The 2024-25 NHL season was one filled with surprises. We saw more than a few in the standings, especially among some teams that qualified for the playoffs. But not all teams that shot up in the standings may be able to repeat their success in 2025-26. Here are five teams that could regress next season.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals were the biggest surprise of the 2024-25 season, as they finished with 111 points, capturing the Metropolitan Division crown by a comfortable margin over the Carolina Hurricanes. I’m sure some of their success had to do with Alex Ovechkin’s chase for Wayne Gretzky’s goals record, but the Capitals may not be as fortunate next season.
It’s not that I don’t think they’ll be a playoff team. They should be, especially in a division as weak as the Metropolitan, but they had more than a few players have career seasons, and perhaps unsustainably so. You need to look no further than some individual shooting percentages:
Aliaksei Protas: 21.1 percent
Tom Wilson: 19.9 percent
Dylan Strome: 19.5 percent
Alex Ovechkin: 18.6 percent
Jakob Chychrun: 11.7 percent
For context’s sake, let’s compare those to their career averages:
Protas: 11.6 percent
Wilson: 12.8 percent
Strome: 15.4 percent
Ovechkin: 13.1 percent
Chychrun: 7.4 percent
As you can see, the Capitals had plenty of outliers when it comes to shooting the puck, most notably Protas and Wilson, who shot well above their career averages. Protas is the biggest outlier of them all, as he had 13 combined goals in his three prior seasons. I doubt he’ll regress that hard, but I wouldn’t bet on him shooting 21 percent and scoring 30 goals again. The same is true for Wilson.
Not only was a shooting bender the reason the Capitals rocketed to the top of the Metro, but Logan Thompson saved a career-high 26 goals above expected. He’s always been a reliable above-average netminder, but I wouldn’t count on him going 31-6-6 and saving 26 goals above expected again.
Vegas seems to have taken note, as sportsbooks have the Capitals’ over/under at 95.5 points for next season. Matching that shouldn’t keep them out of the playoffs, but it’s unlikely they dominate the Metro as they did in 2024-25.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets, much like the Capitals, were the biggest surprise of their respective conference. They got off a scorching hot start and never looked back, winning 56 games and finishing with 116 points, earning them the Presidents’ Trophy. They improved at five-on-five as the season progressed and played a much more sustainable game than the other teams we’ll mention here.
Apr 21, 2024; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey (44) celebrates his first period goal with Winnipeg Jets defenseman Dylan DeMelo (2) against the Colorado Avalanche in game one of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
So why are the Jets a regression candidate? Much like the New York Rangers after winning the Presidents’ Trophy in 2024, it’s just difficult to repeat a 56-win, 116-point season. They won’t have as much scoring punch after losing Nikolaj Ehlers to the Hurricanes in free agency, and they haven’t done much to replace him.
The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche are the clear favorites for the top two spots in the Central, with the Jets falling in line right after them. Connor Hellebuyck is an all-world goalie, especially in the regular season, so he’ll prop the team up. He alone gives me pause about considering the Jets as a regression candidate, but they look more like a 95-100 point team as we sit here today.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs are one of the more interesting regression candidates entering next season. They won the Atlantic Division with 52 wins and 108 points, but they will have a different look going into 2025-26. Mitch Marner signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in free agency, and there’s only so much they can do to replace him.
To be fair to general manager Brad Treliving, he’s made some decent moves to shore up their depth after losing Marner. Matias Maccelli is a good bounce-back candidate, and Dakota Joshua is a competent bottom-six forward. They can help make up for some of the 100 points they lost in Marner, and Treliving likely has some more moves in the works.
Still, it’s not only losing Marner that could result in the Maple Leafs taking a step back. They were one of the weaker five-on-five teams in 2024-25, finishing with a 48.52 percent expected goals share (xG%), ranked 23rd in the NHL.
Part of the reason the Maple Leafs outperformed some of their expected numbers was that they had some of the best goaltending in the NHL. They finished with a .926 save percentage at five-on-five, second best to Hellebuyck and the Jets. Anthony Stolarz is one of the more underrated goalies in the NHL, as he’s posted a .925 SV% across his last 57 NHL games. His backup, Joseph Woll, was solid, too, saving 16.8 goals above expected.
Between them, Stolarz and Woll saved 42.6 goals above expected. Even with Stolarz’s recent form, it’ll be tough to repeat those efforts, especially since the Maple Leafs, as of now, have a weaker roster heading into next season. And the odds of taking a step back from 108 points only increase if they don’t improve as a team at five-on-five.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets were the feel-good story of the 2024-25 season and barely missed the playoffs, finishing just two points behind the New Jersey Devils for third place in the Metropolitan Division. Aside from acquiring Miles Wood and Charlie Coyle this summer, they’ll return a young roster that features budding stars like Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko and Adam Fantilli.
Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, their underlying process last season suggests they could be in store for hard regression. They were heavily outshot and out-chanced at five-on-five and had the third-highest shooting percentage in the NHL at that game state; the Capitals were first. They scored 201 goals on 178.23 expected goals, and while they have some high-end finishing talent, their scoring rates likely aren’t sustainable.
It’s not just their unsustainable scoring rates that are a concern, too. The Blue Jackets got by because they outscored a defense that could not prevent quality shots and scoring chances. They were one of the worst rush defense teams in the NHL, and struggled to defend just about everything else:
The Blue Jackets’ microstats for the 2024-25 season
If there’s a silver lining for the Blue Jackets, it’s that the Metropolitan Division is not particularly good. The Hurricanes are the favorites, but even they have some warts they need to address. Still, I’d bet more on the Blue Jackets taking a step back before they take the next step forward until they start playing a more sustainable way.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens got hot to end last season and snuck into the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but they had many of the red flags that most of the teams in this article had. They were not a particularly good defensive team at five-on-five, allowing the second-most expected goals per 60 in the NHL to the Anaheim Ducks. But they got excellent goaltending from Sam Montembault (24.6 goals saved above expected) and Jakub Dobes (9 goals saved above expected). They probably won’t be as lucky next season if their defense is as porous as it was in 2024-25.
But, much like the Blue Jackets, the Canadiens will return a young roster with plenty of promising talent, like Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky, to name a few. They also shored up their forward depth by acquiring Zach Bolduc from the St. Louis Blues, and they’ll have a full season of Ivan Demidov.
They also added a top-pair caliber defenseman in Noah Dobson, so management has done their best to help the team build on a surprise playoff appearance. But the Atlantic Division is arguably the best in the NHL, and it won’t be easy for the Canadiens to make up ground on the four teams that finished ahead of them in 2024-25. I’m more optimistic about them avoiding regression than the Blue Jackets, but they have a challenge ahead because of the strength of the Atlantic.
Teams always defy the odds. The Jets are a good example of a team I had tabbed as a regression candidate for last season, but outperformed expectations due to Hellebuyck’s dominant campaign. Some organizations will perform over expectations in 2025-26, but eventually, luck runs out if they can’t find more sustainable ways to win games.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck
