Shares of Northland Power (NPI.TO) gained over eight per cent on Thursday. The Canadian independent power producer is calling for an “inflection point in electricity markets” to deliver more profit in 2026 than analysts expected.
Northland’s global portfolio of energy assets spans offshore and onshore wind, solar, battery, and natural gas, as well as a regulated utility in Colombia.
The Toronto-based company reported financial results after Wednesday’s closing bell, booking higher revenue thanks to record offshore wind generation in Germany, and the start-up of a new lithium-ion battery energy storage facility in Ontario.
Looking ahead, Northland surprised analysts with higher-than-expected profit guidance for 2026, calling for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion.
“We’re at an inflection point in electricity markets. After decades of flat electricity demand, we’re entering a period of rising demand that some call a power super cycle. It’s driven by electrification, industrial growth, population growth, urbanization and a rise in AI demand,” CEO Christine Healy told analysts on a conference call Thursday morning.
“As power generators, our strategy plans to capture this momentum and double our gross operating capacity to seven gigawatts by 2030.”
Northland’s five-year plan calls for between $5.8 billion and $6.6 billion in total gross investment.
In respective notes to clients on Thursday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Nelson Ng and TD Cowen analyst Sean Steuart noted Northland’s 2026 profit estimate topped their forecasts.
“We believe the shares of NPI will trade higher on the back of stronger-than-expected Q4/25 Adjusted EBITDA, and 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance,” Ng wrote on Wednesday.
On Thursday, Toronto-listed shares closed 8.34 per cent higher at $21.69 apiece. In November, the company’s stock plunged after management announced a 40 per cent dividend cut, along with a steep writedown on a wind farm in the North Sea.
Healy says Northland will focus its investments on the Canadian and European markets, with the former focused on natural gas, and the latter on wind.
“We see an opportunity-rich environment,” she said. “We’re very focused on deepening where we are instead of spreading out into new locations.”
Healy insists Northland’s investment plans in any given jurisdiction will be rigorously weighed against opportunities elsewhere.
“Canada continues to be a growth market for us, with every province forecasting power demand growth. We see opportunities in several of our technologies, including gas-fired generation and battery storage,” she said.