WASHINGTON – Signals of labor market weakness go beyond the headline numbers that prompted President Donald Trump to fire the government’s head statistician last week.
The jobs report released Friday showed a slowdown in hiring, a slight uptick in the national unemployment rate, and a few other clues that the economy is softening — including an increase in long-term unemployment.
The number of people jobless for six months or more increased from 1.6 million to 1.8 million in July, representing 24% of the unemployed. It’s the most people experiencing long-term joblessness since the end of 2021 and the highest percentage since February 2022, when the economy was still recovering from coronavirus lockdowns.
Valerie Wilson, a labor economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute, said the modest rise in long-term joblessness could reflect employers getting pickier about hiring as President Donald Trump’s tariff regime changes the cost of doing business.
“People who have been unemployed for longer have clearly had some challenges in getting back into the labor market,” Wilson told HuffPost. “I think that as things have softened, and employers are facing more uncertainty given the sort of chaotic nature of economic policy in this country, that it would be harder for those people to find new jobs.”
Persistently high long-term joblessness was a hallmark of slow recovery from the Great Recession that officially ended in 2009. It disproportionately affected older workers, becoming a self-perpetuating problem as employers sought job applicants with minimal or no gaps on their resumes.
HuffPost readers: Dealing with long-term unemployment? Tell us about it – email arthur@huffpost.com. Please include your phone number if you’re willing to be interviewed.
Some economists worry another recession could be around the corner. The overall unemployment rate remained low in July, at just 4.2%, and the economy has continued to add jobs, albeit at a slower pace than previously estimated. Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggest the last three months were the weakest for job growth since the pandemic. Trump fired the BLS commissioner on Friday, claiming without evidence that the numbers were somehow “rigged” to make him look bad.
20 Years OfFreeJournalism
Your Support Fuels Our Mission
Your Support Fuels Our Mission
For two decades, HuffPost has been fearless, unflinching, and relentless in pursuit of the truth. Support our mission to keep us around for the next 20 — we can’t do this without you.
We remain committed to providing you with the unflinching, fact-based journalism everyone deserves.
Thank you again for your support along the way. We’re truly grateful for readers like you! Your initial support helped get us here and bolstered our newsroom, which kept us strong during uncertain times. Now as we continue, we need your help more than ever. We hope you will join us once again.
We remain committed to providing you with the unflinching, fact-based journalism everyone deserves.
Thank you again for your support along the way. We’re truly grateful for readers like you! Your initial support helped get us here and bolstered our newsroom, which kept us strong during uncertain times. Now as we continue, we need your help more than ever. We hope you will join us once again.
Already contributed? Log in to hide these messages.
The labor force shrank slightly in July, helping hold down the unemployment rate even as the number of employed workers declined. Wilson noted the unemployment rate for Black Americans rose to 7.2%, up from a recent historical low of 4.8% in April 2023.
“Over the last two months, we’re seeing the black unemployment rate pick up, which is another one that as that starts to rise, we start to look for signals of a broader slowing in the economy,” Wilson said.