The positivity rate for flu hit 33.3 per cent at the end of December, 2025, data from the Public Health Agency of Canada show. The previous record was 27.6 per cent in the 2024-25 season.JASON FRANSON/The Globe and Mail
Influenza cases peaked in late December, reaching a three-year high in Canada, but they continue to roar across the country.
Data from the Public Health Agency of Canada, updated on Friday, show the positivity rate for flu hit 33.3 per cent at the end of December – the highest rate recorded over the last three viral seasons. The previous record was 27.6 per cent in the 2024-25 season.
The rate of infection dropped to 27.1 per cent in the week ending Jan. 3 with 13,471 detections from nearly 50,000 tests. In its update, PHAC noted that laboratory-confirmed outbreaks and the rate of weekly hospitalizations are also trending downward.
Eleni Galanis, director general of PHAC’s Centre for Emerging and Respiratory Infections, said Canada is not yet out of the red zone, but the data paints a hopeful picture.
“We’re still in the heavy, middle part of the influenza season, but it is a relief to see the per cent positivity start to come down, which means we’ve gone through the worst,” said Dr. Galanis.
Edmonton doctors call on Alberta to declare state of emergency as hospitals overflow
Flu cases in Canada rise above three-season high
Hospitals across the country continue to be burdened with respiratory virus cases. Earlier this week, doctors in Alberta’s capital Edmonton called on the government to declare a state of emergency because of overflowing hospitals, driven partly by the annual flu surge.
Infectious disease and public health experts have been sounding the alarm in recent months over the severity of this viral season. The dominant strain circulating in Canada is Subclade K, a mutated variant of influenza A (H3N2).
This strain is a mismatch for the current vaccine, meaning it may offer less protection. However, doctors are still urging Canadians to get vaccinated as it will offer some level of protection, namely against severe illness and complications.
While there were fears that this season would be the worst in many years, Dr. Galanis said the numbers indicate it is within the “normal and expected” range for cases and severity.
“I know it always feels heavy and severe in the community, in the hospitals in particular. But from the big picture perspective, this is within the expected range.”
It most closely resembles the 2022 season, during which H3N2 – though not Subclade K – was similarly the predominant strain, leading to a rapid rise in cases that severely impacted children, she added.
There are some viral seasons where the peak in cases is followed by a secondary, but smaller, peak. In others, Dr. Galanis said cases continue to dwindle down until the season ends. It’s too early to anticipate what’s to come this year.
Since August, 16,167 people have been hospitalized with the flu, 354 of whom have required intensive care. More than 230 deaths have been reported in that period, primarily among people 65 and older.
Flu activity varies across the country, but PHAC data show it is more widespread in parts of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec.
Dr. Galanis said it is not too late to get vaccinated, especially if you are young or elderly. She said the vaccine is “relatively effective” against the circulating strain, which is expected to continue spreading for several weeks, if not months.