A recent Strava upload and the reaction to it has given me reason to believe that we need to recalibrate our own sense of what his power data really reveals – or doesn’t.
Cor Vos, Kramon
Tadej Pogačar’s power numbers are big. That’s about as controversial a statement as saying the Alps are hilly. You don’t set endless records on historic alpine climbs without some serious watts per kilogram numbers. Speculation around the World Champ’s functional threshold power (FTP) has long been discussed, with figures over 430 watts and high six-point-something w/kg in the conversation.
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The issue is that while the Slovenian is a serial Strava uploader, he, like many other pros, keeps all his power data private. However, the data blackout ended recently, when he went on a solo ride from Valencia to Calpe.
While he took to the ride description to discuss an unsavoury interaction with a ‘fan,’ elsewhere on the page, his power numbers and training zones sat there waiting for the cycling world to go into frenzy. But can we actually learn anything meaningful from one steady February ride? Yes, but probably not in the way you think.
The ride
Pogačar is no stranger to the Valencia/Calpe roads, and at this time of year, it plays home for much of the pro peloton as they prepare for the start of the European race calendar. However, on the ride in question, he headed out alone, no tagged training partners, no teammates, just a steady solo endurance ride.
The numbers speak for themselves:
132 kilometres435 metres of elevation gainThree hours and 14 minutes
That works out at an average speed of 40.9 km/h. Impressive? Obviously. But is it surprising? Only if you haven’t been paying attention for the last five seasons. This is a rider who has proven he can average over 45 km/h deep into five-hour Monuments with far more climbing and far more intensity preceding it.
The ride in question saw the World Champion average almost 41 km/h, and was noteworthy not just for the power, but for the ride description.
To hold almost 41 km/h, Pogačar averaged 299 watts, with a normalised power of 312 watts; that’s a remarkably steady effort given the length of the ride and the climbing towards the end of it. There were no all-out anaerobic efforts, no maximal sprints. Just controlled aerobic time in the saddle, which – as we’ll see – is the primary notable thing about the power file.
But as for what it says about Pogačar’s abilities, the post is much less notable. For most amateurs, the idea of riding at 300 watts for over three hours feels borderline absurd. But that’s precisely the point. For Pogačar, it’s not. And treating it as if it is notable says more about our perception than it does about the ride itself, or the rider responsible for it.
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