Zach Thompson details some of his Round 3 best bets for The Genesis Invitational this Saturday at The Riviera Country Club.
The PGA TOUR made up for some lost time on Thursday due to rain and is back on schedule for Round 3 of The Genesis Invitational this Saturday in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of West Los Angeles. The first tee time is 10:30 a.m. ET as Denny McCarthy begins the action before pairs tee off from the first hole throughout the morning.
Any time throughout the day Saturday, you can build your Round 3 betting card on DraftKings Sportsbook at any time throughout the tournament with a wide variety of offerings, including everything from single-player props to full-field scoring props and everything from one-hole results to where a specific player will place for the entire four-round event.
The big storylines so far in the tournament have been Scottie Scheffler’s struggles and the relative unknowns at the top of the leaderboard. Scheffler grinded in the first two rounds to make the cut on the number, and he is in one of the early groups to tee off on Saturday. He’ll start the day 12 shots off the lead shared by Marco Penge and Jacob Bridgeman. Rory McIlroy is just one shot off the lead with Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott rounding out the top five at the start of the day.
Let’s take a look at the plethora of plays available and pinpoint a few best bets for Round 3 of The Genesis Invitational this Saturday.
Let’s start the day with a straight-up score prop for the lefty from Scotland. Bobby Mac struggled to a +2 Round 1 on the par-71 at The Riviera Country Club. He had two birdies and four bogeys and looked like he might be in danger of missing the cut.
Round 2 was much better for MacIntyre, who started with five straight pars before dropping four birdies in six holes while making the turn. He did drop two shots in his last three holes to finish with a 69 at just over this prop line.
Even though he hasn’t gone under this prop in either of his first two rounds, I think the 29-year-old has a good chance of delivering on this plus-money prop in scorable Saturday conditions. In his only previous career appearance, he went under this prop in two of his four rounds, including Round 3. He finished that week T-15 and could charge to a similar finish with a strong weekend this year.
Lefties have a strong history at Riviera, and MacIntyre seemed to be finding his way in Round 2 before slipping up late.
Round 3 – 18 Hole Matchup: Jake Knapp (-108) over Collin Morikawa
In this head-to-head matchup, I’m ready for Knapp time this Saturday!
Knapp takes on last week’s champion Collin Morikawa in this 18-hole matchup, with Morikawa the favorite. If you play this as a 3-way matchup (with tie not being a push), Knapp’s odds grow to +112.
While Morikawa is playing well after winning at Pebble Beach, Knapp showed the ability to go low in Round 2. He opened with a disappointing 73 in Round 1 while playing in the weather, but he lit up the course in Round 2, carding a six-under 65. He started his Round 2 with an eagle and added six more birdies along with a pair of bogeys.
He had a few more close calls and seemed close to going even lower if the conditions remain similar on Saturday.
Morikawa has been steadier with a 68-69 start to the week. He played his closing nine in Round 2 at just even par and starts the day at -5, one stroke ahead of Knapp and one group later off the tee. Knapp will tee off with Sepp Straka, while Morikawa will play alongside Jhonattan Vegas. This prop is just for the round score, and since his second round looked better, I think Knapp will continue to trend in the right direction in Round 3.
Jordan Spieth/Max Homa Total Number of Birdies or Better Round 3 O9.5 (+102)
One of the most exciting groups to watch on Saturday will be Jordan Spieth and Max Homa, who tee off together at 1:30 p.m. ET. The two proven PGA TOUR winners have had their recent struggles over the last few years, but they’re having good weeks at The Riv.
For this prop, we don’t have to worry about either one of them having big numbers on any holes or taking “creative” paths to the green. Ultimately, their final score for the round doesn’t even matter. All we’re doing is hunting birdies. The way this market is set up, you can be more or less aggressive very easily by picking your own over/under. For example, if you want to play it safer, you can take over 7.5 birdies for the pair at -290. If you want to be more aggressive, you could play the over 11.5 birdies at +280. I’m aiming right in the middle of those two numbers and getting +102 for at least 10 birdies from this twosome on Saturday.
Spieth starts the day at -5 and Homa at -6. In Round 1, Spieth had three birdies, while Homa only had two. Much of that round, though, was played in the rain when conditions were much tougher than the forecast calls for on Saturday.
In Round 2, Spieth had six birdies or better, and he would have been ahead of Homa coming into the day if he hadn’t lost a drive on the par-4 12th on his way to double-bogey. Homa didn’t have any double-bogeys on his card but he did have two bogeys. More relevant to this prop, though, the former champion at this course drilled seven birdies or better.
With both playing well, this pair combined for 13 birdies in Round 2, and I think they’ll get to double-digit birdies again this Saturday. Picking a prop like this is a great way to focus on a fun group before the leaders get started just a little bit later in the day.