
White was very happy to throw Tsarukyan under the bus for pulling out of that fight late, due to a back injury.
Hooker, on the other hand, has been out of action for awhile, too. His last action was a split decision win over Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 305 in Aug. 2024. Hand surgery cost him a fight with Justin Gaethje and has caused him to be out this long. In the time in between he’s become a fight promoter, with his infamous one-minute brawls.
It’s really hard to count out Hooker, but I can see why Tsarukyan is such a big favorite here. His long lay-off would worry me if it were due to injury, but it seems to be due to choice and spite. Hooker’s lay-off was due to injury. And broken hands don’t heal very well. I’ve spoken to fighters who have conceded that they break their hand to some degree in every fight. I fear Hooker might be someone who has to fight through pain all the time. He’s tough as nails and able to do it, but against big name opposition it’s another thing working against his favor.
Tsarukyan’s wrestling is due to be a key factor here. His ability to fight a close fight with Makhachev in his debut only looks better now we’ve seen Makhachev turn into an all-conquering force. Tsarukyan’s wrestling gave Makhachev a lot of trouble and if Tsarukyan can trouble him, who can’t he trouble?
Hooker did well against Gamrot’s wrestling last time out, defying my expectations. But Gamrot’s takedown attempts were terrible after Hooker hurt him on the feet. He’s going to hope to do that again here, but Tsarukyan’s striking is much better than Gamrot’s. And that’s despite Tsarukyan losing a decision to Gamrot (a robbery on the scorecards).
Hooker’s stirking is good and powerful and creative, but he’s very wild. Tsarukyan should be able to avoid it (he only absorbs 1.84 sig. strikes a minute) and then capitalize on wild shots to land his takedowns. Tsarukyan has been working a lot on his grappling, so we might even see a finish on the ground here.
The round total is 3.5. The over is +102 and the under is -128. I’m tempted by the under. It feels like if Tsarukyan is good enough to submit Hooker, it’s not going to take us three rounds to see that.
Tsarukyan by decision is +240, by KO/TKO is +155 and by submission is +380. I think the lines on KO/TKO and submission should be flipped, given how tough Hooker’s chin is.
I’m going to go big with this one and say Tsarukyan is able to submit Hooker. That’s what Makhachev did and I have a feeling Tsarukyan would love to prove he could do the same.
Best bet: Arman Tsarukyan to win by Submission (+380)
Can Ian Machado Garry jump the line with a win at UFC Qatar?
Belal Muhammad (+215) vs. Ian Machado Garry (-290)
Muhammad lost his Welterweight title to Jack Della Maddalena in May. He tried to box with the striker and by the time he started to focus on takedowns he was too beat up to make them count. That was Muhammad’s first attempt at a title defense. He, of course, won the belt by dominating Leon Edwards. Many thought Edwards’ poor performance was due to the strange scheduling time and Muhammad being a much improved fighter. However, with what we’ve seen now, maybe Edwards had just peaked with his wins over Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington?
Machado Garry put in a great performance to beat the dangerous Carlos Prates in April. He out-worked and tired out Prates, but was almost finished very late in the fifth once Prates’ high-powered offense finally started getting to him. Before that Machado Garry lost a decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov. He made Rakhmonov work for it, though, so much so that he came out of that loss with a lot of respect. That was the first loss in his career and it followed wins over Michael Page and Geoff Neal.
I don’t think Muhammad is going to bully Machado Garry like he did Edwards. Machado Garry is a lot bigger than Muhammad. He’s a massive Welterweight and he’ll have four inches of height over Muhammad. Machado Garry is also very intelligent and mobile, so he’s not going to put himself in many positions to be taken down. Muhammad is going to have to chase him, like Rakhmonov did and the strikers Page, Neal and Prates did, too.
Muhammad is not going to get tired chasing Machado Garry, but he might get hit a lot. Machado Garry is a very good sniper with his strikes, landing 4.77 sig. strikes a minute at a 54% accuracy clip while getting hit with just 2.77 sig. strikes a minute in return.
His striking differential is third in the division under Michael Morales and Daniel Rodriguez. Given his resume, it’s pretty impressive that Machado Garry is able to have such a good stat here. He held Prates to 63 sig. strikes across five rounds (2.52 a minute). Prates’ average is 3.77. He held Rakhmonov to 37 sig. strikes across five round (1.48 a minute). Rakhmonov averages 3.25.
