Lando Norris can still seal the 2025 F1 Drivers’ Championship this weekend at the Qatar Grand Prix despite shock disqualifications for himself and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri in Las Vegas, but what is the world title situation now?

How Norris can win the championship
F1 Drivers’ Championship – top three

Driver
Team
Points

1) Lando Norris
McLaren
390

2) Oscar Piastri
McLaren
366

3) Max Verstappen
Red Bull
366

Prior to the exclusions for excessive skid block wear, Norris had increased his championship lead to 30 points but both McLarens losing their results in Las Vegas means his advantage over Piastri is back to how it was at the start of the weekend, 24 points.

However, more importantly, Norris is also now 24 points in front of Max Verstappen who dominated the Las Vegas race.

A maximum of 58 points are available from the last two rounds in Qatar, which is a Sprint weekend, and Abu Dhabi.

Norris cannot win the title in the Qatar Sprint this Saturday at 2pm UK time, but the British driver will be world champion if he is at least 26 points ahead of Piastri and Verstappen after Sunday’s race, which takes place at 4pm.

F1 points system

Position
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Points
25
18
15
12
10
8
6
4
2
1

Points (Sprint)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

The mathematics are simple for Norris – outscore his title rivals by two points over the weekend and he will become Britain’s 11th F1 world champion.

One of several scenarios Norris could do this is by finishing in the top six of the Sprint and winning the Grand Prix.

There is also a scenario whereby Norris would only need to increase his lead by one point to 25 points to be champion – provided his weekend included winning the Grand Prix. By getting to eight wins for the season and 25 points ahead, Norris would be guaranteed to win any end-of-season points tiebreak due to superior results.

While Piastri would still be able to get to eight wins himself in Abu Dhabi, Norris has far more second place finishes (currently eight to three) than his team-mate. If Norris won in Qatar, Verstappen would only be able to finish the year with a maximum of seven wins.

What are Piastri and Verstappen’s chances now?

But, a poor weekend for Norris could see the title picture change very quickly and it is possible Piastri or Verstappen could even take the championship lead after Qatar.

To stay in the title fight, both drivers must be no more than 25 points behind Norris if he does not win the Grand Prix, or 24 or less behind if he does.

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Watch back the big moments that are costing Oscar Piastri in the title race

Neither driver can realistically afford a slip-up with McLaren’s Las Vegas disqualifications having given Verstappen a massive championship boost.

Verstappen ruled himself out of title contention in Brazil earlier this month but surely fancies his chances of at least giving Norris a serious headache, given the McLaren driver has never been in this pressure position in F1.

“We always try to just maximise everything that we’ve got,” said Verstappen before the McLaren exclusions.

“Las Vegas, that was first and the upcoming weekends we’ll again try to win the race. And at the end of Abu Dhabi, we’ll see where we end up.”

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Max Verstappen on his title chances before the McLaren exclusions

On paper, the Qatar and Abu Dhabi tracks play into the hands of McLaren but Verstappen has had race-winning pace at five of the last seven races.

Momentum is on his side and he could produce what would surely be the greatest comeback in F1 history, having been 104 points behind after the Dutch Grand Prix in late August.

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Will McLaren favour Norris?

McLaren have consistently stated they will support both drivers’ championship ambitions until they are mathematically out of the title hunt.

Earlier this month, McLaren chief executive Zak Brown said he would rather lose the championship to Verstappen than favour one of his drivers.

Brown referenced the 2007 F1 season when McLaren pair Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso narrowly lost out to Kimi Raikkonen in the drivers’ championship, with the team not backing one driver.

Raikkonen was 17 points, which is 42 points using today’s points system, behind then championship leader Hamilton with two rounds to go yet still overturned the deficit.

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Highlights of the Las Vegas Grand Prix in the USA

“That’s not how we go racing. If 2007 happens again, I’d rather have that outcome than any other that involves playing favourites – we won’t do it,” said Brown.

Given Piastri is within a race win of Norris, surely McLaren will stand by their principles despite the now serious Verstappen threat.

And the Woking-based team cannot afford to ask Piastri to play a back-up role in case Norris has a poor result on Sunday in Qatar.

Team principal Andrea Stella has previously stated: “We are not going to close the door unless this is closed by mathematics.”

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Lando Norris was left frustrated even before he had been disqualified

Will McLaren be more cautious after disqualifications?

This is the big immediate question. McLaren are investigating the reasons behind their excessive skid block wear breach in Las Vegas to ensure they do not repeat the same offence in Qatar.

In October’s United States Grand Prix, both McLarens did not complete more than one corner in the Sprint after Piastri ran into Norris.

It is understood this loss of gathering data and learnings from the Sprint meant McLaren ran the car higher than optimal, so lost performance in a race Verstappen comfortably won.

Why were the McLarens skid blocks checked for plank wear?

It is normal for the FIA to check the plank and skid wear on cars after a race, although there is no concrete rule on how many are looked at.

However, in Las Vegas, the original top 10 cars were checked for excessive wear.

In the previous race in Brazil, seven of the top 10 were checked.

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Speaking before the stewards’ verdict, Craig Slater explained why both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri faced being disqualified from the Las Vegas Grand Prix

The Qatar and Abu Dhabi tracks are relatively smooth compared to Las Vegas, so porpoising – bouncing at high speed – should not be an issue and McLaren will be less susceptible to overwearing the skid blocks.

We are talking millimetres though and even a tiny built-in margin of extra ride height from McLaren could be the difference between Norris or Piastri winning or losing out to Verstappen in a title race which is turning into a thriller.

F1’s season-ending triple header continues with the Qatar Grand Prix Sprint weekend live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime