Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Real estate
CIBC real estate analyst Dean Wilkinson reviewed REIT returns in 2025 and looked ahead to next year,
“Our call for a midpoint 10-per-cent total return for the REIT complex seems to have held true – by Q3, it looked as if the market was set up to best our estimate; however, ensuing weakness from what we believe to be concerns over rising long bond yields has brought the REIT complex back to where it stood roughly a year ago. An equal weighted basket of our top picks was up over 20 per cent on a total return basis, with strength in Seniors Housing and Retail, while Industrial and Apartments generally lagged and the Office sector provided for significantly more volatility than expected … Our REIT coverage universe remains at an average ~12% discount to NAV and just under a 12x forward P/FFO multiple, approaching levels that have historically been viewed as nearing fair value and led to increased transactional activity. However, that was in a falling rate environment. We are still seeing wide performance/valuation disparities between asset classes: Retail REITs are well within single-digit discounts on average, while discounts for Industrial REITs are in the mid-teens and Residential REITs display the widest discounts at over 20 per cent (a stark contrast from just over a year ago when they were near parity). Trading in Office REITs remains understandably volatile: currently at a 20-per-cent NAV discount, as the reality of leasing up assets post-COVID takes longer versus NAVs that can assume a higher long-term equilibrium occupancy … No big changes in recommendations: By asset class, we continue to favour Seniors Housing (SIA, CSH) and Retail (FCR, PMZ), while Multifamily continues to trail (we like KMP domestically, as well as GO and MHC for U.S. exposure)”
Metals
Citi commodity strategist Maximilian Layton is bullish on copper and aluminum for 2026,
““Looking into 2026, we continue to expect that the precious metals bull market will broaden into base metals, particularly copper and aluminium, whose fundamentals look strong both from a cyclical and structural perspective. We see oil prices remaining range bound around $55-65/bbI Brent (please see the next slide for details). Indeed, the macro environment is likely to be supportive for growth/risk-exposed commodities during 2026, with President Trump’s administration pushing for growth ahead of the US November 2026 mid-term elections. “Tax deals (OBBBA), Trade deals (many recently, more to likely come), and Peace deals (T BC)” are on the administrations agenda (Secretary Bessent. NBCNews. Nov 12), with the intent to lower inflation, lower interest rates, and deliver a positive growth impulse during 2026. Indeed, we see US tariffs falling one way or another (recent and future trade deals, or Supreme Court not allowing IEEPA with lower tariffs as replacements and tariff payback possible). Further, the OBBBA capex subsidies and household stimulus (main impact Feb/Mar), could see something of US ‘no landing’ (‘goldilocks’ environment develop during 20-40′26. Our bullishness on risk-exposed commodities such as copper and aluminum would increase further should the Russia/Ukraine war end (betting markets [Polymarket] now have this as more likely than not during 2026), as this would further lower inflation concerns (via a $10-15/bbI fall in petroleum product premiums, and perhaps $3-5/bbI lower crude oil prices), supporting a ‘goldilocks’ US and global growth scenario during 2026. If they sell off on this news, we recommend to buy the dip. Further, should President Trump be able to pass a tariff rebate (not our base case), this also presents upside to US growth and risk exposed commodities.”
Citi analyst Nicholas Hacking has “buy” ratings on Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., First Quantum Minerals Ltd. and Novagold Resources Inc.
Apartments
RBC Capital Markets analyst Jimmy Shan outlined weakness in the apartment REIT sector,
“The consistent theme we heard was that the apartment rental market is now more competitive. The nuance is that generally, suites with rents below $2,000 per month are holding their own while those above $2,000 have competition –progressively more, the higher the rent. The apartment REITs have majority of their suites under $2,000 (CAR 75-per-cent-plus, BEI/KMP 90-per-cent-plus), which explains why they are still maintaining occupancy in the high 90 per cent. That said, we came away thinking 2026 could turn out to be slightly more challenging than our prior expectation. • Capital allocation continues to center around recycling/upgrading assets, but given current valuation, unit buy back has become the most sensible priority. • Investor sentiment: We sensed investors’ expectations were for soft fundamentals near term (bad news is well known), that valuation is cheap (no real debate here) … Silver linings: 1) Macro outlook has improved with increased defence spending, Alberta energy initiatives etc…; 2) Supply starts should come down; 3) interest rate refinancing is less of a headwind with 5-year CMHC debt in the low 3 per cent”
Mr. Shan has “outperform” ratings on Boardwalk REIT, Canadian Apartment REIT, Killam Apartment REIT and Storagevault Canada Inc.
Bluesky post of the day
Massive year for retail traders:
Outperforming because of what they’ve bought AND when they’ve bought
sherwood.news/markets/reta…
— Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 10:36 AMDiversion
“Something Grim Is Happening to Kids Who Got Cell Phones Early” – Futurism