The 2025 MLB All-Star Game and amateur draft are in the books, and the trade deadline is exactly two weeks away. After that we’ll get into the dog days of summer and the various postseason and awards races. While we wait out the rest of the All-Star break, here are our bold predictions for the trade deadline and second half of the 2025 regular season. Come with me, won’t you?
Prediction: Milwaukee will trade for Eugenio Suárez.
Rookie Caleb Durbin has come on strong the last few weeks, so the Brewers don’t absolutely need a third baseman, but why not upgrade when a division title is within reach and you haven’t won a postseason series since 2018? Trading for a third baseman when you don’t need a third baseman qualifies as bold, I suppose. The D-backs are kinda sorta maybe hanging around the wild-card race. That said, the trade market is light on quality infielders. Cashing Suárez in as a trade chip in a seller’s market makes sense. I’ll say Suárez goes to the Brewers and the main piece in the return is righty Tobias Myers, who has been squeezed out of Milwaukee’s deep rotation. An overpay? Yeah, probably, but whoever gets Suárez will have to win a bidding war.
Prediction: Nick Kurtz will lead all first basemen in home runs.
The A’s selected Kurtz with the No. 4 pick in last summer’s draft and he’s been an instant difference-maker. He was called up on April 23 and took a .257/.333/.558 line and 17 home runs into the All-Star break. Those 17 home runs are 12th most in baseball since the day Kurtz was called up, and they’re fourth most among all first baseman for the full season. Only Pete Alonso (21), Spencer Torkelson (21), and Michael Busch (19) have more. Kurtz spotted those guys four weeks and is still right on their tails. So, for this bold prediction, I’ll say Kurtz passes those three and finishes 2025 with more home runs than any other first baseman. Sutter Health Park in Sacramento has played a huge role in Kurtz’s power output (13 homers at home and four on the road), but the A’s aren’t moving. He’ll continue to play home games there the rest of the year.
Prediction: The Braves will set an MLB record for pitchers used.
It has been a tough season for the Braves generally, and also their pitchers specifically. Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, and AJ Smith-Shawver have all suffered major injuries, setup man Joe Jiménez hasn’t pitched because of knee surgery, and they’ve cycled through a small army of spot starters and relievers. Atlanta has used 31 different pitchers this year, fourth most in baseball behind the Mets (37), Dodgers (35), and Diamondbacks (32). This bold prediction calls for the Braves to zoom by those three teams and use a record number of pitchers this season. The record: 45 by last year’s Marlins. Can Atlanta use 15 new pitchers in the second half? Absolutely. I believe in them. The trade deadline is coming, they’ll continue shuttling relievers in and out, etc. When in doubt, take the over on pitchers used.
Prediction: San Diego will trade for Zach Eflin and Cedric Mullins.
Who will the Padres trade to get Eflin and Mullins to address their rotation and outfield needs? I have no earthly idea. Top prospects Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas are presumably off-limits, so maybe some combination of second-tier prospects Boston Bateman, Humberto Cruz, and Kash Mayfield? I’m not sure. I just know the Orioles are likely to move their veteran rentals, Eflin and Mullins included, and to never bet against Padres GM A.J. Preller making a big trade. A fun question is whether Preller would try to expand our boldly predicted trade to include closer Félix Bautista. He paid big for Jason Adam and Tanner Scott at least year’s deadline. Who’s to say he wouldn’t do it again for Bautista this year?
Prediction: The Guardians and Red Sox will swap Emmanuel Clase for Jarren Duran.
Boston has more good outfielders than outfield spots and the Guardians can spare an end-of-game reliever. I will not predict a one-for-one trade — I’ll say there will be more pieces involved to even things out — but Clase for Duran will be the meat of it. The Red Sox get a late-inning dominator and clear the way for a Roman Anthony/Ceddanne Rafaela/Wilyer Abreu outfield. The Guardians get 3 ½ years of a power/speed threat who can play center field, which is exactly the kind of player they can never afford in free agency. Cleveland won’t give Clase away. To trade him, they’ll need to get multiple years of an all-around impact player, and that’s Duran. The Red Sox would upgrade the bullpen, which takes on increased important in October, which is where they’re headed.
Prediction: Chicago will trade for Seth Lugo.
The Royals went into the All-Star break with the second-best ERA+ (118) and the fifth-worst OPS+ (88). They’ve gotten terrific pitching and it’s going to waste because of a poor offense. For shame. The underlying numbers aren’t as spectacular, though Lugo has been just about as good this year as last year, when he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. The trade market figures to be short on quality starters. Cashing in Lugo, who has a $15 million player option for 2026, as a trade chip may be the best way for Kansas City to get the offensive help they so desperately need. I will boldly predict Lugo goes to the Cubbies, who need a top starter in the wake of Justin Steele’s Tommy John surgery. Outfielder Owen Caissie and lefty Jordan Wicks will headline the return. Caissie is the kind of power hitter the Royals need and Wick can step into the rotation post-Lugo.
Prediction: Cincinnati will trade for Luis Robert Jr.
This one almost feels like fait accompli, so I’m not sure it qualifies as a bold prediction. The Reds tried to get Robert in the offseason and I assume they’ll try again at the deadline given a) their need for an outfielder, and b) the price coming down given Robert’s poor season. He took a .190/.275/.325 slash line into the break, which is just terrible. That said, outfielders with less upside will be traded in the coming weeks. There is no chance the White Sox will pick up Robert’s $20 million option after the season, so they figure to trade him for whatever they can get at the deadline. The Reds need an outfielder and they’re right in the mix of the wild-card race. Robert would be a nice low-cost move with a chance to pay huge dividends. Bonus bold prediction: Robert will have a higher WAR with his new team after the trade deadline than he’s had the last two years combined with Chicago (1.4).
Prediction: The Rockies will not set a record for home losses.
Hey, the Rockies have been regular bad the last few weeks rather than historically terrible. After going 9-50(!) in their first 59 games, the Rockies are 13-24 since, which isn’t even the worst record in baseball. The Nationals are 10-27 during that time. The 13-24 record works out to a 105-loss pace. That’s bad, obviously, but we see 105-loss teams all the time. The Rockies are, however, 10-36 at Coors Field. Every other team has at least 18 wins at home. This bold prediction says the Rockies will not — not — set a new record for home losses. Here are the most home losses in a season:
2019 Detroit Tigers: 591939 St. Louis Browns: 592024 Chicago White Sox: 582003 Detroit Tigers: 581962 New York Mets: 58
The Rockies must go 12-23 in their final 35 home games to merely tie the record for home losses and avoid setting a new record. Considering they have 12 wins in their last 54 home dating back to last season, this figures to be a tall order, and that’s what makes this prediction bold. Colorado won’t be the first team in history to lose 60 games in front of their home fans. It has been foretold.
Prediction: Tarik Skubal will win the pitching Triple Crown again.
A year ago, Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, led the American League in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (228). That’s the pitching Triple Crown, which isn’t as rare or significant an accomplishment as the hitting Triple Crown, but is still impressive nonetheless. Skubal has been even better this year (he has a lower ERA and a higher strikeout rate), and I am boldly predicting he will win the pitching Triple Crown yet again. Back-to-back pitching Triple Crowns have happened, but it is very rare:
Roger Clemens: 1997 and 1998Sandy Koufax: 1965 and 1966Lefty Grove: 1930 and 1931Grover Alexander: 1915 and 1916
The greatest pitchers ever, basically. Those are the guys who win back-to-back pitching Triple Crowns. It’s a wee bit early to call Skubal an all-time great, but he is the most dominant pitcher in the game today. Dominant enough that he’ll become only the fifth pitcher ever to lead his league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts in two straight years.
Prediction: The Astros will announce a Cam Smith extension.