Machado Garry is just too good at not being somewhere where he can be hit. And he’s great at landing offense on the fly, too. He hit Prates with 126 sig. strikes (86 to the head).
I think Machado Garry is going to find a lot of success sliding out of range of Muhammad’s ‘Canelo Hands’ in this one and I think he’s too big and too fast to get taken down a bunch.
He’s going to get the win and make the title picture at 170 lbs. even more murky.
Best bet: Ian Machado Garry moneyline (-290)
Volkan Oezdemir makes the main card at UFC Qatar. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Volkan Oezdemir (-250) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+190)
Oezdemir was totally out-classed, but not stopped, by Carlos Ulberg in his last fight. That was around one year ago. Prior to that, he KO’d Johnny Walker with a clean uppercut (see it here) and finished Bogdan Guskov with an rear-naked choke (see it here) in Guskov’s short-notice promotional debut.
Menifield is coming off a win over former hot prospect Oumar Sy (as a +500 underdog). Before that he won a split decision over Julius Walker (and earned a “Fight of the Night” bonus). Before those wins, he was stopped by both Azamat Murzakanov and Ulberg.
Feels like someone’s getting knocked out in this one.
Oezdemir and Menifield are both top ten in the division for knockdowns landed. Oezdemir lands more shots than Menifield, though (4.95 sig. strikes vs. 3.79) and Menifield is marginally more accrurate (53% vs. 48%).
I think it’s a toss up between who lands the first big punch and flattens the other one, but I do see that big KO featuring in this fight.
The round total for this is 2.5, which feels high given where my head is at. The over is +120 and the under is -152. Fight to end by KO/TKO is -130, though. That’s my best bet.
Best bet: Method of Victory – K/TKO (-130)
Jack Hermansson drops to Welterweight at UFC Qatar.
Jack Hermansson (+200) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-265)
Hermansson has fled down to Welterweight hoping to restart his UFC career. Last time out, the former Middleweight suffered a sickening KO from Gregory Rodrigues (see it here). Before that he took a decision over Joe Pyfer. The Pyfer fight came after a two year lay-off. He lost to Roman Dolidze, by TKO, prior to that lay-off. This will be the first time the 37 year-old has ever fought at Welterweight.
Orolbai is a newcomer to Welterweight, too. He’s here because he can’t make weight for Lightweight anymore. His last fight, a drubbing over Tofiq Musayev (see the finish here) had to be contested at 165 lbs. And before that, his epic war with Mateusz Rebecki (which he lost by split decision), was also at catchweight after Orolbai missed the Lightweight limit by 4 pounds.
Despite some of the context around Orolbai’s time at Lightweight, the size difference in this fight will be extremely notable. Hermansson is going to look like he’s a full weight class bigger than Orolbai. He’s three inches taller with three inches of reach and he’s just thicker and more muscley than the wirey Orolbai.
Age is also a significant factor in this one. Hermansson is 37 and, with 18 UFC fights and four (technical) knockout losses, he’s got some city miles on those years. Orolbai is a whole decade younger than him. Granted, Orolbai took a lot of punishment against Rebecki (and in his win against Elves Brener), but he’s going to have a lot more speed and spring to his step than the aging Joker.
The round total is 2.5 with the over at -166 and the under being +130. I think there’s a finish in this fight. Hermansson’s size might be too much for Orolbai. And Orolbai’s youth might be too much for Hermansson. I suppose those two might cancel each other out, but I have a feeling Orolbai will be able to handle the size better than Hermansson can handle the athleticism gap.
There should be some fun grappling exchanges on the ground and I can see one of those leading to a finish.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+130)
Shamil Gaziev looks to keep his run going at UFC Qatar.
Serghei Spivac (+124) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-158)
Spivac has been very up and down lately. He had a three-fight win streak snapped by a Ciryl Gane technical knockout in late 2023 (see it here). He then beat Marcin Tybura with a first round submission (see it here) and then he lost a first round technical knockout to Jailton Almeida (see it here). Last time out he dropped a decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Gaziev is on a two fight winning streak with a decision over Don’Tale Mayes and KO of Thomas Petersen (see it here). Before those fights he lost to Jairzinho Rozenstruik by retirement (due to gassing out). That is the only loss in his 15 fight MMA career.
