Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. This week, there are no Thursday games, so we’re having a Puck Picks Wednesday! The goal isn’t just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I’ll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

With that said, last was a good one. We went 4-2 for a gain of 2.9 units. We seem to be failing at our SGPs in this column (last week HIschier and Bratt let us down – yet they came through in each game after!). That brings the season record to 34–28 for +2.2 units. 

Now let’s dive into tonight’s Puck Picks. 

Mikey Eyssimont 2+ Shots (-175, 1.5u)

Eyssimont remains in Boston’s bottom six, but his willingness to fire pucks whenever he gains the offensive zone keeps him consistently in range of this line. He’s averaging 2.3 SOG per game over his last 10 and nearly 4 SOG per game across his last four, showing an uptick in confidence and usage. He also shoots more frequently on the road than at home. Eyssimont should be able to generate the volume needed for 2+.

Matthew Schaefer Point (+100, 1u)

In the same game, I like Schaefer to break his pointless drought. Schaefer has driven a significant portion of New York’s improved offense this season, despite going pointless in five straight games. Over that span, the Islanders have generated 1.7 on-ice expected goals per game with him out there (on-ice), along with a strong 64% xG share. He’s been involved in the creation of chances but simply hasn’t been rewarded yet. Against a Bruins team that has shown defensive leaks in transition, this is a strong positive-regression spot at even money.

Tyson Foerster Anytime Goal (+300, 0.4u)

Foerster has seen a meaningful bump in usage, skating on what has effectively become Philadelphia’s top line with Noah Cates and Travis Konecny at both even strength and on the power play. He’s averaging two individual scoring chances per game over his last nine, and he’s converted on that recent volume with three goals in his last three games. Even though I like Florida to limit the Flyers shots and opportunities, Florida’s goaltending has been inconsistent and leaky during this stretch, making this a good spot to ride his finishing talent while he remains in a prime scoring role.

No PPP Parlay: Hagel / Olofsson / Luke Hughes (-173, 3u)

All three players are on their team’s second power-play units, with each PP2 group receiving a much smaller share of PPTOI than the top units, less than 25%. Despite that, their prices are still inflated as if they’re eating top-unit minutes—particularly Hagel, who may never find himself on that top power play so long as he is eating minutes at even strength and shorthanded. With limited deployment and usage, their true probabilities are far below the posted lines. This remains a strong market to attack, and the combined parlay reflects significant value if we are given fair parlay odds.

Nick Paul Anytime Goal (+335, 0.2u)

Paul doesn’t need volume to score; he generates most of his goals right at the net-front, where he thrives on rebounds, tips, and chaos plays. With a spot on Tampa’s top power-play unit tonight, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to station himself in the crease and capitalize on second-chance looks. At +335, his finishing style and expected PP role make this a worthwhile small-unit stab.

Mika Zibanejad Under 2.5 Shots (-160, 1.3u)

The Rangers draw the toughest possible matchup for individual shot volume. Carolina suppresses shots at elite levels, dominating puck possession and shot attempts while forcing opponents to the perimeter. Zibanejad’s recent logs—2, 2, 0, 3, and 1 SOG—show a player consistently landing below this line even in friendlier matchups. The Canes’ defensive profile makes this Under the correct side.

SGP: Mark Scheifele & Kyle Connor 1+ Point Each (-115, 1.2u)

Scheifele and Connor remain one of the most correlated duos in the league, with the Connor–Scheifele–Vilardi line driving elite offensive results and regularly converting chances above expected due to sheer talent and chemistry. Washington has been a tough defensive team this season, but Winnipeg’s top line has shown the ability to break through structured defenses. We’ve taken our lumps on SGP combos in Puck Picks this year, but this is a high-correlation pairing in a strong usage spot. 

Moritz Seider Point (-115, 1.1u)

Seider has reclaimed his spot on Detroit’s top power-play unit after Axel Sandin-Pelikka’s brief run on PP1 failed to generate results. He’s been red hot with 8 points in his last 6 games, going pointless in just one outing during that span. His offensive involvement has also taken a noticeable leap this season, with his shot rate up 25% year over year.

What’s driving a lot of this production is the quality of his attempts. Seider owns an excellent 69% Fenwick-to-Corsi ratio, meaning a large share of his attempts are getting through shot blockers—well above the typical sub-60% rate for defensemen. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 5 unblocked shot attempts per game, many of which translate directly into scoring chances. With this level of usage, volume, and PP1 deployment, his point prop priced at -115 is great value, especially against a Nashville team that is bottom-five in Goals Against.

Beckett Sennecke Point (-110, 1.3u) & 2+ Points (+480, 0.2u)

Sennecke is skating on a loaded top line with Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson—two emerging stars who tilt the ice every shift. What really stands out is that Sennecke is ahead of Gauthier on the depth chart for the top power-play unit, giving him premium scoring exposure. Comparing his point line at -110 to Gauthier’s -220, the value gap is too strong to ignore. With Vancouver down to their reserve options in net, the matchup further boosts his multi-point ceiling. That makes the 2+ points at +480 worth a small play as well.

Braeden Bowman Goal (+270, 0.4u)

Bowman continues to show outstanding chemistry with Jack Eichel and remains firmly entrenched both on the top line and on the first power-play unit. We’ve already cashed Bowman goal props at +390, +340, and +320 since this deployment shift. At +270, the market is catching up, but the value is still there. His usage, shot volume, and confidence all support continuing to play this number down to +250. Given his scoring instincts—and yes, his childhood admiration for Ovechkin—this is a line I’m staying on.

Good luck if you’re tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday’s column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you’re willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.

Ryan Brudner

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