Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Barclays upgraded Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) two notches to “overweight” from “underweight” while raising its price target to C$137 from C$126.

Analyst Brian Morton largely tied the upgrade to more attractive valuations versus peers, as well as improving financial performance.

“Over the past two years, CM has demonstrated progress towards its medium-term targets supported by return on equity expansion, more consistent earnings performance, positive operating leverage, benign credit quality and higher capital deployment through share repurchases. Still, at just under 13x next year’s earnings, it trades at a modest discount to the group,” he said in a note to clients.

“Going forward, we expect these trends to continue supported by further net interest margin expansion with potential upside to its 15%+ medium-term return on equity target (14.4% in 2025),” he added.

Barclays also raised price targets for Canada’s other big banks as it looked ahead to upcoming earnings later this month. It said the price hikes were mostly due to abating concerns around mortgage renewals and potential economic stimulus from increased government spending.

The changes were:

Bank of Montreal (BMO-T): Price target is now C$196 (+C$15).

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T): Price target is C$106 (+C$9).

CIBC (CM-T): Target goes to C$137 (+C$11).

National Bank (NA-T): Price target is C$177 (+C$13).

Royal Bank (RY-T): Price target is C$244 (+C$17).

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD-T): Price target is C$133 (+C$15).

For more on Barclays’ earnings preview for the banks, see this morning’s Research Roundup from Scott Barlow

A long-awaited “positive inflection” in market rents is nearing for Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (DIR-UN-T), said Desjardins analyst Kyle Stanley, who raised his price target on the REIT after in-line fourth-quarter results.

The quarterly results were highlighted by 8.4% growth in same property net operating income, the best since 2023.

“DIR delivered a solid year on the leasing front in 2025 with 7.4msf of leases signed at a 20% spread (2.1msf in 4Q at a 14% spread),” Mr. Stanley said in a note. “With ~6msf of positive absorption in 4Q, an expected 33% decline in new supply deliveries, significant pre-leasing activity and ~40msf of active space requirements in the market nationally, the leasing set-up for 2026 appears robust.”

“With peak market vacancy in view, management expects the long-awaited inflection in market rents in 2026. More specifically, rental rate growth is likely to turn positive in Western Canada first, with the GTA and GMA to follow, with small- to mid-bay space benefiting first. Our outlook assumes a >20% leasing spread in 2026, with ~30% of the maturities in Ontario, while we expect largely consistent occupancy in the ~96% range,” he said.

Mr. Stanley increased his price target to C$15.50 from C$14.50 and reiterated a “buy” rating.

Elsewhere, Raymond James raised its price target to C$15 from C$14.75 and reiterated an “outperform” rating.

Raymond James analyst Brad Sturges presented three main points in summing up his view: “We believe that DIR may benefit from various potential positive catalysts: 1) a new Canadian-US free trade agreement that reduces potential economic risks for the Canadian manufacturing sector; 2) improving demand and supply dynamics for the Canadian industrial real estate sector that could be benefit from rising leasing demand from defense sector industrial users; and 3) the establishment of a new European JV fund that can help to partly validate its estimated NAV/unit.”

TFI International Inc. (TFII-T) remains Desjardins analyst Benoit Poirier’s top pick in the transportation sector, even though he is disappointed that a transformative acquisition no longer appears likely for 2026.

In presenting TFI’s fourth quarter results, management indicated 2026 will likely be a year of smaller deals. “Large transactions take time, and until the US-Canada trade deal is renewed, completing a deal of size will be difficult. Therefore, capital deployment is expected to centre on tuck-in M&A (~US$200–300m), debt repayment and share repurchases subject to valuation,” Mr. Poirier said in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, management’s outlook for the first quarter is cautious due to January’s weather-related challenges, and although February is showing early signs of improvement, the quarter remains heavily weighted toward March, which will ultimately determine performance, the analyst noted. “On the improving U.S. trucking market, TFI is seeing early signs of momentum in its Daseke business, while TForce is experiencing some pricing pressure,” he said.

He lowered his first quarter 2026 EPS estimates to US$0.60 (from US$0.87), driven by what he views to be “overly conservative” model assumptions.

Overall, he says the company “stands out for its U.S. exposure, superior free cash flow yield (8% vs ~3–4% for the rails), greater torque to an improving freight cycle, unique self-help drivers and benefits from the absence of a transcon-merger overhang. Additionally, we see TFII as a beneficiary of the ongoing HALO (Heavy Assets Low Obsolescence) sector rotation.”

He raised his price target to C$183 from C$173 and reiterated a “buy” rating.

Elsewhere, Walter Spracklin also raised his price target, to US$137 from US$125 and reiterated an “outperform” rating.

TD Cowen has resumed coverage of embattled Allied Properties REIT (AP-UN-T) following the company’s $560 million equity raise.

Analyst Jonathan Kelcher significantly reduced his financial and net asset value estimates for the REIT as a result of well below forecast fourth quarter results, a slower-than-expected occupancy recovery and the equity raise.

That translated into a revised price target of C$10, down from C$14.50. He continues to rate the REIT as a “hold”.

The issuing of equity was necessary to shore up Allied Properties’ balance sheet given weaker-than-expected fourth quarter results and a sluggish pace of asset sales, he noted.

Management introduced an action plan that included new targets out to 2028. Mr. Kelcher said he views the company’s 2026 outlook as “achievable.”

“Occupied area is forecast to dip in the first part of the year before hitting 84%-86% by year-end (largely unchanged from current levels). The most challenging target to achieve in our view will be $500 million in asset dispositions, including the two apartment properties. We believe pricing will likely come in below IFRS values and are forecasting only $416 million in total sales,” Mr. Kelcher said.

Overall he thinks Allied remains a “show me” story, as management works to regain investor confidence.

Scotia analyst Phil Hardie expects a smooth transition at Power Corp. (POW-T) as James O’Sullivan becomes its new president and CEO this July, replacing Jeff Orr.

“The move is not entirely surprising given Mr. Orr’s 25-year tenure in leadership roles across the Power Group, with many investors viewing Mr. O’Sullivan as a natural successor given his leadership experience as CEO of IGM Financial and tenure at Scotiabank prior to that role,” commented Mr. Hardie. “We think the transition is occurring at a time of strength across the Power Group of companies and see little risk of disruption as Power Corp remains focused on maintaining the group’s strong momentum and executing its value creation strategy.”

“Our investment thesis related to POW remains intact with ‘all systems go’ and the stock delivering significant alpha generation to investors through a combination of NAV per share growth, a tightened discount rate and dividend income,” he added.

Mr. Hardie raised his price target to C$78 from C$76 and he reiterated a “sector outperform” rating.

ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Sairam Srinivas cut his price target on Dream Impact Trust (MPCT-UN-T) but still sees considerable upside in the purpose built rental company.

His target is now C$3.50, down from C$4.40, and he continues to rate the trust a “speculative buy.”

Dream Impact’s debt maturities are weighing on the trust’s price but Mr. Srinivas notes the future shows promise.

“While the current market for purpose-built rentals is soft, MPCT’s portfolio of purpose-built rentals, which is expected to account for ~90% of the Trust’s value by 2030, will be competitively positioned (from a quality perspective) post market recovery. MPCT’s current unit price is significantly below our target which only values the income-producing assets, offering investors with a long-term holding appetite a very healthy margin of safety,” the analyst told clients in a note.

Earlier in January the trust announced that the board approved a five-year strategic plan that includes the development of 49 Ontario and Quayside. The plan also includes crystallizing the value of all the Trust’s commercial assets, passive investments, and selling some of the multifamily assets to infuse liquidity. The goal is for the trust to own about 2,300 rental units by 2030 with multi-family forming about 90% of the Trust’s asset base.

“While we admit development can be very risky, we would like to highlight the importance of the pedigree of the development platform. With Dream, investors have an opportunity to partner up with an experienced development platform which will in ~5 years own a portfolio of competitive purpose-built rental assets, at zero cost (no value for development being priced at current levels),” Mr. Srinivas said.

RBC analyst James McGarragle was impressed with management discussions last week with Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T). He reiterated an “outperform” rating and raised his price target to C$35 from C$31.

Adjusted EBITDA at Chorus Aviation came in at $47.1 million, below consensus of $50.2 million. But after a call back with management about future plans, he thinks those performance figures aren’t all that important.

“Management is targeting through 2029 $525MM in planned capital allocation at the mid-point consisting of $190MM in loan payments, $100MM in buybacks, $40MM in dividends, and $195MM (at the mid-point) of flexible capital allocation. The planned capital allocation will be funded by ~$450MM in FCF (company definition) and $78MM in near-term aircraft sales; subtracting the loan payments leaves $330MM of available cash for shareholder returns, M&A, organic investment, and/or debt repayment. A compelling opportunity on a $500MM market cap, in our view,” Mr. McGarragle said in a note to clients Thursday.

“Chorus last week increased its dividend (forward yield of 2%) and announced an NCIB representing 10% of its public float. Important is that we believe Chorus can execute fully on the NCIB with 2026E FCF and previously announced aircraft sales, and still have cash left over for M&A, organic investment, and/or debt repayments,” he added. “Important is that we expect cash flows to grow off a 2026/2027 trough and therefore highlight Chorus as a compelling small cap idea.”

CIBC downgraded Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” as it cut its price target to C$16 from C$20.

Capstone earlier this week released its 2026 guidance, which included a lower production outlook year-over-year, higher costs, and higher capex across its asset portfolio.

CIBC analyst Anita Soni said her lower price target largely reflected “the impact of trimmed production across the asset portfolio, higher costs at Mantoverde, and benchmarking to higher sustaining capex longer term vs. our previous estimates at Mantoverde.”

“With our revised price target, there is insufficient return to target to maintain an Outperformer rating,” she said.

Desjardins made a similar downgrade on Capstone Copper on Wednesday.