The only WNBA contest on the Wednesday, August 6 slate is a big one for the playoff race, as the seventh-place Las Vegas Aces take on the eighth-place Golden State Valkyries at 10 p.m. ET on NBA TV. The Aces (15-14) are up half a game on the Valkyries (14-14), thanks to Las Vegas cruising to a 101-77 victory over Golden State in their last game on Sunday. Now the Valkyries have the chance to even up this season series at two games apiece on their home floor.
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Today’s WNBA pick:Valkyries +5.5 -105 (1 unit, DK)Jackie Young Over 4.5 assists -140 (1 unit, DK)Valkyries +5.5
Do you know the last time the Valkyries lost a home game by over one possession? That would be June 1—when they lost by 11 to the currently 25-5 Minnesota Lynx. Golden State has a legitimate home-court advantage, as the team has been dominant against the spread there despite major roster turnover throughout the season.
The Valkyries and Aces played each other last game, where the Aces won a 101-77 laugher in Las Vegas. But the spot was absolutely dreadful for the Valkyries, as it was their third road game in four days and their fifth road game in eight days. They finally return back home for the first time since July 25 and get two days of rest in the process.
The Aces clearly have more talent, but no one has done more with less than first-year Valkyries head coach (and Coach of the Year frontrunner) Natalie Nakase. The Aces made 18 of their 40 3-point attempts last game (45%)—a fluky shooting performance considering they’re ninth in 3-pont shooting percentage (32.9%) on the season. I think you’ll see Las Vegas’ outside shooting crash back down to Earth in a tough road atmosphere.
Jackie Young Over 4.5 assists
This is a pretty heavy price to lay on a player prop, but I think it’s worth it in this case. Ever since Jewell Loyd was moved from the starting lineup to the bench four games ago, Young’s assist rate has skyrocketed.
In those four games, she’s had her three best assist outputs this season—10, 8 and 8. In the fourth game, she finished with three assists but only played 19 minutes in the game (and sat out the final 15 minutes with the Aces’ other top starters) since the Aces were trailing by 30+ points to the Minnesota Lynx.
Young’s assists prop has stayed put at 4.5 for the fifth straight game, and while the juice has gone up, I don’t think it’s been a big enough adjustment. As long as it’s still 4.5, this seems like a prop to continue to attack.