The Athletic has live coverage of Lions vs. Vikings and Broncos vs. Chiefs in the NFL Christmas Day games.
It took me 16 weeks, but I am willing to concede that Drake Maye is pretty good. He might even have a case for MVP if voters hadn’t already decided that Matthew Stafford’s combination of 40 touchdowns, five interceptions, lifetime achievements and California vibes is just too much not to honor.
I am even starting to come around on the New England Patriots as a Super Bowl contender. Assuming that the Buffalo Bills’ receivers and run defense let Josh Allen down, the AFC could come down to two young, hot hands in Maye and Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence is still only 26 and is playing with a lot of moxie after a slow start this season. He throttled one of the league’s better defenses, the Broncos, in Denver last week and has 14 total touchdowns and zero turnovers while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt the past four games.
The three-year, $60 million extension the Jacksonville Jaguars recently gave receiver Jakobi Meyers seemed excessive for four catches per week, but if he makes Lawrence confident and a little more accurate, give Meyers a blank check. The Jaguars and Patriots are way ahead of schedule with their first-year coaches, but schedules imply order. And this NFL season has been chaos.
I am riding with both quarterbacks in this week’s picks, after I get off to a good start with some Christmas ridiculousness.
Last week’s record: 6-8-2 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets
Season record: 114-118-8 against the spread, 38-42 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Dallas Cowboys (-8) at Washington Commanders | 1 p.m. ET Thursday, Netflix
Josh Johnson will be making his 10th career start for his 14th team, and everyone will be rooting against him, apparently. Not me. The spread has moved strongly toward Dallas, even though the Cowboys are missing many defensive players and recent offensive sparkplug Ryan Flournoy. Plus, their offense has fallen from 60 percent red zone efficiency to 36 percent over the past three games.
We also question the eliminated Cowboys’ motivation, on the road after already having beaten the Commanders badly this season.
The pick: Commanders
Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Minnesota Vikings | 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, Netflix
There is definitely a theme to these Christmas games. Another new quarterback trying to prove he is not terrible to his depressed home fans, as Max Brosmer is in for J.J. McCarthy for the Vikings.
The Lions are coming off a tough, physical loss to the Steelers, and while they are still barely mathematically alive (3 percent) for the playoffs, they realize they are so depleted in the trenches and secondary that this is just not their year. Jared Goff has handled Brian Flores’ blitzes well historically, but not Thursday.
The pick: Vikings
Denver Broncos (-13) at Kansas City Chiefs | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime
Three for three. Apparently, we now love some guy named Chris Oladokun, who is starting for the Chiefs at QB, as we go for the three-dog Christmas parlay. The Chiefs were understandably flat last week, in their first game after a dynasty ended. They should bounce back with some pride in a game where they are the biggest underdog in franchise history. They were plus-13 against Ken Stabler and the reigning Super Bowl champion Raiders in 1977.
Bo Nix (2-8 ATS as a favorite this year) really let me down last week after I finally came around, and he is not Ken Stabler.
The pick: Chiefs
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2) | 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NFL Network
Home fans booed the Texans’ offense last week. After all, expectations are growing because of the Super-Bowl worthy defense. That defense was understandably a little flat against the Raiders, but it will bounce back to harass the already banged-up Justin Herbert. Herbert got a breather last week because the depleted Cowboys couldn’t get home once despite blitzing a season-high 55 percent of the dropbacks. The Texans don’t need to blitz.
The pick: Texans
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3) | 8 p.m. ET Saturday, Peacock
I like Malik Willis’ big arm and athletic ability, and I look forward to the pending free agent getting a chance to develop as the new quarterback for the Raiders or Dolphins next season. But even if Jordan Love plays (and he appears to be trending that way), the Packers have a lot of injuries, and the Ravens could still very well win their division.
Baltimore absolutely blew last week’s game, when John Harbaugh and his staff (pointing at each other) sat that game’s most dominant player in the fourth quarter. But Derrick Henry and his offensive line lead the way again here, with or without Lamar Jackson. (Hey, Tyler Huntley has actually gotten better.)
The pick: Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Jaguars have covered in six consecutive games, while the Colts have the same record with 44-year-old Philip Rivers (0-2) as they would have if they just went with rookie Riley Leonard. But at least they’re getting Rivers some more reps for next season.
