Back in August we used this article posted on June 30th, 2022 to identify a few potential breakout candidates for 2025-26. The summary is that there tends to be a game count by which players start to break out. In this case breakout is defined as a 25 percent year-over-year increase. What they found is that average size forwards need about 200 games, and D plus exceptionally small, or larger forwards need about 400 games. Please go check it out for more details, but one section in particular has caught my attention and I have been using it the past several years to identify potential breakout candidates in the off season.
“It’s always a great indicator if you see that a player finishes the previous season with 230 or 240 career games and he just enjoyed a very strong second half. When you see that, then feel confident in a potential breakout for the year ahead.”
In August then I ran the numbers and came up with the list of players below. It includes their 82-game pace from 24-25 and what that 25 percent year over year increase would amount to.
NamePosTeam24-25 82 PaceBreakout PaceSHANE PINTOCOTT4354MASON MCTAVISHCANA5670WYATT JOHNSTONCDAL7189JJ PETERKALUTA7290JAKE NEIGHBOURSLSTL4556COLE PERFETTIRWPG5063
Given the pause in NHL action we are going to check in on their progress.
With Shane Pinto I wasn’t entirely convinced he would see a big jump in deployment given the center depth ahead of him, but was still optimistic as he had essentially reached his breakout number before. Fast forward and Pinto is seeing a career high time on ice (almost 19 minutes a night), with decent power-play time and shot rates. There was a bit more opportunity at the start of the season with injuries, but he has been seeing slightly decreasing minutes each quarter so far. Overall though he is on a 51-point pace which is pretty close to his projection. His team shooting percentage is too high though so with that paired with the dipping trends in ice time, it certainly seems likely that he ends below the 50-point pace mark.
All signs pointed to a strong season for Mason McTavish. The big question marks were the new coach, and new players which might hamper his deployment. To this point, 25-26 hasn’t been that kind to McTavish. His overall time on ice is down, his power-play percentage is down, and his shot rate is down. Given all of that it is not surprising that his overall point pace is down from 56 to 48. He has seen small increases in power-play time each quarter, but unfortunately his overall time is trending down from the start of the season. That is with Leo Carlsson out too, who definitely was taking the lion’s share of the opportunity at the start of the season. The preseason concerns are definitely showing here, a lot of new faces and a new coach meant some of the deployment bump we were hoping for went to Carlsson, and then with him out the Ducks seem to be going for some kind of top nine, which certainly doesn’t benefit McTavish. He has had a few stretches of relevance, but mostly a 50ish point player seems to be where he has settled.
The only question for Wyatt Johnston was how high could he really go? He had been increasing point totals every season, and was likely to keep going, but what was the ceiling? In 25-26 it appears to be around 85 points. He has increased his time on ice to over 20 minutes a night with almost 75 percent of the power-play time. He does have a career high shooting percentage of 19, but he has consistently hit 14-16 percent so 19 isn’t quite as high as it looks. One interesting note is the 18 goals he has so far on the power play. That provides a good rationale for why his shooting percentage is a little higher than average. Having 18 power-play goals is a pretty huge number and I certainly wonder about sustainability there. Taken all together though, Johnston is doing great, just like predicted, and it looks pretty sustainable. His full projection was an 89-point pace which he is just a good percentage run away from hitting.
I was pretty down on JJ Peterka over the summer and in the potential breakout article. He was moving to a new team, and his 70-point pace already looked pretty unsustainable. We’re 57 games in and those concerns seem justified. He is mostly playing in the top six, but is down almost two minutes a night on average, and has not been consistently on the top power-play. He has gotten a few opportunities recently, but still not consistently. His shot rates are also back down below two per game after two stronger seasons in Buffalo. His 24-25 season was unsustainably strong, so a regression was always a possibility. If he had stayed in Buffalo and gotten the deployment bump some of the other breakout candidates have gotten, maybe he could have repeated that 70-point pace. Without it his current 55-point pace seems pretty close to his ceiling.
Jake Neighbors did not present as the best case to breakout over the summer. There were concerns about his deployment, the arrival of new players, and his underlying numbers. Up to now in 25-26, Neighbors is basically matching what he did in 24-25. That is fine, but not exactly what we were hoping for. He still hasn’t been able to break the 50-point threshold, he hasn’t increased his time on ice, his shot counts are decreasing, and his personal shooting percentage is definitely too high. All of that does not provide much reason for confidence. On the plus side, he has been increasing his time on ice through the course of the season – up almost two minutes since the beginning of the season. Just before the break he was lining up with Pavel Buchnevich and Jordan Kyrou, which is definitely an interesting place to be. If that time on ice can keep ticking up and he gets to keep these linemates, there is certainly a chance he can sustain his otherwise unsustainable pace, and maybe even break a 50-point pace. Getting over 55 though does seems but more of a stretch.
The departure of Nikolaj Ehlers made Cole Perfetti a very intriguing candidate. Unfortunately, he missed the first chunk of the season and since then has really disappointed. In 42 games he has actually averaged 30 seconds less on ice time per game. When players make this list we are thinking their deployment will get better, not worse. Especially when a top player on their team leaves a giant opening for them to walk into. Perfetti has definitely not. His 35-point pace is his worst since his rookie season. Yes, his team and personal shooting percentages are a bit low, so maybe those will bounce back and give him a few more points. That would only bring him up to a 40- to 45-point pace though, still down from his 24-25 season. He has typically been on a third line and second power-play, but there is one bright spot here. In Winnipeg’s last three games he has gotten over 50 percent of the team’s power-play time on the top unit, and in their February 4th game, Perfetti saw over 20 minutes of total ice time. We will see after the break if this is just a short-term experiment or if a sign of things to come. For what it is worth he did have three points and eleven shots in those three games, one coming on the power play. If you have some space and see he is practicing on the top power-play before Winnipeg returns to action, Perfetti might be worth a speculative add, though be prepared to drop him quickly if it doesn’t pan out.
That is all for this week.
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