Farmer’s prediction: Bank on Sonia Citron to expose Golden State’s weak spot from the perimeter and have it raining three’s in D.C.
Jul 31, 2025 • 15:47 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Washington Mystics guard Sonia Citron (22) waits for play to resume.
In what world did it make sense to schedule a game against a WNBA Finals rematch on Wednesday and then play only one WNBA game on Thursday?
As foolish as that decision was, at least tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Valkyries and Washington Mystics has genuine playoff implications.
My Valkyries vs. Mystics predictions do not worry much about that chase for the eight-seed. Instead, one particular player should enjoy a strong night in our WNBA picks with tip at 7:30 ET on Thursday, July 31.
Valkyries vs Mystics predictions
My Valkyries vs Mystics best bet: Sonia Citron Over 1.5 3-pointers (+100 at FanDuel)
If the Golden State Valkyries fall short of the playoffs — currently half a game behind the Washington Mystics for the final spot in the postseason — they should blame their perimeter defense.
Allowing opponents to take 28.3 threes per game thus far in July could be portrayed as Golden State keeping foes out of the paint, but opponents have been delighted by these threes. They have not been a chore.
Valkyries’ opponents have hit 33.7% of their shots from beyond the arc this month. That ranks No. 6 in the WNBA, arguably respectable, but no one above Golden State in opposing 3-point percentage is giving up more than 26.5 looks from deep per game this month.
Those defenses both limit looks and force bad looks.
The Valkyries are doomed not only by giving up too many looks, but by giving up too many good looks.
Enter Sonia Citron.
She has cleared this prop just once in her last four games and only twice in her last seven, but Citron is Washington’s best shooter and should be the one to capitalize on this Golden State weakness.
Citron leads the Mystics’ rotation in both 3-point percentage at 37.6% and 3-pointers attempted per game at 4.2. As the Valkyries fail to defend the arc, Citron should cash this plus-money prop.
Valkyries vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
Sonia Citron Over 1.5 3-pointers
Shakira Austin Over 14.5 points
Mystics -4
With Aaliyah Edwards sidelined tonight, Shakira Austin should see a few more minutes, and whenever she has ample minutes, Austin scores. She has cashed this prop in seven of her last nine games playing at least 26 minutes.
Trusting Washington’s inside-outside game clearly correlates with the Mystics covering this spread. Frankly, there was some surprise that this combination yielded a same-game parlay payout north of +400.
Valkyries vs Mystics odds
Valkyries vs Mystics live odds
Valkyries vs Mystics opening odds
Spread: Golden State +2 | Washington -2
Moneyline: Golden State +110 | Washington -160
Over/Under: Over 157 | Under 157
Valkyries vs Mystics trend
Golden State is 3-6 against the spread in its last nine road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Valkyries vs. Mystics.
How to watch Valkyries vs Mystics
Location
CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C.
Date
Thursday, 7-31-2025
Tip-off
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
Prime Video, KPIX, KMAX, MNMT
Valkyries vs Mystics latest injuries
Valkyries: Kayla Thornton (knee) and Monique Billings (ankle) out.
Mystics: Aaliyah Edwards (wrist) and Georgia Amoore (ACL) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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