The Chase is back, and NASCAR’s simplified points format completely changes the math heading into 2026. With no “win and you’re in” safety net, consistency, stage points, and regular-season seeding matter more than ever. This video breaks down which 16 drivers are most likely to qualify for the Chase and where they stack up after the regular season ends.
Who is the best bet to win the regular season championship and claim the crucial points advantage?
Which established contenders are virtual locks under the new Chase format?
Which borderline drivers benefit most, or suffer most, from the end of automatic playoff berths?
Which surprise pick could sneak into the final Chase spot and shock the field?
From Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports heavyweights to rising teams and risky long shots, every decision is rooted in points trends, stage performance, reliability, and momentum. Some big names are safely in, others are right on the cut line, and a few notable drivers are left watching from the outside. With the season starting at Bowman Gray and Daytona looming, this is a full blueprint for how the Chase picture could look before race one even drops the green.
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