TSX rallies into year-end on easing volatility

Jamie Murray, president of The Murray Wealth Group, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the outlook for markets heading to the year-end.

The TSX is tracking toward a record close for 2025 as seasonal strength, easing volatility and a softer U.S. dollar support Canadian equities into year-end. Technical signals for the S&P 500 point to slower upside, with heavy index concentration and leadership fatigue weighing on momentum.

BNN Bloomberg spoke with Jamie Murray, president of The Murray Wealth Group, about what’s driving the divergence between the TSX and S&P 500, the impact of year-end positioning and where he sees opportunity among Canadian stocks.

Key TakeawaysThe TSX is tracking toward a record close for 2025, supported by resource strength and improved trade sentiment.S&P 500 momentum is slowing as key index heavyweights struggle to break higher, creating room for Canadian outperformance.December seasonality remains favourable, with the TSX posting gains in 24 of the past 30 years and volatility typically easing after U.S. Thanksgiving.Traders see strong odds of a December rate cut, reinforcing a soft-landing outlook and supporting commodities.Murray highlighted three Canadian stock ideas: Doman Building Materials, Linamar and NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT.Jamie Murray, president of The Murray Wealth Group Jamie Murray, president of The Murray Wealth Group

Read the full transcript below:

ANDREW: Our market hit a record high yesterday, as measured by the TSX Composite Index. But our guest says when you look at technical factors affecting the S&P 500, the picture may not be so bright. Let’s get more from Jamie Murray, president of The Murray Wealth Group. Jamie, great to talk to you, and thanks very much indeed. Start off with your outlook for the TSX, though. Do you think it will tend to move higher for the balance of the year?

JAMIE: Yeah, we definitely think the TSX will continue its march higher. I think seasonally it’s a great time of year. The Santa Claus rally comes 80 per cent of the time. Twenty-four of the last 30 Decembers have been positive, so we still think it’s going to be a great outlook, especially with some of the trade negotiations and economic news coming out of the government, like we saw yesterday with the pipeline and sort of the “unleash Alberta” movement that we have coming forward. We think that’s going to be good for the economy and good for the market. And seasonally, this is a good time of year, and when we’ve had a great 11 months, that generally bodes well for the 12th month.

ANDREW: Now, I don’t think you’re bearish on the S&P 500, but tell us: is it a more nuanced picture there for the American market?

JAMIE: Yeah. I mean, we’re definitely not bearish, and we’ve had a huge year as well in the United States. But certainly it has been a little bit more resistant, it seems, to break out past the previous highs. We’re seeing some of the leaders of the market, like Nvidia and Microsoft, two stocks that we own, just kind of struggle right now to push higher. And so we might see a little bit of churn down south, particularly as some profit-taking occurs, some window dressing occurs and some market rotation. Just with that market being so concentrated, and with the two largest index constituents making up about 15 per cent — Nvidia and Microsoft — struggling to move higher right now, we might see some outperformance in Canada for the next few months.

ANDREW: Yeah, I’m just looking — I mean, Advanced Micro is down about 15 per cent in the past month. Alphabet, of course, is rocking and rolling, up more than 20 per cent since late October. But one criticism of the AI spending boom is that they’re installing all this equipment, but tech stuff wears out — it should be depreciated pretty quickly. People may say that’s just an accounting item, but there is a real risk they’re spending tens of billions of dollars on equipment that could be obsolete before too long.

JAMIE: I think there’s a bit of missing nuance between leading-edge, front-of-the-line technology and the useful life of technology. Certainly when Nvidia puts out a new GPU — and they’re now on an annual cadence — the leading technology model companies are going to move to those brand-new chips. You get more power and more performance out of them. But that doesn’t mean the old chips are obsolete. There are still very high workloads running on those GPUs from even 2021. A great article I read noted that Microsoft was the initial company that started to extend these useful lives on chips, which actually started before the GPU-AI boom. It was in 2021-22. They were retiring chips that were seven, eight, nine years old. And so that was the rationale to extend depreciation schedules from four years to six years.

And just like a new car, it depreciates strongly as soon as you drive it off the lot. But just because it’s a two-year-old car and there are better models available doesn’t mean the two-year-old car has no more value and it should be written off.

ANDREW: You have some ideas for us here. At Doman Building Materials — DBM — they’re huge in pressure-treated lumber. Why do you like this name?

JAMIE: Yeah. So going back to the top — we’re saying maybe Canada is going to outperform — a few Canadian ideas that we think can do well, starting with Doman. We saw the forestry sector have a strong move up. Doman has been a leader in the forestry sector, but they’re not taking the lumber-price risk that the forestry companies we traditionally hear about take. They’re buying that lumber from those companies, treating it and then it’s also about the distribution and inventory management for large retailers.

So it’s a relatively stable business in the forestry sector. It’s more of a volume game and a price-spread game. We were talking about midstream oil companies at the top — Doman is more akin to those companies versus an oil company. It’s a great model. They’ve done a great job consolidating Canada and now the United States. They’re a top-three or top-four player in North America. And that scale brings additional competitive advantages, like better purchasing power and better logistics.

I think the free cash flow yield on the stock is about 14 per cent, so you get a six per cent dividend. There’s still lots of cash left over after paying that dividend to grow the company and make further acquisitions.

ANDREW: Linamar — globally big in agricultural equipment. Apparently that market is not doing very well, broadly speaking. But also, of course, autos.

JAMIE: Yeah. So Linamar — we’re seeing the stock, I think it’s actually just below its all-time high, around $83-$84. It has hit that a couple of times over the last decade. We’re seeing it bump up against that. And this is a stock that, if you look back over the really long term, tends to have these big moves — like 200-300 per cent higher — and then it’ll consolidate for almost a decade. And it’s been a decade that Linamar has been trading between that $50 to $80 range.

The multiple has come way down. We’re seeing the auto sector — not that the end market has improved, but Linamar’s auto business is doing really well. Margins are moving higher. They’re acquiring underperforming competitors, and that’s going to drive earnings per share higher.

They do have an agriculture and industrial business. That business is depressed right now. It’s going to take a year or two for that to recover. But we think when you start to look out to the end of 2026 and into 2027, you’re going to have all three of its businesses moving in the right direction. You can see earnings-per-share growth in those cyclical upswings of, call it, 10-15-20 per cent per year. And so we think Linamar is just still at the start of a long-term move higher.

ANDREW: And then finally, NorthWest Healthcare Properties — a real estate play, doctors’ offices and such.

JAMIE: Yeah. So they own the medical office buildings. They own some hospitals as well. It’s a real estate play on medical properties. I’ve been on the show and we’ve written about it on our website. It has had a long history. It had poor performance in 2021-22. That’s the past. There’s a new management team in place. They’re doing all the right things. They’re selling off assets. The debt, which was an issue two years ago, is now under control. They’re finding ways to optimize the business.

The net asset value of this company is probably around $8 per share, and it’s trading at $5.40. It’s a very stable business. In Canada, the market loves the apartment REITs and those — you have a three-four per cent dividend yield — but in Canada we’re seeing pressure on home prices, pressure on rents, a huge amount of rental supply coming in. If you’re owning a Canadian apartment-type company, I’d much rather own NorthWest, where you get that stability, a nice dividend that’s growing, and a market that should have a really good next decade.

ANDREW: Jamie, thank you very much indeed.

JAMIE: Yeah, thanks for having me.

ANDREW: Jamie Murray, president of The Murray Wealth Group.

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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Nov. 28, 2025 interview with Jamie Murray are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.