Bullpens are important. Blow a lead in the eighth inning, and a good bullpen suddenly feels like the most important thing in baseball. And that’s especially true in the postseason. It’s one reason nearly every contender, to some extent, seems to be eyeing available relievers.
But Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning that the market for relievers — especially this market for relievers — is forcing teams to make a difficult decision: what’s a truly elite reliever really worth? The Twins and Guardians are, of course, asking for a ton of talent to move Emmanuel Clase or Griffin Jax. Are they really worth the price? Or, is it better to acquire a slightly underperforming rental like Ryan Helsley at a lower price? Ken writes:
✍️ Relievers are so volatile, so prone to fluctuate from season to season, even month to month, additional years of club control matter less than they do with more stable performers.
The teams peddling those pitchers, of course, see it differently, valuing them as long-term assets in trade discussions and asking for big returns.
This market has a fascinating mix of seemingly available relievers. Multi-year solutions like Clase, Jax, Jhoan Duran and Mason Miller are probably at the top of the class — though the asking prices, perhaps, suggest they’re not really all that available — but there are other closers like Helsely, Kyle Finnegan, Raisel Iglesias and perhaps Robert Suarez who could be available as rentals (with varying degrees of success this season). Seranthony Domínguez is interesting if you can stomach some walks. David Bednar and Dennis Santana have become two of the best trade chips for the Pirates, and the Rockies have Jake Bird, Victor Vodnik and Seth Halvorsen to offer.
Again, though, what’s it going to take to actually make a deal? And which of these guys is going to flourish for the next two months, and which are going to fall flat? The role is notoriously prone to ups and downs. Again, here’s Ken:
✍️ Not all of those relievers will change teams. The perception within the industry is that the Guardians and Twins will not move one or more of their top relievers unless they win the deal. As The Athletic’s Andy McCullough writes, the Guardians can be such a difficult trade partner; some other front offices refer to them as “The Cleveland Grind Machine.” The Twins, Pirates and Rockies are not exactly known for their deal-making prowess.
The Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Mets are among the many contenders that could be interested in meaningful bullpen upgrades, and the Red Sox had a minor scare last night when Aroldis Chapman had to leave a game with back tightness. Bullpens are incredibly valuable. But what a reliever is worth on the trade market remains one of the deadline’s most difficult questions.
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In looking to add a top reliever at the trade deadline, contenders face a conundrum