Trying to predict the front-runners for this year’s forthcoming Formula 1 season has never been trickier.If the regulations had stayed as they were, things would have been a lot easier. Except for Alpine and its PU, 2025 saw significant convergence in car performance across the grid.
This allowed us some insight as to how the talent bags of the different drivers compared.
Steam
However, faced with 2026’s unprecedented redefinition of what is and what is not allowed, the driver landscape becomes foggy.
Talking of wet and damp, the first person we need to consider is the current Incumbent Formula 1 World Champion.
Lando Norris stepped up to the plate in the latter half of the season, but his performance was hardly electric. You got the feeling that it was a Herculean task to cling to his fragile Championship lead; one that he had to dig so deep for, that he may not want to repeat again.
Lando is probably still the best qualifier on the grid. A requirement that was critical in 2025, since being first into Turn 1 meant clean air.
However, this is unlikely to be such a defining skill in 2026. There’s a feeling of ‘been there, done that, and thankfully, got the trophy’ about Norris that reminds me of Nico Rosberg.
Not that Lando will be retiring, but we may see his hunger reduced.
Hot
Staying within the same team, Parc Ferme predicted Oscar Piastri would beat Norris last year. The closest thing to Max Verstappen on the grid, the young Aussie was well on his way to fulfilling this prophecy – that is, until he mysteriously forgot how to drive.
Fortunately, his memory lapse recovered at the back end of the season. With another year’s experience now under his belt, we can expect him to evolve further.
Parc Ferme once again believes Piastri will come out ahead in this teammate battle in 2026, especially as Norris publicly shared the same view at the end of the Abu Dhabi race.Hotter
Who’d bet against Max Verstappen, not you, not I. Regardless of how the cards land in the performance stakes at the start of the season, Max proved he can motivate the team to produce a competitive car.
There’s no other driver currently in F1 who can do this and deliver at the same time à la Michael Schumacher.
Verstappen is at the top of his game, and the games of everyone else on the grid.
Warmish
Isack Hadjar will probably sit comfortably in 2026. Expectations for him to perform have thankfully been tempered by previous incumbents of the Red Bull number two seat.
Ironically, this may reduce the burden slightly and help him deliver the kind of wingman performance required for Red Bull to win the F1 Constructors’ Championship.
We can also expect a step-up from Ollie Bearman. The young Brit has put away his water pistols and was maturing nicely towards the end of last season.
A Ferrari seat beckons for the 2025 overtaking Champion – a characteristic the Tifosi would adore in the absence of silverware.
Whether the new rules produce the overtaking fest predicted or not, Ollie will shine.
Lukewarm
This has to be Ferrari country. Fred Vasseur has already signalled that the tyres will be the key to everything.
This echoes John Elkan’s position that there’s nothing wrong with Ferrari’s engineers, ergo the chassis and PU are ‘top shelf’.
Nice spin, Fred, but no one’s buying that tiramisu. Unfortunately, such talk is not encouraging for the Maranello pilots.
Expect Charles Leclerc to continue his look of long-suffering disappointment, and Lewis Hamilton, his countenance of confusion.
Not
No matter what magic Adrian Newey or Honda produce, it’s difficult to imagine Lance Stroll maximising that performance.
If Parc Ferme had one word to sum him up for 2025, it would be resignation.
Lance neither looks nor sounds like he wants to be within a thousand miles of either a Grand Prix or an F1 car.
Unless Aston Martin have made a big leap forward, we can expect him to slug it out with Franco Colapinto and Cadillac at the rear of the grid.