It’s really hard to tell which verisons of these guys turn up. I suspect Gaziev, fighting in his part of the world, is more likely to fight to his potential and that his power will be too much for the somewhat chinny Spivac (67% of losses coming by T/KO).
Spivac will be hoping to drag Gaziev down and work for submissions. Gaziev has an 83% takedown defense, though. I think we could see Gaziev get to Spivac early (he has to if he doesn’t want to gas out!) and we might see a quick finish here.
Best bet: Shamil Gaziev moneyline (-158)
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UFC Qatar ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Asu Almabayev will enjoy some crowd support at UFC Qatar. AFP via Getty Images
Alex Perez (+172) vs. Asu Almabayev (-225)
Perez is returning to action here after well over a year on the side-lines due to a knee injury suffered against Tatsuro Taira in an APEX main card in 2024. Perez had earned that main event after an upset KO win over Matheus Nicolau. Perez had lost his three previous fights before that, but those were to Mohammad Mokaev, Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo. Over his career Perez has had Ian McCall-level bad luck with fights falling through (including a bout with Steve Erceg that was scheduled for August).
Almabayev’s wrestling was too much for Jose Ochoa last time out. He got a unanimous decision over him, a short notice opponent, in July. That saw him rebound from his loss to Manel Kape in March. That was weird fight, with Almabayev getting eye poked before being finished with strikes late on (see it here). That was his first and only loss in UFC and first loss since 2017.
I hate this as a return fight for Perez. Stuffing takedowns is really going to test that surgically repaired knee. And even though he’s known for that stoppage over Nicolau now, he’s not exactly a feared power puncher who can end this before the need to stuff a takedown arises.
I think there’s a lot to be desired of Almabayev when it comes to his potential to do something at Flyweight. His striking just isn’t there and he only lands 2.16 sig. strikes a minute. For someone who lands as many takedowns as he does (a crazy 4.66 per 15 minutes) you’d like to see him with a lot more strikes. The lack of strikes tells you he’s getting people down and then landing very little ground and pound. In his last fight he got Ochoa down seven times and had 9.26 minutes of control time. He only landed six sig. ground strikes in that fight. That’s pretty embarrassing.
Against Jose Johnson he landed six takedowns and had 11:24 minutes of control time. He only landed 11 sig. ground strikes in that fight.
For comparison’s sake, Tagir Ulanbekov (who is not particularly active himself) landed 13 sig. ground strikes in 6:49 minutes of control time against Clayton Carpenter.
This has me thinking that we’re going to a decision here, likely won by Almabayev in very boring fashion.
Best bet: Asu Almabayev by decision (+120)
Bogdan Grad might give us a war at UFC Qatar.
Luke Riley (-290) vs. Bogdan Grad (+215)
Grad lost a decision to Muhammad Naimov in June. Before that he won back-to-back fights with a TKO over Lucas Alexander (see it here) and a war with Michael Aswell on Contender Series.
Riley is a Cage Warriors product. He’s 11-0 with all fights happening with the yellow gloves on.
No matter what happens, I feel like Grad is going to make it fun. This is an odd match-up, though (and it’s not the only one). This card has seen an influx of fighters making their pure UFC debut (no Contender Series, no TUF, no Road to Asia).
It’s very hard to judge Riley as a fighter, even though I do have a lot of respect for Cage Warriors. We saw Jordan Vucenic get sent packing recently, only to walk back into Cage Warriors and win again.
Grad knows how to win in the Octagon. He also knows how to lose. I’m not sure how much he thinks about any of that, though. Still, I’m very surprised to see Riley as a the favorite in this fight.
I’m just going to bet that this thing is close and goes deep, if not to a decision.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-110)
Raffael Cerquiera is fighting for his job at UFC Qatar.
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1450) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (+700)
Cerqueira has gone 0-3 in UFC since being signed on short notice. He was TKO’d by Ibo Aslan (see it here) and Modestas Bukauskas. He’s coming of a unanimous decision loss to Julius Walker. He was undefeated before getting called up to the big show.
Yakhyaev is 24 and 7-0. He scored a 30-second TKO on Contender Series in August. His regional wins include some appearances with Ares FC and ACA.
I have no idea what to make of this fight. I can’t vouch for Yakhyaev’s skills given how little exposure he’s had at a high level. I can vouch for how out of his depth Cerquiera has looked since arriving, though. It feels like he’s been set up as a lamb to a slaughter more than once now.
