By now, you know how the last chapter ended. Kyle Larson snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, dispatching a dominant Denny Hamlin in overtime to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series title.
Larson’s second championship wasn’t particularly well received. Hamlin, who was embroiled in a lawsuit against NASCAR as a car owner (one that found him popular with many within the fanbase), had yet to win a title and had come so close only to have it taken away.
2026 is a new year, though, and looking back and asking “what if?” is only an exercise in frustration. Meanwhile, the new season kicks off in less than two weeks’ time with the non-points Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium. It’s a clean slate where anything can happen.
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Could that “anything” include back-to-back titles for Larson?
It’s been 15 years since a driver brought home two championship trophies in a row, a feat last accomplished by Jimmie Johnson in 2009-2010 (and also 2008, 2007 and 2006, but that’s neither here nor there). Winning two in a row is a rare accomplishment, with Johnson the 11th driver to accomplish it.
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But the odds are in Larson’s favor.
NASCAR flipped the clock on the title format, reverting to the Chase system used between 2004 and 2013. The top 16 drivers in points earned after 26 races will reset and go after the title for 10 weeks to close the season, again based solely on points earned in that stretch. Wins will matter more in terms of points, but consistency will also play a larger role.
While Hamlin had more wins (six), Larson was one of the Cup Series’ most consistent performers in 2025. Take away the multiple playoff resets and Larson scored more points over 36 races than any other driver. He also tied with Chase Briscoe for the most top-five finishes and led all Cup drivers in top 10s.
Larson also outperformed Hamlin in average finish (13.2 to Hamlin’s 14th), laps led (1,106 to 1,024) and races finished (34 to 31).
Entering a season where those numbers will really matter without the luxury of playoff resets, Larson enters the season as not only a title contender but also a title favorite.
There’s a lot of racing between Daytona International Speedway and … well, Daytona again when the Chase field will be set (and the points reset just once), and still more before the final lap at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Not only does Larson have consistency and the ability to contend just about anywhere on his side, he also has history. Nobody had the Chase format figured out better than Johnson’s crew chief Chad Knaus, who now serves as Hendrick Motorsports’ competition director. The same Hendrick that currently employs Larson. In the 10 seasons the format was previously used, Knaus guided Johnson to six titles.
The only other driver to win more than one Chase title was Tony Stewart with a pair of them. His crew chief for one of them? Darian Grubb, who got his start under Knaus, winning a pair of races with Johnson in 2006 in Knaus’ absence.
Knaus’ knowledge of how to approach the Chase format could prove to be a solid advantage for Larson and his Hendrick teammates.
Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels showed not only consistency in 2025 but also tenacity. Larson had a pair of DNFs on the year, but his team avoided a few more, getting Larson’s car repaired and back on track — that will play a role in a format under which every point means either the chance to make the Chase or the chance to win a title.
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That’s not to say 2026 will be a cakewalk for Larson. He’ll have plenty of competition from his own teammates, let alone the rest of the field. He’s a smooth and talented driver, but he does make mistakes, and the ones he makes tend to be costly. He can also be overaggressive, and drivers race one another in kind; if Larson crosses too many lines, someone will call him out on it.
Larson’s 2025 championship was only a surprise in the context of the one-race playoff title format and Hamlin’s dominance at Phoenix Raceway in the second half of the race. Overall, he scored more points than anyone else, which alone would have been good for a title for the first 50 years of the Cup Series’ existence. His team was consistent and worked for every last point in every race.
Under the new format, those things will be even more important. It would be no surprise to see Larson become the first driver in a decade-and-a-half to hoist the flag — and the trophy — back-to-back.
Amy is an 20-year veteran NASCAR writer and a six-time National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA) writing award winner, including first place awards for both columns and race coverage. As well as serving as Photo Editor, Amy writes The Big 6 (Mondays) after every NASCAR Cup Series race. She can also be found working on her bi-weekly columns Holding A Pretty Wheel (Tuesdays) and Only Yesterday (Wednesdays). A New Hampshire native whose heart is in North Carolina, Amy’s work credits have extended everywhere from driver Kenny Wallace’s website to Athlon Sports. She can also be heard weekly as a panelist on the Hard Left Turn podcast that can be found on AccessWDUN.com’s Around the Track page.