Listen to this article
Estimated 4 minutes
The audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology. Mispronunciations can occur. We are working with our partners to continually review and improve the results.
The opening of the new Gordie Howe bridge connecting Windsor, Ont., and Detroit is widely expected to change the way billions of dollars worth of goods and millions of travellers cross between Canada and the U.S.
But a recent U.S. government analysis offers fresh insight on just how significant the traffic shift could be along the busiest international trade corridor in North America.Â
The new span, which has become President Donald Trump’s latest target in his ongoing economic battle with Canada, will cut deep into the number of crossings at the nearby Ambassador Bridge, according to the analysis.Â
In particular, commercial traffic at the privately owned bridge is set to drop from nearly three million vehicles annually to around 1.6 million once the Gordie Howe bridge is open, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Transport trucks currently pay at least $15 per axle to cross the Ambassador Bridge.
Commercial trucks and passenger vehicles drive across Ambassador Bridge on Aug. 9, 2018. (Cole Burston/Bloomberg)
The nearly century-old Ambassador Bridge is owned by the wealthy Moroun family of Michigan, which has long opposed the new crossing down the Detroit River. The family has donated heavily to Trump and the Republican party over the last decade, and the bridge company has spent millions in recent years on a top lobbying firm in Washington.
Up until recently, the Trump administration appeared supportive of the new span — publishing the traffic analysis on Jan. 30 as part of a rule establishing the Gordie Howe bridge as an official port of entry.
But 10 days later, Trump took to social media to threaten to block its opening unless Canada, which has paid for the project in full, delivers various concessions.
According to the New York Times, that threat came just hours after Matthew Moroun, CEO of the Ambassador Bridge company, met with a member of Trump’s cabinet in Washington.
Gordie Howe bridge to get most traffic: DHS estimate
The new span will attract the biggest share of both commercial and passenger traffic in the area once open, which is expected to happen sometime this year, according to DHS.
Among the four crossings in the region, the Gordie Howe bridge will attract 28 per cent of passenger vehicle traffic and nearly 45 per cent of commercial vehicle traffic.
An estimate from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on traffic distribution once the Gordie Howe bridge opens sometime this year. (DHS)
The share of commercial vehicle traffic crossing the Ambassador will drop from around 65 per cent to 33 per cent, while passenger traffic will decline from 36 per cent to around 23 per cent.
Representatives from the Ambassador Bridge and Gordie Howe bridge did not respond to requests for comment.
Both types of traffic at the Blue Water Bridge near Sarnia, Ont., will be affected, but not as significantly.
Cut to passenger traffic at tunnel
Another crossing set to see a notable drop in traffic — in this case, passenger vehicles — is the tunnel connecting Windsor and Detroit.Â
The underwater tunnel currently sees around 3.8 million vehicles total cross each year, the vast majority of which are passenger vehicles, according to DHS’ figures. That number will drop to roughly 2.2 million once the Gordie Howe bridge opens.Â
The tunnel is half owned by the City of Windsor and generates dividends for the city. But the head of the tunnel says they’re prepared for the shift — and overall, don’t think the impact will be too significant.
“The thought is certainly when Gordie Howe opens, we’ll be excited, it’ll be a spectacular thing for our region,” Tal Czudner, the tunnel’s CEO, said Friday. “And I did budget that we would drop around 7 per cent in the first month that the Gordie Howe bridge opened — it’s very difficult to determine the true impact — and then less of a drop over the ensuing months.”
“We looked at it as if you live in South Windsor, LaSalle, you’re coming down from London or Toronto and you’re going to a destination in the United States, you’re likely already taking the Ambassador Bridge,” he said.
“But if you’re a Windsorite and you’re going to work at Henry Ford Hospital or you’re going to a Tiger game, you’re going to Detroit Institute of Arts, you’re likely taking the tunnel.
“We’re cognizant of it and we need to be mindful of expenses and some alternate sources of revenue, but we’re optimistic that long-term, we will be fine,” he added.