There’s no point taking Yakhyaev with those odds and I’ve not seen anything from Cerquiera to make me feel like he’s worth a long shot bet.
The round total is 1.5. I’ll take the over, and its high odds, since Cerquiera might be starting to get comfortable with the Octagon and since Yakhyaev fought a can on Contender Series and only has five other fights to his name.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+215)
The Gooch returns at UFC Qatar!
Kyoji Horiguchi (+162) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-210)
Horiguchi’s first run in UFC, between 2013 and 2016, saw him go 7-1. The one loss was to Flyweight GOAT Demetrious Johnson (with a last second armbar submission). Horiguchi won three fights in UFC after that before jumping ship for the upstart RIZIN promotion in 2017. He’s gone 16-3 since then, notching wins over Ian McCall, Darrion Caldwell, Kai Asakura, and Sergio Pettis. He also won titles with RIZIN and Bellator.
Ulanbekov had his hands full with Azat Maksum in June, but won nonetheless. That stretched his record to 17-2. His recent wins are over Clayton Carpenter and Cody Durden. His only losses are to Tim Elliott and Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
This is a really tough fight to call.
We all know what Ulanbekov’s game-plan is for this one. He averages 2.94 takedowns per 15 minutes. He only has a 38% accuracy with his takedowns, though. A lot of that is due to Maksum stuffing all eight of his takedowns in his last fight.
Horiguchi is a great wrestler himself. He’s probably second best to Ulanbekov, though. Horiguchi is certainly the more dynamic striker, though. Ulanbekov’s striking is pretty basic and he absorbs about the same significant strikes as he lands per minute (3.3).
I knew Horiguchi was past his prime, at 35, but I was surprised to see that Ulanbekov is just a year younger than him. I wasn’t surprised to see the size difference, though. Horiguchi could probably make Atomweight. He’s giving up two inches of height and four inches of reach to Ulanbekov.
I think Ulanbekov’s size and wrestling edge probably means we see him get those takedowns and ride out a rather dull decision to spoil the Gooch’s return.
Best bet: Tagir Ulanbekov moneyline (-210)
Aleksandre represents the Topuria family at UFC Qatar. Getty Images
Bekzat Almakhan (-104) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-122)
Almakhan knocked out the very tough Brad Katona in just over a minute back in May. That was the first stoppage loss of Katona’s career. Almakhan lost his UFC debut in 2024. But that was against Umar Nurmagomedov, so I think we can give him a break there. He also knocked down Nurmagomedov in the first round.
Topuria, brother to Lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, won his UFC debut in February, beating Colby Thicknesse. That got him to 6-1 as a pro.
This is a boxer versus wrestler with Almakhan hoping he can land on Topuria before he gets planted on his back. If he does get taken down, he probably stays on the mat for most of the fight.
Topuria seems decent enough on his feet that he won’t be getting teed off on like we saw with Katona. I think he’s going to do a better job of surviving in Almakhan’s world than vice versa.
Best bet: Aleksandre Topuria moneyline (-122)
Ryan Loder is still waiting to follow up his TUF award with a win, does that happen at UFC Qatar?
Ryan Loder (+108) vs. Ismail Naurdiev (-138)
Loder won The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) by wrestling all over Robert Valentin. In his second UFC fight, he was blown away by Azamat Bekoev in the first round (See it here). He’s come to mixed martial arts (MMA) late — after a long career in wrestling — and is just 7-2 at 34 years-old.
Naurdiev lost a weird fight to Jun Yong Park in June. He landed a pretty egregious illegal knee on “The Iron Turtle” and was rightfully docked a point. That helped Park earn the decision over him. Before that, Naurdiev took a decision over Bruno Silva.
I fear for Loder against anyone who is a decent striker. But, I think he’ll be alright against an OK striker, who also relies on his wrestling. Loder is the better wrestler here and he’s also a lot bigger.
I think he might rag-doll Naurdiev around, since I don’t think he’ll be getting sparked too hard on the feet. Naurdiev has zero finishes in UFC, so he’s going to have to do something very out of character to get one over on Loder here.