The Kyle Tucker trade is turning into a major win-win. Tucker has been fantastic for the first-place Cubs, and the Astros are getting great production from Smith and Isaac Paredes. Smith, the No. 14 overall pick in last summer’s draft, is hitting .277/.347/.418 with seven home runs this season, and he’s been outstanding since June 1: .296/.346/.451 in 37 games. He’s done that while learning a new position on the fly (right field). For this bold prediction, I have the Astros locking Smith up to a long-term extension. In-season extensions are uncommon, especially in the second half, but Smith is a special player and I don’t think Houston will wait to act. How does eight years and $80 million sound? That’s a bit more than the Braves gave Michael Harris II (eight years and $72 million) in the middle of his first big-league season three years ago.
Prediction: Tyler Bremner will make his MLB debut.
Who is Tyler Bremner? Tyler Bremner was the No. 2 overall pick in the amateur draft this past week. It was a bit of a surprise pick, not that he was an undeserving first rounder. The UC Santa Barbara righty sports a lively fastball, a very good changeup, and a slider. Angels draftees Chase Silseth (2021), Zach Neto (2022), and Nolan Schanuel (2023) were the first players from their draft classes to reach the big leagues, and Schanuel debuted a few weeks after being selected No. 11 overall. This is what the Angels do. They get their draft picks to the majors quickly, and I boldy prediction Bremner will finish this season in the big-league bullpen the way Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale did their draft years.
Prediction: The Dodgers will trade for Ryan Helsley.
Tanner Scott has been a rollercoaster this year and the Dodgers figure to import bullpen help at the deadline, which makes them like every other contender. The Cardinals, at 51-46, are only 1 ½ games behind the third wild-card spot, so a full-on sell-off at the trade deadline won’t happen. Helsley will be a free agent after the season though, and losing him for nothing but a draft pick (if St. Louis even makes him the qualifying offer) would be tough to swallow. The Cardinals strike me as a prime candidate to buy and sell at the deadline. Trade Helsley while bringing in relief help elsewhere, that sort of thing. The Dodgers need late-inning help even with Blake Treinen on the mend. That much is clear. St. Louis has a quality rental reliever to offer.
Prediction: San Francisco will trade for Sandy Alcantara.
It’s too early to know whether POBO Buster Posey is a good executive, though I do like his style. He spent big to land Willy Adames in the offseason and swung a blockbuster trade for Rafael Devers a few weeks back. Going big doesn’t always yield the desired results (see: Adames’ slash line), but neither does going smart and sensible, as the Farhan Zaidi era showed. For this next bold prediction, I will say Posey continues to big-game hunt and lands Alcantara at the trade deadline. The Marlins are going to move him, that is a near certainty and not at all bold. It’s Posey and the Giants swinging big and beating out teams with deeper farm systems to get it done. How does a trade package headlined by slugging first base prospect Bryce Eldridge and lefty Carson Whisenhunt sound? The Devers trade makes Eldridge expendable (or more expendable, anyway) and Whisenhunt is the cost of doing business. Adding Alcantara, even this year’s version, to Robbie Ray and Logan Webb makes for a formidable 1-2-3 punch.
Prediction: Byron Buxton will set a record for most stolen bases without getting caught.
The long-awaited Buxton superstar season is finally here. Buxton hit .289/.351/.574 with 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases in the first half and ranks eighth among all position players with 4.1 WAR. He put an exclamation point on his first half by hitting for the cycle on his bobblehead day. How cool is that? Buxton is a perfect 17 for 17 stealing bases this season and I boldly predict he will set a record for stolen bases without being caught. Here are the most steals without being thrown out in a single season:
Trea Turner, 2023 Phillies: 30Chase Utley, 2009 Phillies: 23Alcides Escobar, 2013 Royals: 22Quintin Berry, 2012 Tigers: 21Kevin McReynolds, 1988 Mets: 21
I have no idea how many bases Buxton will steal this year (35? 40? 50?), but I’m saying it will be at least 31 and he will not get caught a single time. He has always been one of the most electric players in the sport when healthy. He’s always been capable of what he’s doing this year. I’m glad we’re finally Buxton’s talent fully shine.