The Jaguars won the first matchup 36-19, and that was before the Colts were forced to start playing some really, really bad backups at cornerback. Jacksonville runs a lot of play-action, and if you listen closely, you’ll be able to hear the Colts’ corners cuss.
The pick: Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Joe Burrow and the Bengals bouncing back last week was the easiest call on the board. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett and the semi-plucky Cardinals have lost too many players to the blue tent and the sideline. Their coach might not be back next year, and the trips to Cancun and Hawaii have been booked.
The pick: Bengals
New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Jets are tanking, which was obvious from some of their moves even before they were picked by some idiot to cover against the Saints last week. In his two starts, quarterback Brady Cook has forced interceptions and then taken sacks because he was too scared to throw interceptions.
Laying this many points on the road is not ideal, but I trust the Patriots’ defense and Drake Maye — after he didn’t miss a pass in that comeback win over the Ravens. They improve to 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS against teams with losing records.
The pick: Patriots
Can Bryce Young dice up the Seahawks’ defense? (Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Panthers are wildly unpredictable, but here’s something: The Seahawks have run zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL (81 percent of dropbacks). Since Week 11, Bryce Young leads all qualified QBs in EPA per dropback against zone (0.3), with a 75 percent completion rate, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions over that span.
The pick: Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
We keep telling you Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are shot, and they have now lost seven consecutive games against the spread. Give me the Dolphins and Quinn Ewers, who was not awful at times in his debut last week, to keep it close at home.
The pick: Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cleveland Browns | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Browns’ defense held Josh Allen in check last week, and now they get to chase statue Aaron Rodgers. Plus, they get to spoil the rival Steelers’ postseason plans — for at least a week. Or … Cleveland can hang around against a Pittsburgh offense missing DK Metcalf and lose by a field goal, and we push the bet. Either way …
The pick: Browns
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Saints are still hungover from the Cameron Jordan and Taysom Hill just-in-case retirement parties and home win last week. The Titans just beat the Chiefs, the kings of the AFC, and keep it rolling.
The pick: Titans
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Raiders fans have been living their own “Groundhog Day” for two decades and are dreading the team blowing the No. 1 overall draft pick with a meaningless win.
Good news: The front office didn’t trust the coaching staff and gave tight end Brock Bowers the rest of the season off. Bad news: Defensive end Maxx Crosby said he doesn’t care about picks and wants to win. Worst news: Giants interim coach Mike Kafka will be overmatched even in this game, and quarterback Jaxson Dart has been dreadful since Brian Daboll was fired — he ranks 29th in yards per attempt (5.7) and EPA per dropback (-0.2).
The pick: Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
How come no one is calling this a Super Bowl preview? The Eagles can’t run the ball, and the Bills can’t stop the run. After the Patriots beat the Jets in the morning game and all but clinch the division, I have a sneaking suspicion the Bills might rest some of their injured players. Why else would this spread be so low?
The pick: Eagles
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The 49ers’ offense can’t carry the defense every week, and it feels like this is where the bubble bursts. The Bears will be able to run the ball, and their linebackers and defensive backs (except Kyler Gordon) are finally all healthy. They should be able to somewhat contain Christian McCaffrey and take advantage of the 2-4 risky Brock Purdy throws per game.
One caveat: Though the 49ers are last in sacks, Caleb Williams has struggled with accuracy from a clean pocket, ranking 31st in completion percentage (66 percent) on non-pressured attempts. Still …
The pick: Bears
Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Atlanta Falcons | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
The Rams have won six straight in games immediately following a loss, tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. Unlike the Buccaneers and Cardinals, they will actually harass Kirk Cousins and cover the tight end. But … another caveat: If the Seahawks and 49ers win Sunday, the Rams can’t win the division and might rest some players.
The pick: Rams
Best bets: Go with defense in the Vikings and Texans, over the Lions and Chargers, as well as the Bengals, whose defense is not embarrassing anymore and should help Joe Burrow cover the number against the Cardinals. And then we’re a sucker for a theme, so we’ll go with the Patriots and Jaguars over the Jets and Colts.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): We didn’t mention that Josh Johnson won only one of those previous starts, but he finds Terry McLaurin for a couple of TDs here. We think the national talk show pundits deserve the gift of an annual embarrassing Cowboys loss, at the nice price for us of the Commanders +360.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.