Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Analysts at TD Cowen think “2026 could be real estate’s turn to outperform.”

“Following two years of wide underperformance comparable to 1998-1999 (which led to four years of subsequent outperformance), REITs increasingly appear ready to regain some market leadership,” said the firm’s real estate equity team, led by Sam Damiani and Jonathan Kelcher.

“Macro changes are hard to predict, but REITs offer attractive and stable yields and growth while biding time until the next catalyst for a bounce in valuations.”

The group said Canadian-listed real estate heads into the new year “on a relatively solid footing, having largely adjusted to the re-setting of interest rates since 2022, lower population growth, and this past year’s trade uncertainty.” While acknowledging “a cloudy macro backdrop and lingering uncertainty,” they think Canada’s economy and leasing fundamentals “increasingly appear resilient”

“We are forecasting 2026 total returns of 15-20 per cent for our REITs/Real Estate coverage universe,” they said. “This includes 10 per cent from yield and growth (each in the mid-single digits), and another 5-10 per cent from multiple expansion. This remains the key swing-factor.

“Potential catalysts we see for multiple expansion include 1) renewed confidence in the Canadian economy, 2) easing of today’s strong investor preferences for other momentum-oriented sectors of the market, and 3) a moderation in long-term bond yields.”

With that bullish view, they refreshed their sector pecking order for 2026, explaining: “Following three years of significant outperformance, we are moving Seniors down two positions to 4th in our pecking order. Residential moves up to second given its relative and absolute valuation, though we might be early on the call given no near-term catalysts. Industrial rises to third spot. Our property-type pecking order is Retail, Residential, Industrial, Seniors, and Office.”

In a client report released before the bell, the analysts reaffirmed their estimates for 2026 while lowering most of their target prices for the Residential and Office equities in their coverage universe.

Changes are:

Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN-T, “hold”) to $14.50 from $16. The average on the Street is $15.37, according to LSEG data.Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T, “buy”) to $85 from $88. Average: $79.88.Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAR.UN-T, “buy”) to $47 from $49. Average: $48.50.BSR REIT (HOM.U-T, “buy”) to US$15.50 from US$16. Average: US$12.50.Killam Apartment REIT (KMP.UN-T, “buy”) to $21 from $22. Average: $21.33.Minto Apartment REIT (MI.UN-T, “buy”) to $16.50 from $17. Average: $16.67.Northview Residential REIT (NRR.UN-T, “hold”) to $17.50 from $18. Average: $16.50.

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In a research report released Friday titled Time to look forwards, not backwards, Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier revealed his top picks in his industrial and transportation coverage universe for the year ahead.

“For 2026, our investment thesis centres on looking forwards (not backwards) by focusing on quality businesses that faced headwinds in 2025,” he said. “Our top picks are CAE, TFII and WSP; we favour globally diversified names (outside Canada) with minimal tariff risk that in our view have wrongly fallen out of favour with investors, offering unique self-help catalysts to close valuation gaps regardless of macro volatility. While recent challenges such as a pause in pilot hiring, a prolonged freight recession and AIrelated fears weighed on these companies, we view them as temporary in nature and already showing early signs of reversal. This sets the stage for a more favourable setup in 2026, opening the door to incremental buyers.”

For his top picks, Mr. Poirier made these target adjustments:

* CAE Inc. (CAE-T, “buy”) to $51 from $46. The average is $43.99.

“In Aerospace & Defence, as well as overall, CAE is our favourite idea given its new CEO, new chairman, green shoots in pilot hiring, surging global defence spending, a red-hot bizjet market and structurally irreplaceable assets,” he said. “The setup reminds us of BBD and ATRL in the early stages of their turnaround journeys. While financial targets are pending, we see potential for Civil EBIT margins at 25 per cent and Defence at 11–12 per cent. Applying these assumptions, along with a modest multiple expansion, yields a bullcase valuation of $64/share (or $69/share if we include buybacks). This scenario would effectively enable CAE to more than double its earnings within 3–4 years.”

* TFI International Inc. (TFII-T, “buy”) to $170 from $157. Average: $144.48.

“In Transportation, TFII stands out for its consolidation potential (in contrast to CN, CP and CJT), greater exposure to the U.S. (70 per cent of revenue), less cross-border/tariff exposure, a superior 2027 FCF yield (11 per cent vs 3–5 per cent for the rails) and unique non-market-reliant self-help catalysts at TForce Freight. Importantly, while upside does not depend solely on a trucking rebound, we are starting to see early signs of a potential capacity crunch as driver regulatory enforcement is heightened in both the U.S. and Canada.”

* WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T, “buy”) to $346 from $306. Average: $322.60.

“In Engineering & Construction, we like WSP, which continues to trade at what we view to be an unjustified discount on AI fears—despite carrying the largest war chest for M&A, easier organic comps and leading margin expansion. For investors looking for a more risk-taking profile with nuclear upside, ATRL remains a compelling alternative.”

* Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T, “buy”) at $102 (unchanged). Average: $91.60.

“In Special Situations, we prefer SJ for its utility capex tailwind, steel M&A runway, potential residential lumber divestiture and attractive valuation. We also continue to like DOO and CGY,” he said.

His other target changes are:

AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T, “buy”) to $130 from $115. Average: $121.01.Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T, “buy”) to $260 from $239. Average: $226. Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T, “buy”) to $118 from $117. Average: $115.01.Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, “buy”) to $161 from $151. Average: $156.93.Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T, “buy”) to $133 from $120. Average: $121.98.Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T, “buy”) to $19 from $18. Average: $16.44.Stantec Inc. (STN-T, “buy”) to $173 from $160. Average: $170.14.Titanium Transportation Group Inc. (TTNM-T, “buy”) to $3.25 from $3. Average: $2.63.

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After Thursday’s release of “strong” third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results, Stifel analyst Martin Landry emphasized Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) “continues to report exceptional results every quarter,” but he thinks its shares are now “fairly valued at this point and reflect significant future earnings growth.”

The Montreal-based discount retailer reported revenue for the quarter $1.909-billion, up 22 per cent year-over-year and exceeding Mr. Landry’s $1.902-million estimate. Earnings per share grew 19 per cent to $1.17, which was 9 cents higher than the analyst’s projection and 6 cents above the Street’s forecast.

“The earnings beat vs our expectations comes from higher revenues and higher gross margins,” he said in a client note. “In Canada, comparable store sales increased by 6 per cent year-over-year, the best performance of the last seven quarters. However, Dollarama benefited from a favorable calendar shift creating an easy comparable. Gross margin expanded by 110 basis points year-over-year in Canada on lower logistics and higher sales of seasonal products which tend to carry higher margins than consumables. Shares of Dollarama were down slightly on the day as investors anticipated good results and drove shares higher ahead of the print.”

While noting its operations in Australia were a notable contributor to the gains, Mr. Landry pointed to a “strong” performance domestically for the EPS beat while also noting the growth from its Dollarcity business in Latin America.

“Gross margin in Canada increased 110 basis points year-over-year to reach 45.8 per cent, higher than our estimate of 44.7 per cent,” he said. “Gross margin was positively impacted by a higher seasonal mix and lower logistic costs. Canadian SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales decreased by 10 basis points to 14.2 per cent on scale benefits. Excluding the contribution of Dollarcity and Australia, EBITDA margin reached 32.0 per cent, up 110 basis points year-over-year, higher than our estimate of 30.7 per cent and consensus of 31.1 per cent”

“Dollarcity continues to outperform. Dollarcity increased its earnings by 64 per cent year-over-year, the highest growth rate of the last five quarters. Sales increased by 21 per cent year-over-year, which was combined with a margin expansion on lower logistics costs. Post quarter-end, the company opened its 700th store, marking a significant milestone as the brand is gaining scale and awareness in LATAM.”

Keeping his “hold” rating for Dollarama shares, Mr. Landry raised his target to $200 from $190 after rolling forward his valuation period. The average target on the Street is $213.29, according to LSEG data.

“Shares appear fully valued,” he said. “DOL’s shares are up 39 per cent in the past 12 months versus a return of roughly 23 per cent for the S&P Consumer Discretionary Index, and are trading at approximately 37 times forward earnings, roughly 12 turns higher than the 10-year average. While we think Dollarama’s financial performance in recent years justifies a premium valuation, we do not see further multiple expansion potential from current levels. In fact, we see a risk of multiple contraction under a scenario where investors rotate into consumer cyclical names.”

Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include:

* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $225 from $220 with an “outperform” rating.

“Strong Q3 and year-to-date results against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and cautious consumer spending reinforce our view that DOL remains a best idea and core holding heading into 2026. Sector-leading growth trajectory, strong free cash flow, consistent return of capital and multi-geography LT growth platforms are supportive of premium valuation, in our view,” said Ms. Nattel.

* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $226 from $214 with an “outperform” rating.

“We hold a positive view on DOL’s shares reflecting a stable, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance,” said Mr. Shreedhar.

* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $235 from $210 with a “buy” rating.

“We are increasingly confident that the Canadian operations can achieve stated targets as its outsized growth during elevated inflation normalizes, the growth outlook for Dollarcity LATAM appears exceptional, and in the probability of success for Mexico/TRS. Based upon our positive outlook for the portability of the Dollarama business model internationally, we are increasing our target multiple supported by our segmented DCF analysis,” he said.

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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar thinks the second-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results from Empire Co. Ltd. (EMP.A-T) were “tepid,” featuring “good” sales but higher costs and leading him to lower his forecast for the grocer.

“Profitable growth is a key strategic focus … (1) Management’s long-term focus is: (i) Better serving customers, (ii) Simplifying stores (to support point i), (iii) Profitable growth, and (iv) Cost discipline,” he said in a client note. “EMP is approaching e-commerce as a multichannel opportunity (third-party partnerships) rather than purely focusing on Voilà (improving year-over-year but not yet breakeven), which we expect will improve profitability. The industry’s e-commerce penetration rate remains below EMP’s expectation.

“Sales growth beyond sssg [same-store sales growth] largely came from new wholesale contracts (expected to grow), which we view to be an interesting vector. Our EPS estimates are revised: F2026 goes to $3.29 from $3.33 and F2027 goes to $3.58 from $3.66.”

Shares of Nova Scotia-based parent company of Sobeys fell 9.2 per cent on Thursday after it reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization from its Food Retail segment of $566-million, down from $572-million a year ago and below Mr. Shreedhar’s $583-million estimate. Earnings per share fell 4 cents year-over-year to 69 cents, matching the analyst’s expectation but a penny below the Street’s forecast, with margins hurt by labour action at its Alberta distribution centre in Alberta.

“We remain on the sidelines as we evaluate EMP’s ability to deliver consistent growth; the valuation discount versus peers, in part, compensates investors for a long-term fluctuating earnings track record,” said Mr. Shreedhar.

With his reduced forecast, he cut his target for Empire shares to $54 from $58, reiterating a “sector perform” rating. The average target is $58.33.

Elsewhere, other changes include:

* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $53 from $60 with a “buy” rating.

“Against a backdrop of moderating food SSSG over the next few quarters and normalizing gross margin expansion, a strong focus on cost reduction is key to sustaining earnings growth. This is a priority for management. If successful, we believe EMP should achieve its long-term 8–11-per-cent EPS growth target next year (in line with L and MRU). This is key to narrowing the large valuation discount (14 times forward P/E vs 19 times for MRU and 24 times for L),” Mr. Li said.

* TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst to $50 from $58 with a “hold” rating.

“Investors were unhappy with Q2 Retail EBITDA growth (ex Other Inc) of 1 per cent, and showed it by pushing EMP shares down 9 per cent. SSSG was solid, but led by lower-margin 3rd-party eComm deals. Full Service tonnage continues to decline modestly industry-wide. GM% expansion, which had been supporting EPS growth, slowed and EMP will now have to lean hard into opex cost controls to deliver on its EPS growth targets,” said Mr. Van Aelst.

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Following stronger-than-anticipated fourth-quarter results from TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman predicts fiscal 2026 “could be an even better encore.”

Shares of the Alberta-based manufacturer of home heating products and gas transport vehicles soared 22.3 per cent on Thursday after it reported sales, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS of $419-million, $81.9- million, and 83 cents. All exceeding the consensus for projections on the Street ($416-million, $68.5-million and 65 cents, respectively). Revenues jumped 81.8 per cent year-over-year on organic growth of 5.4 per cent as well as significant gains from M&A (74.8 per cent) versus Mr. Goldman’s estimates.

“We are incrementally bullish coming out of the quarter for several reasons: 1) Entrans was much better than feared (we estimate current run-rate EBITDA of US$50-million vs. our prior estimate ofUS$30million) and we have better visibility on trailer market trough; 2) we expect leverage back within the comfort range (2 times to 2.5 times) by 2HF26, which supports a reacceleration of M&A following a very active 2025 (six deals adding more than $140-million EBITDA); 3) we think significant new growth vectors opened up in Highland Tank and Simplex; and 4) our estimates may prove conservative, especially as we do not contemplate a trailer market recovery, at all, and we do not model unannounced M&A,” he said.

