Over the past few years a strange thing has happened to the Christmas No 1. From 1952 to 2020 the festive top spot was, with the odd exception — such as when a social media campaign got a sweary punk rant to No 1 just to annoy Simon Cowell (Killing in the Name by Rage Against the Machine, 2009) — taken by a new release. It may have been a cheesy ballad by a talent show winner, a novelty pop tune or a terrible charity single built around a sausage roll-based pun — step forward LadBaby, No 1 from 2018 to 2022 — but it was new. Now the Christmas No 1 is almost guaranteed to be a song that came out decades ago.
Because of the way streaming works, every listen to a track on a Christmas playlist will push up its position in the charts. That’s why Last Christmas by Wham!, a song released in 1984, was the festive No 1 in 2023 and 2024. With two billion streams and counting, it could make a hat-trick this year. In years past, people across Britain might well have stuck Last Christmas on the CD player as they decked the halls with holly before having a massive row with their grandparents over the political merits of Nigel Farage, but that wouldn’t have made it a hit. Now we’re in an era when the chart position of a song is judged not by sales, but by how many people are listening to it. And they may not even have chosen to listen to it.
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At the time of writing, Last Christmas, All I Want for Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey (1994), Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree by Brenda Lee (1958) and Underneath the Tree by Kelly Clarkson (2013) are all in the Top Ten. By an incredible coincidence they also happened to be in the top ten on Christmas Hits, Spotify’s most popular festive playlist. In other words, people across Britain are no longer actively choosing these songs. They are simply going for the path of least resistance and listening to the songs Spotify has selected for them. The entire concept of the Christmas No 1 has been upended accordingly. And yet there is hope.
XMAS by Kylie Minogue (Ladbrokes odds 6-4, ★★★★☆), an Amazon Music exclusive track that confirms the old adage that most pop songs are just nursery rhymes in glittery outfits, is actually new and in with a chance of winning the top spot. There is a peppy beat, a jingling melody, a YMCA-style shoutout of the letters with an accompanying dance routine, and Minogue singing frothy words about getting all the presents under the tree before ringing the bells at the end of the night. Ultra simple, highly camp and cheerful in the extreme, this is in the nonreligious tradition of Seventies yuletide smashes by Slade, Mud and Wizzard, and would actually be the ideal 2025 Christmas No 1 not only because it is fun and festive, but also because it didn’t come out decades ago.
• Kylie, please stop: I have an allergy to Christmas music
There is big competition, however, from Last Christmas (1-2, ★★☆☆☆). The song now universally accepted as a classic is actually awful, a tear-soaked dishrag of overwhelming soppiness that the nation has, for some unfathomable reason, clutched to its collective bosom for four decades now. I was a child when it came out and remember finding it extremely depressing, on a par with the news that you were going to have to spend Boxing Day playing Scrabble with Auntie Rita, who always responded to the request for a Quality Street by saying, “May he, Mummy?” Still, Wham! were great fun and George Michael is much missed, so my Scrooge-like assessment will not dent its ascent to the top of the tree in any way whatsoever.
Far better is Mariah Carey’s All I Want for Christmas Is You (33-1, ★★★★★), a Sixties girl group-styled all-time belter with one hook after another, a winning blend of sadness and hopefulness, and one of the greatest high notes in pop history. As for Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree (100-1, ★★★★☆), it’s a pleasant if corny vision of yuletide innocence — Brenda Lee was only 13 when she recorded it — and had its first revival in 1990 after being used in Home Alone. Then there is Underneath the Tree (100-1, ★★★☆☆) by Kelly Clarkson, which goes for the Motown Sixties pop model of a tale of Christmas being cold and grey until the right person came along. Best of all is A Fairytale of New York by the Pogues (18-1, ★★★★★). It has literary merit worthy of Brendan Behan and captures the lachrymose spirit of a boozy night out in the festive season. Really it is one of the great folk ballads of the Irish diaspora. And it has never made it to No 1.
Mariah Carey’s All I Want for Christmas has been given odds of 33-1 to make it to No 1
KEVIN MAZUR/GETTY IMAGES
Could the “rave dad” of this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert propel Where Love Lives by Labrinth (50-1, ★★☆☆☆) or indeed the original version by Alison Limerick (50-1, ★★★★★) to the top? There is a generation out there who can relate to the story: middle-aged father with vague memories of being cool is brought back to a clubby, hedonistic youth after his teenage son, whom he clearly hasn’t been getting on very well with, builds bridges by buying him a 12in of Limerick’s 1990 house anthem. Cue rave dad doing a bit of dad dancing in his designated dad area before reminiscing on good times throughout his son’s life. Labrinth’s version is stripped of pumping house in favour of pulling on the heart strings, reminding us that the love between a father and son is ultimately more important than a banging night in the club. That’s as maybe, but the new version is lame and the original is fantastic so the message is lost somewhat.
Alison Limerick sang the original version of Where Love Lives
DAVE BENETT/GETTY IMAGES
There is also a chance that a new charity single could make it to the Christmas No 1. Lullaby by Together for Palestine (16-1, ★★★★☆), a reimagining of a haunting Palestinian folk song, Yamma Mwel el Hawa (Mama, Sing to the Wind), is currently the third favourite. It has been reinterpreted for a British audience, with English lyrics by Peter Gabriel and a performance by a choir featuring Brian Eno, Celeste, Dan Smith from Bastille and the Palestinian singer Nai Barghouti. Together for Palestine are urging people to download Lullaby as all proceeds are going to provide aid in Gaza.