There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season, and both the playoff picture and the awards races are coming into cleaner focus. The major award, obviously, is the Most Valuable Player award, and the race got a bit of a shake-up this past week.Â
With that in mind, we wanted to take a look at the current state of the race, as well as what needs to happen for each candidate to come away with the trophy at the end of the season. The candidates whose cases we’ll be examining, in order of DraftKings odds (with implied probability in parentheses), are as follows:
Below, we will break down the latest NFL MVP odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Â
Matthew Stafford, Rams (-220)
It’s fascinating that Stafford remains the favorite despite the Rams losing to the Seahawks and dropping to fifth place in the NFC. It’s not that difficult to understand when you look at his overall numbers, but the MVP does typically come from one of the top few seeds in the conference, and it’s entirely possible that the Rams finish as a wild card team. Given that he’s still the favorite despite that positioning, Stafford probably just needs to perform at the level to which we’ve become accustomed from him in the final two games, and hope nobody behind him does something so amazing as to justify stealing the award out from under him.
Drake Maye, Patriots (+185)
Maye’s performance against the Ravens on Sunday night, coupled with L.A.’s loss on Thursday, shifted the odds quite a bit from where they were last week. That game being on national TV helped quite a bit, obviously, but he won’t get those opportunities in the final two weeks of the season against the Jets and Dolphins. He needs to win both games, obviously, and put up some explosive numbers along the way while hopefully also having the Broncos stumble in one of their final two games so that the Patriots can capture the top seed in the AFC. If all that happens, he could sneak ahead of Stafford.
Josh Allen, Bills (+2500)
After Allen’s muted performance against the Browns on Sunday, his chances of winning the award dropped significantly from where they were last week. The Bills won, sure, but did so despite the fact that Allen threw for just 130 scoreless yards and ran for only 17 on his seven carries, in a game that ended up being far closer than expected. Given the way the odds are shaping up, Allen needs the Bills to surpass the Patriots in the AFC East race to have a shot at taking home his second consecutive trophy. Those odds may even be longer than his own odds to win MVP, due to New England’s opponents in the final two weeks of the season.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (+3500)
Lawrence has stormed onto the fringes of the race with an electric four-game run wherein he’s averaged 8.7 yards per attempt while throwing for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions, including Sunday’s 279-yard, three-score detonation of a Broncos defense that is arguably the best in the NFL. Still, the Jags are a game behind both Denver and New England in the AFC race, and Maye has been the better player than Lawrence for the significant majority of the season. If Lawrence keeps playing like this and Jacksonville surpasses New England and even Denver, he can break into the mix. But if the Jags finish in the third spot, it’s hard to see him overtaking the top guys — even if his wild run continues.
Justin Herbert, Chargers (+8000)
While Stafford leads the MVP race despite his team being in fifth place in the conference, Herbert sits in fifth in the MVP odds while also sitting fifth in the standings, with the exact same record. That’s probably owed in large part to the 40-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio Stafford sports, compared with Herbert’s 25-to-12 mark. Herbert also had a couple down games in a row before smoking the Cowboys on Sunday. If L.A. somehow overtakes Denver for the AFC West title, Herbert could possibly crash the party here, but he seems much more likely to garner down-ballot votes than to actually take it home.
Caleb Williams, Bears (+10000)
The Bears are all of a sudden the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and in position to potentially grab the top spot. The likelihood of Williams winning MVP even if that happens, though, seems relatively low. The Bears’ run game has powered their offense for most of the year, and head coach Ben Johnson winning Coach of the Year seems like a much more likely result as a reward for the top seed than does Williams getting Most Valuable Player — even if he goes off against the 49ers and Lions.
Sam Darnold, Seahawks (+10000)
With his team in first place in the NFC and coming off a fantastic win wherein he did a ton of heavy lifting on the game-winning drive, Darnold is still way down the list in MVP odds. It’s not that surprising when you consider the fact that he might not be the most valuable player on his own offense, thanks to the presence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Again, even with a hot stretch run, a JSN Offensive Player of the Year win or a Mike Macdonald Coach of the Year win feels more likely than a Darnold MVP — even if the Seahawks hang onto the No. 1 spot in the conference.