As the year comes to an end, CNBC’s Jim Cramer revisited questions he asked at the start of 2025, reviewing macroeconomic and sector-specific forces that helped shape market action.
“You need to know where we came from before you can figure out where we’re headed,” he said.
Here are the answers to some of Cramer’s 2025 queries:
Did the labor market remain tight? The labor market definitively did not stay tight, Cramer said, explaining that the unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% in January to 4.6% in November. Job creation weakened in the latter half of the year, he continued, noting that job growth was actually negative in June, August and October. He said one silver lining to the softer labor market is that it has allowed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.How did the Trump administration impact stocks? President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda initially sent the indexes plummeting, Cramer said, but the market bounced back once many of the duties were postponed or reduced. Trump’s megabill hasn’t yet had a huge impact on the market, he continued, adding that the longest-ever government shutdown didn’t seem to hurt stocks significantly in the long term. There is a “a ton of controversial stuff happening in Washington at any given moment,” Cramer said, but he suggested that much of it is not really relevant to stocks.How did the consumer discretionary sector hold up? It seems the “debate’s still raging” when it comes to the state of consumer spending, Cramer said. In the middle of the year, it seemed like the consumer was sputtering, he continued, adding that consumer sentiment isn’t particularly strong. However, the market has started to favor consumer stocks in recent weeks after several major retailers posted strong earnings, Cramer continued. A busy Black Friday season and another rate cut from the Federal Reserve has also given the group a boost, he added.Could utilities meet the rising need for electricity? As artificial intelligence continues to develop and data centers proliferate, Cramer said utilities stocks are “in growth mode again from all of this power demand.” He said he feels fairly good about this group, even as they’re up over 12% for the year.How did the AI infrastructure trade evolve? Cramer noted that the sector “grew beyond anyone’s imagination” for much of the year. However, Wall Street has balked at the massive infrastructure spending commitments many hyperscalers have made. He suggested this “new, more discerning phase will ultimately be positive for the market,” even as it’s harder to pinpoint winning stocks in the group. Which robotaxi came out on top? Waymo is the clear market winner, Cramer suggested, and Tesla’s robotaxi segment is making relatively slower progress. Cramer wondered if the robotaxi market could become a duopoly, or if another contender will emerge.
Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing