One Nation’s polling surge has continued with a record-high primary vote of 22% in the latest Guardian Essential poll off the back of ongoing Coalition chaos and rising social tensions.

Meanwhile, there is widespread public support for the Labor government’s response to the Bondi beach terror attack, with a majority backing crackdowns on guns, hate speech and protests. However, most poll respondents say Anthony Albanese has poorly handled the fallout from the antisemitic shooting.

The prime minister’s personal approval rating continues to fall, but there is also little good news for the opposition leader, Sussan Ley, whose popularity has dropped as she faces the prospect of a Liberal leadership spill as early as next week.

The latest Guardian Essential poll of 1,022 Australians was conducted between Tuesday and Friday last week, following the passage of Labor’s antisemitism and gun reforms through the parliament, and during the latest split in the Coalition.

Labor’s primary vote was recorded at 31% – a three-point drop from last month’s 34% and the 34.6% it recorded at the May election. The Liberal-National Coalition primary vote was 25% and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation recorded 22%. The Greens polled 9%.

One Nation’s vote was a five-point surge from the 17% recorded in December’s Essential poll.

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This week, Demos recorded a 24% primary vote for Hanson’s party, while last week’s Newspoll recorded a 22% primary and Resolve put One Nation at 18%.

One Nation’s rising polling numbers, especially in regional and rural Coalition seats, had been a factor in growing unrest and alarm inside the opposition, including the Nationals’ decision to split from the Liberals, and the leadership jostling from Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor.

Hanson last month recruited Nationals turncoat Barnaby Joyce, with expectations among some Coalition sources that further Nationals members could switch allegiance.

Ley and her allies were staring down a campaign from the Liberal right faction to end her leadership. The Essential poll found an approval rating of 30 and a disapproval of 47, a drop from December’s 34-43 respectively.

But the prime minister’s approval ratings to start the year also fell, with 39 approval and 53 disapproval – a drop from December’s 43-45 respectively.

Asked specifically about how Albanese handled issues arising from the Bondi terror attack, only 10% said “very well” and 26% said “reasonably well”, with 22% saying “not that well” and 34% “not well at all”. In total, 36% approved of his handling while 55% disapproved.

Despite plummeting personal approval ratings for the two major party leaders, Australians strongly backed the package of laws in response to the Bondi shooting.

Of those polled, 73% backed banning public display of terrorist symbols, 63% approved of stronger gun laws, 62% backed more police powers to curb protests, and 60% backed new laws on hate speech. A commonwealth royal commission into antisemitism was supported by 56% of people.

However, only 35% backed extending hate speech laws to protect all religions and groups like the LGBTQ+ community and people with a disability, which Labor is said to be considering.

In a set of broader social cohesion questions, 70% of people believed there was tension between people of different races and nationalities in Australia, and 69% believed people were scared to say what they believe for fear of being labelled racist.

Only 38% believed Australia was less racist than it had been in the past, a four-point drop from when this question was last asked in an Essential poll in September 2025; 35% said a member of their family had experienced racism, up by five points since September, while 33% said they had personally experienced racism, also up five points since September.