Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Big changes to global ideas list
RBC Capital Markets co-heads of research Graeme Pearson and mark Odendahl published the department’s top 30 global stock ideas, a list of high-conviction equity stories from RBC analysts,
“The best-performing Top 30 stock selections in Q4/25 were Barrick (up 30 per cent), DuPont (up 23 per cent) and Loblaw (up 17 per cent). Over the past year, the Top 30 total return was 14.4 per cent vs. the benchmark at 20.1 per cent, and since inception of our quarterly list at year-end 2019, the Top 30 has delivered a total compound annual return of 14.0 per cent, above the benchmark at 12.8 per cent.
“Changes This Quarter Additions: Airbnb (ABNB-Q), Alcon (ALC SW), Amazon.com (AMZN-Q), Engie (ENGI FP), International Paper (IP-N), Royal Gold (RGLD-Q), Shopify (SHOP-N, SHOP-T), The Williams Companies (WMB US), Visa (V-N), Wisetech Global (WTC AU), Xcel Energy (XEL-Q)
“Deletions: Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-T), Barrick Mining (B-N, B-T), CSX (CSX-Q), EDP Renovaveis (EDPR PL), Ferrari (RACE IM), HubSpot (HUBS-N), NIKE (NKE-N), PayPal (PYPL-Q), Pembina Pipeline (PPL-T), Wells Fargo (WFC-N), Wix.com (WIX-Q)
“Maintains: Air Products and Chemicals (APD-N), Biogen (BIIB-Q), Boston Scientific (BSX-N), Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T), ConocoPhillips (COP-N), Constellation Software (CSU-T), DuPont de Nemours (DD-N), Loblaw (L-T), L’Oreal (OR FP), Microsoft (MSFT-Q), Moody’s (MCO-N), Palo Alto Networks (PANW-Q), RB Global (RBA-N, RBA-T), Safran (SAF FP), Schneider Electric (SU FP), Snowflake (SNOW-N), U.S. Bancorp (USB-N), Ventas (VTR-N), Xylem (XYL-N)”
Venezuela events have oil markets on edge
TD Cowen oil analyst Menno Hulshof provided an early assessment of Venezuela/U.S. geopolitics’ effects on the crude market,
“We expect a limited impact from VZ’s most acute geopolitical crisis since 1902-1903, but reiterate the potential for geopolitics to structurally alter global energy market dynamics in 2026. Any immediate-term disruptions to supply risk premia are likely mitigated by the ongoing glut, leaving markets focused on the risk that sanctioned barrels may instead enter into the system, and sentiment regarding the prospect of a medium-term recovery in exports. We also expect a muted war-effect owing to the limited nature of this operation”
Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng and the energy research team also published a report on the longer term impact of the bizarre U.S. policy in Venezuela,
“We believe this development will have a mixed impact on the oil market. Near-term oil prices may initially rise modestly, reflecting uncertainties in the aftermath of this attack on Venezuela’s oil production, while longer dated strip prices fall. The pace of the power transition and the overall security situation on the ground could also cause any near-term rally to fade. Longer term, the removal of Maduro could potentially mark the beginning of a new chapter for OPEC and the oil market, a complete opposite of the outlook in 1999 after Chavez was elected President of Venezuela in late 1998. As a result, we believe these developments will lead to lower longer term oil prices while widening U.S. and global light/heavy oil differentials”
From what I’ve read over the weekend, Venezuela’s facilities are outdated and the quality of oil is broadly poor. Reading between the lines it seems like Venezuelan oil is marginally profitable at best in the current market, and obviously new supply would put downward pressure on the commodity price.
U.S. tariff policy still threatens domestic growth
TD economist Andrew Hencic sees cracks under the surface of domestic growth,
“The economy has shown some mettle, likely growing 1.7 per cent in 2025 as data revisions revealed better-than-expected past performance and large swings in trade-flattered topline figures. However, there are real cracks under the surface (domestic demand contracted in two quarters this year) and focus is now firmly on how Ottawa’s strategy of new infrastructure, defense spending, and greasing the wheels on major projects to diversify trade markets begins to be delivered … Thus far, Canada has managed to more than offset the $13.0-billion decline in exports to the U.S. with $16.3-billion in flows to the rest of the world. Moreover, roughly 87 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. in September (the last month for which we have data) were still duty-free … The protection conveyed by CUSMA doesn’t extend to specific goods tariffed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. These levies have materially affected the competitiveness of Canadian manufactured goods south of the border. Motor and Other Vehicles (-$3.3 billion year-to-date), steel & iron (-$2.0 billion), and aluminum (-$1.4 billion) exports to the U.S. have contracted significantly. Moreover, flows abroad for most of those products have not been sufficient to offset the lost revenues”
“The Weekly Bottom Line” – TD Economics
Bluesky post of the day
Good morning, oil watchers!
Brent crude prices briefly collapsed below $60/bbl earlier this morning before popping back above $61/bbl.
Oil market not quite sure what to make of Venezuela news—volatile and uncertain immediate impact, months-to-years effect likely bearish.
— Rory Johnston (@roryjohnston.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 7:04 AM
https://bsky.app/profile/roryjohnston.bsky.social/post/3mbofiud5ks2l
Diversion
“Nanoparticle therapy reprograms tumor immune cells to attack cancer from within” – Phys.org