Jessica Ramírez, co-founder and managing director at The Consumer Collective, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss her outlook for consumer behaviour in 2026.
New shopping trends reshaped the Canadian retail landscape over the past year and are likely to shape what comes next.
In 2025, consumers showed a clear divide in spending habits, embraced convenient delivery, and turned away from traditional shopping malls, retail analyst Bruce Winder of Bruce Winder Retail told BNN Bloomberg.
This “K-shaped” economy defined 2025, he said.
“It’s almost like a two tiered economy, depending on how affluent you are. So that dictates what products, what retailers, what services, are doing well, versus which ones are struggling,” said Winder.
Winder said while some affluent consumers are spending well, many have drifted to the bottom of the K, shopping at places like No Frills and Dollarama.
That split is expected to persist into 2026, according to Jessica Ramirez, co-founder and managing director at the Consumer Collective.
“We repetitively said, the consumer is shaky. The sentiment is quite tough out there. And the consumer that was most hit was middle income and low income,” said Ramirez in an interview on BNN Bloomberg.
She said many of the affected consumers are either “out of savings or have been dipping into savings.” She also said many have been using “buy now, pay later options” on their credit cards, creating new debt.
Tariffs and job anxiety weigh on spending
Looking into 2026, Winder said tariffs are already having an impact through consumer confidence and costs.
He said the threat of tariffs has made some shoppers more nervous about spending because of job uncertainty, particularly in steel, automotive and aluminum-related industries.
“They don’t know if they’re going to have a job in the future,” said Winder.
Winder also said tariffs can feed inflation through the supply chain.
He said Canadian retailers often buy products in the U.S., and those U.S. input costs can be affected when components or finished goods come from regions facing tariffs, including parts of Southeast Asia.
“So it’s imported a little bit of inflation into our country too,” said Winder.
Same-day delivery is a game changer
Amazon’s push into rapid delivery is a key reason consumers have fewer incentives to visit brick-and-mortar stores, said Winder, adding that Amazon is already offering multiple deliveries in a day.
“In Toronto, Ottawa and Hamilton, you can get it four times a day,” said Winder.
“It becomes sort of a smaller reason now as to why you need to go to brick-and-mortar stores.”
Winder highlighted Amazon’s massive scale in Canada. He said the company has invested about $65 billion in the country since 2010, with about 46,000 employees and 70 facilities.
Stores still dominate, but the mix is changing
Despite the growth of E-commerce, Winder said Canada remains a store-first retail market.
“Brick-and-mortar is still 80 to 85 per cent of retail sales,” he said,” he said, adding that stores still have an advantage for experiences such as trying products on or getting in-person service.
Ramirez said higher-income consumers have continued to spend but are still “being quite cautious.”
She said those shoppers are still holding up a large share of retail sales, but have started “trading down” in some areas, including groceries. The luxury jewelry market has continued to do well.
AI starts to influence how Canadians shop
Winder said 2025 also marked an early shift in how consumers discover products, with the emergence of AI tools that act like shopping assistants.
He said AI agents like Perplexity, Google’s Gemini, and Amazon’s Rufus can search the internet, recommend products and compare prices.
“These AI agents can do a lot of the heavy lifting for you,” Winder said.
He also said they can forecast demand based on consumer spending habits.
Malls struggle to replace anchor tenants
On the real estate side, Winder said mall owners are struggling to fill space.
“It’s really difficult for malls to fill that space with anchor tenants,” he said, adding that some landlords are breaking up space or bringing in unconventional tenants like car dealerships, pickleball courts or service providers.
Winder said the strongest, marquee centres can still attract tenants, pointing to Toronto’s Eaton Centre as an example.
But he said many suburban “B and C” malls are struggling to backfill space.