Maintaining his “sector outperform” rating for Terravest shares, Mr. Goldman hiked his target to $179 from $165 after rolling forward his valuation. The average on the Street is $186.67.

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Touting its “high-return model emerging from the build phase,” Ventum Financial analyst Amr Ezzat initiated coverage of Toronto-based mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions provider Zedcor Inc. (ZDC-X) with a “buy” recommendation.

“We believe the market is focused on the wrong part of the curve,” he said in a client note. “The stock has re-rated sharply over the past two years, and the Street has repeatedly lifted near-term estimates to keep pace. In our view, this has created forecasts that now sit ahead of what the network can deliver without several large marquee wins, which remain possible but are not required for value creation. The model’s long-term earnings power is being understated precisely because the Company is still in the network build phase, where consolidated returns mask the underlying economics. Our work focuses on duration rather than the next couple of quarters, and on the returns the business can produce once reinvestment intensity normalizes. Consensus sales for 2026 stands at $109.8-million, with a range of $104.0-million to $114.9-million. We are initiating at $100.2-million, below the low end. Any pullbacks tied to short-term forecast resets would, in our view, create opportunities within a bullish long-duration thesis.”

In a client note released late Thursday, Mr. Ezzat emphasized Zedcor has recently deployed capital into assets that “earn materially higher returns than the consolidated business” and noted the “durability of revenue comes from operating efficiency, not contract design.”

“Reported ROIC [return on invested capital] is 7.8 per cent, only because the Company is still in the heavy build phase,” he said. “The underlying economics are different. Each tower pays back in under two years, delivers 65-per-cent tower-level margins, and requires limited maintenance. If capital continues to be allocated at these incremental returns, consolidated ROIC should move toward 16-17 per cent (from the current 7.8 per cent) over the next four years as scale effects work through the cost structure and reinvestment intensity normalizes.”

“Customers keep towers rolling through their workflows because the integrated hardware and monitoring meaningfully reduce friction. Better detection accuracy, fewer false alarms, consistent service quality, and higher reliability all contribute to lower operational burden. Competing platforms that rely on mixed OEM hardware, outsourced monitoring, and tiered service levels create dissatisfaction and raise churn risk. Zedcor’s model embeds the service directly into customer operations, producing recurring demand that does not depend on legal renewal cycles.

He also noted Zedcor’s network “becomes more profitable as it grows” and value creation “ultimately hinges on capital allocation.”

“As regional density increases, route lengths shrink, redeployment cycles accelerate, and branch-level margins expand,” he said. “U.S. regions show higher utilization, while Canada’s mature footprint delivers higher EBITDA margins, illustrating the early profile of the steady-state model. The investment case rests on capital allocation, a long reinvestment runway, and a clear path from early-stage ROIC to the returns implied by the underlying assets.

“The central questions are whether reinvestment continues to flow into high-return units at similar economics and whether discipline is maintained as scale increases. Early decisions such as standardizing hardware, internalizing monitoring, and building regional density before wider expansion indicate a coherent strategy aligned with maximizing long-term returns per dollar invested. Insider ownership, including both the Board and management, is ~23%, reinforcing alignment around long-term capital-allocation decisions.”

Mr. Ezzat set a Street-high 12-month target price for Zedcor shares of $8.70, implying a 47.5-per-cent return from current levels. The average target is $7.38.

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In other analyst actions:

* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch trimmed his Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) target to $8.25 from $8.50 with a “hold” rating. The average is $7.30.

“We are cutting our target on Athabasca … reflecting negative estimate revisions following the release of its 2026 capital budget, which disappointed on softer production guidance from Leismer and Duvernay Energy Corp. Meanwhile, the company continued to breadcrumb plans to further expand thermal oil sands production through greenfield development of its Corner asset. Accordingly, we have begun modelling initial capital spending in 2027, with an eye toward a potential sanctioning in mid-2026,” said Mr. MacCulloch.

* National Bank’s Matt Kornack raised his target for BSR REIT (HOM.U-T) to US$13 from US$12.50, which is the current average. He kept a “sector perform” rating.