Best bet: Ryan Loder moneyline (+108)
Nurullo Aliev gets a newcomer at UFC Qatar. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Nurullo Aliev (-320) vs. Shem Rock (+235)
Aliev out-wrestled Joe Solecki for a unanimous decision in January. That’s his third win in the Octagon, including his Contender Series appearance. He was on Contender Series back in 2022. He’s struggled to stay fit and compete since then. He’s seen fights with Mateusz Rebecki and Yanal Ashmouz fall through.
Rock has been signed out of OKTAGON. He’s coming off a quality win there, beating Atilla Korkmaz by split decision. There’s not many other recognizable names on his record, though, even for those plugged into the Euro scene.
Rock is another weird signing for this card. Both these guys are pretty unproven, but Rock’s lack of wrestling pedigree is probably going to hurt him here.
Best bet: Nurullo Aliev moneyline (-320)
Nicolas Dalby heads to UFC Qatar on the back of a brutal loss.
Saygid Izagakhmaev (-350) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+265)
Dalby is on a two-fight losing skid. In April, he was floored by a Randy Brown right hook (see it here). Before that, he lost a split decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov. That was in June 2024. His prior fight to those losses was his amazing upset over Gabriel Bonfim (see it here) in 2023.
Izagakhmaev, meanwhile, is coming to UFC from ONE. Though, he hasn’t competed since 2022. In his last fight, he TKO’d Shinya Aoki in the first round. He’s 31 and 22-2 as a professional. His losses are to Carlston Harris and Elias Silverio. Most of his wins are on the Russian regional circuit.
Dalby is the underdog here against the newcomer. Izagakhmaev seems to fit the profile of someone the Qataris want UFC to bring in and win, though. I’m not picking him at those odds, sight unseen, though. Give me Dalby to pull off another upset.
Best bet: Nicolas Dalby moneyline (+265)
Denzel Freeman swaps the SmartCage for the Octagon at UFC Qatar. Getty Images
Marek Bujlo (+154) vs. Denzel Freeman (-200)
Bujlo, who fights out of Poland, is another fighter who has been signed to UFC without coming through any of the feeder systems. He’s 32 and 6-0. He’s not been on any of the big shows in Europe (KSW, OKTAGON, etc.) or even the tier below that (ACA, Levels). He comes to MMA off of BJJ. He’s one of the best grapplers in Poland and has medaled at the IBJJF Championships.
Freeman is 34 and 6-1. He just won the LFA Heavyweight title by TKO’ing Hugo Cunha. He also beat Steven Asplund, by submission, in LFA. He was 1-1 during a stint in PFL in 2023. His time there included a 27 second KO of Raiden Kovacs.
Bujlo seems the more interesting prospect of the two. I’ll take him, hoping he doesn’t have a glass chin and he’s able to get Freeman down and do some big man BJJ.
Best bet: Marek Bujlo moneyline (+154)
Hopefully Nina Drama hasn’t made her way to UFC Qatar. Getty Images
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Ian Machado-Garry to win by KO/TKO (+440)
Machado-Garry has seen other Welterweight contenders make impressive claims for a title shot. Now, it’s his turn. I think he’s going to counter Muhammad a lot in this fight and outland him by a big number. I’m not super confident he gets a finish. But if he were ever to get a big finish, now would be the time, or else he might never get over the hump and beat out the flashier fighters vying for a date with Makhachev.
Arman Tsarukyan to win by Submission in Rounds 1 or 2 (+750)
I’m really bullish on Tsarukyan getting the submission in this fight. These odds for it to happen early feel too good to be true. Getting rounds one or two is also huge (thanks Fanduel).
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield to end in first 60 seconds (+1500)
Oezdemir famously likes to say he has “no time” and likes to finish things quickly. Menifield was finished in 12 seconds by Carlos Ulberg and he beat Misha Cirkunov and Fabio Cherant in little more than one minute. He also won his Contender Series fight with an eight-second knockout. I think there’s a great chance someone goes down off a big shot early.
MIDDLE EAST MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to action on Sat., Nov. 22, 2025, with an exciting main event set to headline UFC Qatar inside ABHA Arena in Doha. In the ESPN+-streamed main event, Lightweight contenders Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker clash in a high-stakes, five-round bout. The co-main event features a Welterweight showdown between Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry, with future 170-pound title shot implications on the line. The card will also showcase a Light Heavyweight showdown pitting Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield, a Heavyweight collision featuring Serghei Spivac vs. Shamil Gaziev, and much more! The start time is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard) and 1 p.m. ET (main card).
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