Prediction: The Mets and Phillies will finished tied atop the NL East.
Who wants another NL East tiebreaker scenario? The Braves and Mets finished tied for the division title in 2022, and last season the Braves, Mets, and Diamondbacks finished in a three-way tie for two wild-card spots. Surely you remember the doubleheader in Atlanta the day after the end of the regular season. The Braves and Mets split the two games while the D-backs watched at home, hoping one team would sweep and send them to the postseason. I’ll call it three tiebreakers involving the NL East in the last four years in this bold prediction. The Mets and Phillies have been trading places atop the division for weeks now. Neither team seems to want to run away with it. It’s only natural that they’ll finish with the same record, in which case the NL East title will go to whichever team wins the season series. Alas and alack, MLB did away with Game 163 tiebreakers in the current collective bargaining agreement. Now all ties are decided mathematically. Think of what we missed last year with the three-team tie!
Prediction: Aaron Judge will reach base 350 times.
Judge went into the All-Star break leading baseball in batting average by 23 points, on-base percentage by 37 points, slugging percentage by 99 points, and OPS by 183 points. He’s also leading baseball in times on base by a lot. Judge has reached base safely 198 times, comfortably ahead of second place Rafael Devers (170). This bold prediction says Judge will reach base 350 times this year, something that has been done only six times in history:
Babe Ruth, 1923 Yankees: 379Barry Bonds, 2004 Giants: 376Billy Hamilton, 1894 Athletics: 362Ted Williams, 1949 Red Sox: 358Barry Bonds, 2002 Giants: 356Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 352
Judge is currently on pace to reach base 334 times, so this bold prediction has him picking up the pace in the second half. I figure he’ll get intentionally walked more often as the postseason races heat up and teams simply stop pitching to him. Judge has already been intentionally walked 24 times this season, 12 more than any other player, and the most since Mike Trout was walked 25 times intentionally in 2018. The intentional walks will go up and 350 times Judge will reach base safely.
Prediction: Paul Skenes will finish with more WAR than wins.
The team the Pirates have put on the field around Skenes is so bad it makes me mad. They’re on pace to finish with a worse record this year than the last two years despite having arguably the best pitcher in the world on a league minimum salary. Skenes has been terrific this season, pitching to an MLB-leading 2.01 ERA with 131 strikeouts in 121 innings, but he’s 4-8 because the Pirates just do not score runs behind him. So, this bold prediction says Skenes will finish the season with more WAR than wins, which is true right now (4.8 WAR vs. 4 wins) and has been done only once by a qualified pitcher in baseball’s Modern Era (since 1901): Eddie Smith went 4-17 with 4.2 WAR for the 1937 Athletics. He threw 196 â…” innings with a 3.94 ERA for a team that went 54-97-3. Skenes finishing with, say, 7.5 WAR while going 7-14 because the Pirates have one of the worst offenses in baseball seems doable, and it will say so much more about the Pirates than it will Skenes.
Prediction: Cal Raleigh will hit between 59-61 homers.
Raleigh took an incredible 38 home runs into the All-Star break, second most all-time behind Barry Bonds’ 39 first-half homers in 2001. Those 38 homers are already the ninth most by a catcher in a full season, and Raleigh got there by the All-Star break. He is currently on pace to hit 64 homers, which would break Aaron Judge’s American League single-season record (62 in 2022). This bold prediction says Raleigh will fall short of the record, and will instead finish with 59, 60, or 61 homers. That would shatter the single-season record for a catcher (Salvador Perez‘s 48 in 48 in 2021) and, more importantly, means we’ll get an honest-to-goodness record chase. Raleigh will make a legit run at Judge’s record. I think he’ll fall short because he’s a catcher and the wear and tear is brutal, T-Mobile Park is a tough park for home runs, and teams will probably start intentionally walking him more in the coming weeks. Still, a 59-plus homer season by a catcher is preposterous. This is an all-time great home run season period. Add in the catcher component and it is simply remarkable.
