The nightmarish Road to 272 Bets continues. Not only are we on pace for the worst edition of this challenge in the six years I’ve done it, but we’re on pace for it to be more than twice as bad as my next worst season. The good news is, we’re now in the final stretch of the season. I’ll still do my best to salvage some wins, so let’s see how I do this week.
It’s time to take a step back and change how I’m evaluating these matchups. Will the new method help lead me to a winning record in Week 14? Only time will tell. Let’s dive into my best bet for each game.
Road to 272 Bets Week 13 Record
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
Cowboys vs. Lions Prediction
Thursday night’s game is a loser goes home showdown between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Lions, despite having strong underlying metrics, are starting to implode due to poor variance and a plethora of injuries. Amon-Ra St. Brown may be out for Thursday’s game, along with the likes of Graham Glasgow, Miles Frazier, Kerby Joseph, Kalif Raymond, and their top three tight ends.
Let’s ride with a hot Cowboys’ team whose defense has been completely revamped since the trade deadline.
Pick: Cowboys +3 (-105) via BetMGM
Bengals vs. Bills Prediction
This game has OVER written all over it. Both defenses in this game have struggled this season, while their offenses, especially the Bengals’ offense with Joe Burrow back in the lineup, have been hot. With that being said, I still believe the total in this game is too high, so I’ll reluctantly back the UNDER.
The Bills are still seeking a viable option at wide receiver and now their top two offensive tackles are also out of the lineup between Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. If they face a team that focuses on stopping their rush attack, the Bills have struggled to respond by being able to beat them through the air. For the Bengals, despite Burrow’s strong performance against the Ravens, Cincinnati still averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game. Tee Higgins also remains in concussion protocol.
I’ll back in the UNDER in this pivotal AFC showdown.
Pick: Bengals/Bills UNDER 51.5 (-108) via Caesars
Commanders vs. Vikings Prediction
The Commanders’ defense has been one of the worst in the NFL. They rank 30th in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate, and 26th in defensive DVOA. Their offense has been better than people think, but now their offense has to hit the road against a Vikings’ defense that can blitz and wreak havoc against an offense that isn’t built to counter it.
Let’s buy low on the Vikings to keep this game close in an NFC matchup between two teams who are already out of the playoff picture.
Pick: Vikings +2 (-110) via BetMGM
Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction
This is a fascinating matchup between two AFC South teams trending in opposite directions. The Colts’ defense has regressed since the start of the season, teams have figured out how to slow down Jonathan Taylor, and Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured leg. To make matters worse, Sauce Gardner is now sidelined for at least a couple of weeks.
In Week 14, they’ll face a Jaguars team that leads the league in Net Yards per Play (+1.6) over each team’s last three games, and they’ve recently improved on both sides of the ball. They’ve begun to lean on their run game, and their defense has worked itself up into being a top 10 unit in the NFL.
Give me the point and a half on the Jaguars on their home field.
Pick: Jaguars +1.5 (-105) via FanDuel
Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to find ways to win and cover in games despite dealing with a laundry list of injuries. I see no reason why that won’t continue this weekend, then they host the Saints in an NFC South duel. The Saints have had a solid run defense this year, but that’s not where the Bucs attack their opponents. Instead, they attack opposing secondaries, which is bad news for a Saints’ defense that ranks 24th in opponent dropback success rate and 22nd in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 6.8 yards per throw.
The Buccaneers may not be elite in any area, but they don’t have a weakness either. They should be able to take care of business on their home field on Sunday.
Pick: Buccaneers -8.5 (-108) via DraftKings
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction
Miami has played significantly better of late, including ranking 13th in net yards per play over its last three games at +0.6. That’s well above the Jets, who come in at 25th in that stretch at -0.6. Sooner or later, the fact that the Jets traded away their best defensive players is going to get exposed. The fact that a Falcons’ offense, led by Kirk Cousins and without Drake London, was able to put up that many points against them last week isn’t a good sign for them moving forward.
The Dolphins are the better team in this game, and at 5-7, they still have life in the race for the playoffs. They’ll have to win out and get some help along the way, but it’s enough for them to put up a fight against the 3-9 Jets.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5 (-110) via FanDuel
Titans vs. Browns Prediction
There’s no denying that the Browns’ defense is the best unit in this game, but is an elite defense enough to lead a team to a five-point victory or better? At the end of the day, the Browns will have to find a way to put points on the board if they want to win with margin. The Cleveland offense has gained just 4.2 yards per play this season, the worst mark in the NFL. They’re also 30th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate.
Shedeur Sanders may not be as bad as people imagined, but he’s not necessarily an upgrade over Dillon Gabriel either. No matter how good their defense is, I don’t trust their offense enough to win this game by margin.
Pick: Titans +4.5 (-120) via DraftKings
Seahawks vs. Falcons Prediction
At this point, the Falcons can’t wait for the offseason. Nothing can go right for them, losing four games by three or fewer points and a fifth game by six points in overtime. Raheem Morris may have lost the locker room, their young quarterback is out for the year, and their star wide receiver is sidelined with an injury. That leaves Bijan Robinson as their only offensive weapon, but now they have to face a Seahawks defense that ranks first in opponent rush EPA, third in opponent rush success rate, and fourth in opponent yards per carry (3.8).
Meanwhile, there’s an argument to be made that the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL. They rank first in overall DVOA, coming in at seventh on offense, first on defense, and second on special teams. The special teams advantage can’t be understated, as the Falcons’ special teams unit has been one of the worst in the league, ranking 30th in special teams DVOA.
Don’t be afraid the lay the points with the Seahawks.
Pick: Seahawks -7.5 (-105) via BetMGM
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
The Ravens took a significant step back in their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but let’s not overlook the fact that they outgained the Bengals 6.1 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play. A turnover differential of -4, which included Isiah Likely fumbling the ball before crossing the goalline, caused the loss. This should be a great bounce-back spot against a Steelers team that’s hanging on by a thread.
Aaron Rodgers has played worse as the season has progressed, and his injuries have left him a shell of his former self. Their defense isn’t good enough to carry them, and I expect them to stumble in this pivotal game against their AFC North rival.
Pick: Ravens -5.5 (-108) via DraftKings
Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction
There’s an argument to be made that the Raiders are the worst team in the NFL. Their defense is starting to fall apart, and their offense has no juice, attempting to move the ball behind the worst offensive line in football. DVOA has them just a smidge above the Titans for last in the league, and while the Raiders managed to hang around the Broncos earlier in the season, I don’t expect the same result in the rematch. The Raiders only put up seven points in that game, and if they have a similar result in Week 14, the Broncos’ offense will find a way to score enough to cover the spread in this AFC West duel.
Pick: Broncos -7.5 (-106) via FanDuel
Rams vs. Cardinals Prediction
Last week, we all thought the Los Angeles Rams were far and away the best team in football. As soon as we thought that, they proved no team’s a step above the rest by losing to the lowly Carolina Panthers.
The Arizona Cardinals have struggled to win and cover the spread, especially of late, but I think their numbers are better than their record indicates. They rank 21st in both net yards per play and DVOA. The Rams are certainly the better team, but laying 8.5 points on the road against a divisional rival is a tough ask for any team in 2025. I’ll take the points with the Cardinals and hope their offense can keep things close.
Pick: Cardinals +8.5 (-115) via FanDuel
Bears vs. Packers Prediction
It’s time to start believing in the Chicago Bears. Despite the metrics showing they aren’t nearly as good as their record, they find ways to win games. Whether it’s against an inferior or superior opponent, they’ll squeak out a win via strong play by their offensive line, winning the turnover battle, and taking advantage of late-game opportunities.
The Packers have been the complete opposite of that this season. Their underlying metrics are elite, but they’ve let moments and games slip through their grasp more than once. The Packers’ defense ranks outside the top 10 in opponent rush success rate, while the Bears are first in offensive rush success rate. That could be the difference-maker, and it’s enough for me to back the Bears as my upset pick of the week.
Pick: Bears +260 via FanDuel
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t the team they were last year. Whether it’s fatigue from years of deep playoff runs or simply regression away from the strong variance or “luck” they’ve had in late-game situations the past few seasons, we need to evaluate them differently in 2025.
Now, they have to take on a red-hot Houston Texans team that boasts the best defense in football. They rank first in opponent EPA, third in opponent success rate, second in defensive DVOA, and fourth in opponent yards per play (4.7). Offensively, the Texans have found their stride lately and are a dangerous unit with C.J. Stroud at quarterback.
The Texans may not win, but I’d be surprised if the Chiefs are able to win by margin.
Pick: Texans +3.5 (-115) via BetMGM
Eagles vs. Chargers Prediction
It’s time to jump off the sinking ship that is the Philadelphia Eagles. Their offense is broken, and their defense isn’t able to continually carry them through games. The Bears may have found the key to beating the Eagles last week, which is simply running the ball straight at them. That’s something the Chargers should be able to do with success. Justin Herbert is expected to play on Monday night despite injuring his non-throwing hand in Week 13.
Until the Eagles can prove that they can turn things around, I’m going to bet against them.
Pick: Chargers +3 (-108) via DraftKings
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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