“BSR hosted a property tour in Dallas, TX to showcase some of their recent acquisitions and talk to potential upside through lease-up, ancillary services and platform initiatives,“ he said. ”In a formalized press release/presentation, management highlighted the prospect for these initiatives to add between 13-22 cents of FFO through 2028. We are currently forecasting 11 cents of improved earnings through the end of 2027 and think that management’s outlook is entirely reasonable. This growth comes after a period when earnings have been under pressure because of new supply deliveries in the REIT’s markets combined with temporary dilution from disposition activity with funds eventually being deployed but into unstabilized assets.”

“BSR’s portfolio is well positioned to generate growth even in a competitive market environment.“ The properties we toured consisted of an older vintage asset where BSR improved the offering and has been working to rebuild online reputational scores following prior ownership mismanagement during a failed sale process; and a recently built best-in-the-sub-market asset undergoing lease-up. The physical attributes of both were attractive, but the real differentiator was the REIT’s customer service-oriented model. This is translating into better performance vs. peers in a highly competitive supply environment.“

* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch bumped his target for Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) to $33.50 from $33 with a “buy” rating. The average is $30.39.

“We are increasing our target on Cenovus … reflecting positive estimate revisions following the release of 2026 guidance which surprised favourably with respect to upstream production, downstream throughputs and operating costs. In our view, the constructive update reflects organic growth initiatives and efficiency improvements, stemming in part from synergies realized through the strategically transformative MEG Energy acquisition. We continue to highlight the stock as a top pick,” said Mr. MacCulloch.

* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar cut his D2L Inc. (DTOL-T) target to $19 from $22 with a “buy” rating to reflect a lower near-term growth profile and recent peer multiple compression. The average is $21.80.

“Persisting headwinds in the US K-12 segment remains a drag on the near-term outlook, but multiple quarters of consecutive pipeline expansion with increasing buyer intent speaks to potential for pent-up demand building in the core higher-ed segment, where D2L remains competitively positioned with a differentiated AI strategy, which has been fueling sustained competitive displacements vs. larger, distracted peers with improving win-rates – supporting our thesis for more share gains ahead. With continued momentum in international expansion and corporate learning, we see year-over-year ARR growth rebounding to the double-digits over the course of next year, reaffirming the path to the company’s medium-term targets (F28) for 10-15-per-cent year-over-year revenue growth and 18-20-per-cent EBITDA margins,” said Mr. Sukumar.

* RBC’s Rob Mann lowered his Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE-T) target to $6.50 from $8 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $8.17.

“Gran Tierra announced its 2026 budget [Wednesday] night, with equivalent production and capital spending coming in well below Street expectations as the company aims to prioritize free cash flow generation next year,” he said.

* In response to Thursday’s release of its 2026 budget, TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof raised his Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) target to $73 from $71 with a “buy” rating, while Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch bumped his target to $74 from $73 with a “buy” recommendation. The average is $64.93.

“We are increasing our target … reflecting positive estimate revisions following the release of 2026 guidance,” said Mr. MacCulloch. “The company continues demonstrating strong operational momentum, underpinned by 100-per-cent utilization of its upgraders and refineries, which was the key driver of our target price increase. Looking ahead, SU is planning an operational update in early January, and we expect it to unveil further cost-saving initiatives and updated nameplate capacities at a forthcoming investor day.”

* In response to its fourth-quarter results and “surprise” announcement of the $2.2-billion sale of its flagship packaging business to Cincinnati, Ohio-based ProAmpac Holdings Inc., RBC’s Drew McReynolds bumped his target for shares of Transcontinental Inc. (TCL.A-T) to $29 from $26, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $26.75.

“Inflection point on positive revenue and EBITDA growth remains the primary catalyst for the stock,” Mr. McReynolds said. “Following the proposed $2.2-billion sale of Packaging, the focus now shifts to the extent to which the remaining asset mix (Retail Services and Printing, Media/Educational Publishing) can return to sustained positive revenue and EBITDA growth, which in our view, remains the primary re-rating catalyst for the stock. For F2026, management expects organic revenue growth to be slightly negative with EBITDA largely stable YoY. While the timing of any inflection point on growth remains unclear to us, we would not rule out F2027 reflecting the likelihood of additional growth-accretive tuck-in acquisitions within In-Store Marketing (ISM), the potential absence of Canada Post strike impacts, the full realization of corporate cost reductions following the sale of Packaging, and other pockets of growth (raddar, Media, book printing). In the meantime, we expect investors to continue to benefit from ongoing capital returns (dividends, special dividends, share repurchases) building upon what will have been two special dividends amounting to $21/share paid.”