I am helping Next.io with its new Emerging Verticals event on March 9 in New York City, ahead of the main conference. I’ll be there and speaking! You can get tickets and learn more here. Use code F0EVTCL0L10 for a 10% discount. Reach out if you have any questions about the event or getting tickets.
Apologies to European readers: it’s still “soccer” over here.
If you want to bet on professional soccer and basketball at prediction markets, Kalshi has you covered.
Kalshi has dramatically expanded its coverage of international soccer matches and basketball games as it tries to replicate the offerings available at sportsbooks.
Here’s a rundown of the nearly 30 soccer leagues and competitions available at the prediction market. The leagues are the top-level pro leagues in a country unless noted otherwise:
Argentina Primera Division
Australia A League
Belgian Pro League
Brasileiro Serie A (Brazil)
Bundesliga
Copa del Rey (Spanish competition, includes amateur teams)
Coppa Italia (Italian competition)
Croatia HNL
DFB Pokal (German competition, includes amateur teams)
EFL Championship (second-tier English soccer)
EFL Cup (English competition)
English Premier League
Eredivisie (Netherlands)
Europa League (European competition)
FA Cup (English competition)
FIFA World Cup
Greece Super League
KNVB (Dutch competition)
La Liga (Spain)
Liga MX (Mexico)
Liga Portugal
Ligue 1 (France)
National Women’s Soccer League
Saudi Pro League
Scottish Premiership
Serie A (Italy)
Super Lig (Turkey)
Swiss Super League
UEFA Champions League (European competition).
Kalshi has offered Major League Soccer when it is in season.
You can also bet on several leagues in basketball outside of the NBA and men’s and women’s college basketball in the US:
BRP x TNC | Who Your King (3 on 3 basketball)
Chinese Basketball Association
EuroCup
Euroleague
FIBA Champions League
FIBA Europe Cup
Japan B League
Liga Nacional de Basquetbol (Argentina)
NBL Australia
You can also bet on these hockey leagues outside of the NHL:
American Hockey League (minor-league hockey)
Kontinental Hockey League (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and China)
Swedish Hockey League
All of this currently takes place in the United States under the auspices of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while legal battles play out across the country.
Kalshi also allows trading in more than 100 other countries, per its Member Agreement, which specifies prohibited jurisdictions.
Kalshi Takes Compliance PR Tour Amid Prediction Market Backlash (Sportico): “Kalshi is talking a lot about compliance these days, a strategic move amid concern from bettors, media publications, sports leagues and lawmakers about insider trading on prediction markets. As Kalshi touts its own consumer protection capabilities, the exchange betting firm has emphasized how much it contrasts with Polymarket, the longtime international prediction market operator in the process of launching a separate U.S.-only product. Kalshi argues that just because Polymarket’s international exchange might be susceptible to market manipulation from outside bad actors, as critics allege, not all prediction markets should suffer reputational harm.”
“Companies in upstart industries facing public backlash commonly identify themselves as stringent rule-followers. Through compliance-first messaging, Kalshi may be able to reduce pressure from lawmakers while convincing consumers it is safer than what can be found elsewhere.”
💡 My take: Good read from Dan, click through and read the whole thing.
Is December Sports Betting Handle Down Because Of Prediction Markets? (The Closing Line):
The Cashout: NY Sports Betting Sets Another Weekly Revenue Record; And Is December Handle Down Because Of Prediction Markets?
Next Summit New York is coming up in early March. Get your tickets here, and use code TCL0L10FU3V for a 10% discount…
Read more
21 hours ago · 5 likes · 1 comment · Dustin Gouker
The Dangerous Power of Prediction Markets (NYT, paywall): “The uncomfortable truth is that prediction machines have become infrastructure for the legitimacy of event outcomes, no matter how outlandish: When markets process political events before democratic institutions like Congress can deliberate, market outcomes are treated as validation and permission for political actions. If traders have already bet and been paid, the action must be legitimate.”
Editing out Polymarket?: The New York Times had a good read about some of the big traders on prediction markets. I shared it at the end of last week already; here’s the link again, though.
Millions Saw Polymarket’s False Claims About Jeff Bezos. Here’s What Really Happened (Inc.): “Amazon’s Jeff Bezos spoke out yesterday to deny a post Polymarket made about his alleged advice.”
“JUST IN: Jeff Bezos advises aspiring Gen Z entrepreneurs to start at real world jobs like McDonalds or Palantir before starting a business,” the prediction market platform said.
“Nope,” Bezos replied. “Not sure why polymarket made this up.”
“The post has garnered 5.3 million views, and X added a community note acknowledging its falsity.”
Winter storm draws bets on Polymarket, Kalshi (Axios): “The winter storm poised to sweep through the U.S. this weekend will cause major disruption, but it might also make some people a few extra bucks.”
“Why it matters: Everyday Americans are increasingly betting on the weather through prediction markets — an activity long reserved as a tool for businesses and big professional traders.”
💡 My take: Even the big storm brought a rather small amount of trading vs. sports and most other markets. But it did result in some earned media for the two companies!
The biggest market on Kalshi was snow over the course of several days in New York City, which has seen $4 million in volume. A similar market at Polymarket has less than a million in volume.
You can trade on whether Kalshi stops offering sports event contracts… at Polymarket:
Legacy Media’s Risky Bet (Status, paywall): “In search of new revenue streams, newsrooms are embracing prediction market companies as partners —an ethically dubious move that launders speculation as serious data journalism.”
Kalshi probability for Best Supporting Actor Oscar winner (Axios): “A lot more people are putting cold, hard cash on the line to back up their Oscars predictions this year.”
Kalshi “news” content: I have written about affiliates and Kalshi before, but here’s a particularly glaring example of how prominent promo code content has become on Google news listings:
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_
Google’s “top stories” about Kalshi
6:34 PM · Jan 25, 2026 · 4.17K Views
4 Replies · 1 Repost · 26 Likes
That Newsweek post should really not be allowed. There is only a $10 bonus, and it seems to be implying if you trade $100, get the bonus and win the trade, you get $210. Which is misleading at best and dishonest at worst.
I used to prop up this kind of content working for an affiliate marketing company. But from the safety of 2026, I wish this kind of “news” content would go away.
Gemini self-certifies new sports event contracts on point totals:
Ukraine banned Polymarket and there’s no legal way for it to come back (CoinDesk): “There is no legal way for Web3 prediction markets to operate in Ukraine under current laws, according to a senior official involved in shaping the country’s digital economy policy. In comments shared with CoinDesk days after Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket and nearly 200 gambling-related websites Dmitry Nikolaievskyi, chief legal officer at the Project Office for the Development of Ukraine’s Digital Economy at the Ministry of Digital Transformation, revealed a deadlock for Web3 prediction markets in the country.”
Online bettors mint money on Elon Musk’s misses (NBC News): “There’s a popular saying among fans of tech billionaire Elon Musk: Never bet against him. But in the booming world of online prediction markets, some people are not only betting against Musk, but also bringing in big paydays doing so. On the prediction market websites Kalshi and Polymarket, some bettors are making tens of thousands of dollars by wagering that Musk will fall short on his many ambitious — but so far unrealized — plans, including a robotaxi service in California and a third political party in the United States.”
ICYMI, here’s my latest podcast from Friday: