The biggest name in professional boxing, Jake Paul, will take a massive step up in competition opposite former Heavyweight champion, Anthony Joshua, TONIGHT (Fri., Dec. 19, 2025) inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., streaming live on Netflix.
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This matchup was never supposed to happen. Paul planned to fight Gervonta Davis, a world-class boxing champion, but much smaller man. After Davis’ latest string of allegations, however, “Tank” was pulled, and Paul instead ends up opposite a world-class boxer as the much smaller man. There are almost no advantages on the Paul side, and yet “El Gallo” still seems convinced he’s destined for victory.
As for Joshua, this is a late-stage side quest in an incredible career. The former Olympic gold medalist and champion isn’t old at 36 years of age, but it’s fair to say he’s closer to the end than the start of his combat sports life. Why not jump on a short-notice opportunity to pick up a huge payday against a relative amateur? The slim chance for embarrassment exists, but the odds of another mega knockout (a la Francis Ngannou) are much higher.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
MIAMI BEACH, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 17: (L-R) Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua face off during the press conference for Jake Paul v Anthony Joshua at The Fillmore Miami Beach on December 17, 2025 in Miami Beach, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images for Netflix) Getty Images for Netflix
Paul vs. Joshua Betting Odds
Jake Paul victory: +700Jake Paul via TKO/KO/DQ: +1000Jake Paul via decision:+1400Anthony Joshua victory: -1300Anthony Joshua via TKO/KO/DQ: -360Anthony Joshua via decision: +450Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 28: Jake Paul punches Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. to a unanimous decision win during a Cruiserweight fight at Honda Center on June 28, 2025 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) Getty Images
Paul has come a long way. He started out with a heavy right hand and pretty much nothing else, but he’s developed a nice active lead hand to help him line that shot up. He’s disciplined with his hand position, hits the body well, and generally stays over his own feet.
As for taking out Joshua? Good luck.
Look, there’s no technical path to victory here. We’re not talking about, “If Paul can find his way inside on the much larger man, he has a chance.” Joshua should be able to destroy Paul at every range with a remarkably degree of consistency. Even the current wide odds are not nearly in touch with reality, influenced by Paul’s fame and the lingering accusations of fight-fixing.
Instead, we’re talking purely about a puncher’s chance. Paul has good power, and we’ve seen Joshua rocked before but smaller hitters. Paul’s best chance here is to attack early, hit the body once or twice to at least establish that threat, and then try to go over-the-top with the biggest overhand right of his entire boxing career.
It would be quite the scene if it lands.
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA – MARCH 08: Anthony Joshua punches Francis Ngannou during the Heavyweight fight between Anthony Joshua and Francis Ngannou on the Knockout Chaos boxing card at the Kingdom Arena on March 08, 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by Richard Pelham/Getty Images) Getty Images
Joshua has some remarkable physical gifts. He’s incredibly strong, perfectly built for Heavyweight boxing, and hits very hard. His actual boxing game may not have the depth of somebody like Oleksandr Usyk, but he’s still done great work in capitalizing on his physical talents.
In addition to the general size and strength advantages I just mentioned, Joshua is also the better boxer. He’s much more fluid on his feet and sets up his own powerful right hand with far more finesse. His timing is sharper and his combinations are tighter. His conditioning holds up better as rounds wear on, unlikely as that is to matter in this particular match.
We’re talking about an elite former world champion against an undersized regional-level pro. If Joshua wants to hurt Paul and stop him early, there should be little “El Gallo” can do about it. Ideally, Joshua wastes little time, doesn’t tempt fate, and focuses on battering through Paul’s guard with that ferocious right off the jump.
LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 20: Anthony Joshua gestures to the crowd during a weigh-in as part of the Riyadh Season – Wembley Edition card at Trafalgar Square on September 20, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Richard Pelham/Getty Images) Getty Images
Paul vs. Joshua Prediction
It should be pretty obvious by now, right? Joshua is going to obliterate Paul. If he doesn’t, I’ll question the integrity of everybody involved. Barring some kind of miraculous development in Paul’s talents or the one in 1 million right hand finding its mark inside the opening six minutes, this is going to be an absolute rout.
Prediction: Joshua via knockout
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