Prediction: Junior Caminero will go 32-32.
Caminero has only five stolen bases this season, though I’m not predicting he will hit 32 homers and steal 32 bases. No, in this case 32-32 refers to 32 homers and 32 double plays. Caminero has grounded into an MLB-leading 25 double plays already this season, 10 more than any other player. From 2021-24, the MLB leader averaged 27 double plays, and only one player in the last 10 years reached 30 double plays (Carlos Correa had 30 in 2022). Caminero is almost got there before the All-Star break. Only four players have ever gone 30-30:
Ivan Rodriguez, 1999 Rangers: 35 HR and 31 GIDPTony Armas Sr., 1983 Red Sox: 36 HR and 31 GIDPJim Rice, 1983 Red Sox: 39 HR and 31 GIDPDave Winfield, 1983 Yankees: 32 HR and 30 GIDP
Must’ve been something in the AL East water in 1983. Anyway, Caminero is on pace to hit 38 homers and ground into 42 double plays, so this bold prediction is within reach. I just assume the double play pace will slow down at some point (it has to, right?). And, to be clear, Caminero going 32-32 would not diminish what is an incredible season for the 22 year old. Lots of guys have very productive seasons while striking out a ton. Caminero is doing it while hitting into double plays. That’s the way it goes sometimes.
Prediction: The Rangers will miss the postseason despite having a better run differential than at least three teams that make it.
The Rangers are all about run prevention. They’ve allowed only 3.57 runs per game this season, the fewest in baseball, and they’ve scored only 4.05 runs per game. That is seventh fewest in baseball. The pitching prevents runs and so too does the offense. Thanks mostly to their pitching, the Rangers are only 3 ½ games behind the third wild-card spot, so a postseason berth is within reach. Alas, this bold prediction says Texas will fall short, but they will do so with a strong run differential. Their plus-47 run differential is tenth best in baseball. Every year, a team or two sneaks into the postseason with a negative run differential. It’ll happen again this year. The Rangers will keep up their superb run prevention but lose too many one and two-run games because of the offense, so the end result will be not enough wins to reach the postseason and a better run differential than at least three teams that make it. A frustrating outcome, that would be. Sorry, Rangers fans.
Prediction: Toronto will hold the best record in the AL for at least one day.
In the span of 40 days the Blue Jays went from eight games back in the AL East to 3 ½ games up, and they took a two-game division lead into the All-Star break. If not for the Red Sox’s 10-game winning streak to close out the first half, Toronto would be the hottest team in baseball. They’re so hot, in fact, that I boldly predict they will spend at least one day atop the American League standings. Right now, the Blue Jays are 3 ½ games behind the Tigers for the top spot, which is a smaller margin than I realized. The Blue Jays are very good and also the Tigers have the AL Central title in the bag, so I suspect they will take their foot off the gas in September. Rest some players, hold postseason roster auditions, etc. Toronto is playing well and the Tigers not having the pressure to chase every last win will open the door for the Blue Jays to sit in the AL’s top seed at some point.
Prediction: The Nationals will finish 71-91.
Third time’s a charm? The Nationals went 71-91 in 2023 and 71-91 in 2024. I’m going to say they’ll finish 71-91 again in 2025, and hey, that’s good news! Washington entered the break with a 38-58 record, putting them on pace to go 64-98. To finish 71-91 for the third straight season, the Nationals have to go 34-33 the rest of the way. How often do we see a young team play .500-ish ball over the final two months and use that as a springboard into contention the next year? That is my bold prediction. The Nationals play their two best months of baseball in quite a while to close out 2025.