The Edmonton Oilers have fewer than 20 games left on the schedule, and anything is possible. The club is in third place in the Pacific Division, just one hot streak away from landing in first place. On the other hand, missing the playoffs completely has entered the chat after a miserable February.

We’ve already discussed what might happen if the team missed the postseason. When owner Daryl Katz hired Stan Bowman as general manager, it was a certainty that tough decisions would have to be made. The no-movement clauses, the aging roster and an inability to find anything close to average goaltending have hampered the team’s ability to address areas of weakness. No matter what happens in March, whether the Oilers make the playoffs or miss, this offseason must be one of change in Edmonton.

The big item

In the summer of 2015, the Oilers held the annual orientation camp for new draft picks at the old arena. Connor McDavid had just been drafted No. 1 and was the feature player for fans and media to observe. The organization took an unusual step that summer, and decided to invite both the 2014 first-round pick (Leon Draisaitl) and the 2013 first-round selection (Darnell Nurse).

Oilers management viewed McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse as the foundation for the future, and it turned out just that way. All three men emerged as leaders on the team and have enjoyed regular-season and playoff success. The Oilers have made the postseason for the last five years and have gone to the Stanley Cup Final in the last two seasons.

In the last three seasons, things have changed. The foundation of the team, increasingly, is McDavid, Draisaitl and impact defenceman Evan Bouchard. Since 2023-24, Bouchard has played in 273 games (including playoffs) and delivered 276 points. What’s more, his five-on-five outscoring is phenomenal. In those 273 games, Edmonton has scored 287 goals and allowed 214 goals when he’s on the ice. That’s a 57 percent goal share. Bouchard won’t win the Norris Trophy this year, but he’s earned the recognition.

The changing of the guard on defence has coincided with a rising pressure on the salary cap. During Ken Holland’s time as general manager, and continuing with Bowman, the team has agreed to an abundance of deals with players that include some form of trade protection. The club got caught in that vortex last week at the trade deadline, and will again next spring unless Bowman can find a way out.

The big ask

Nurse, whose annual cap hit is $9.25 million, remains a feature player on the team but does not bring value to the roster commensurate with the contract. This summer, Bowman and the Oilers would be wise to approach Nurse in hopes the defender waives his no-movement clause as the organization attempts to retool on the fly. Nurse’s contract eases in the summer of 2027, so the request this summer would be moving up the date by one year.

There’s no guarantee he will, but the organization is between a rock and a hard place due to the abundance of no-movement and no-trade contracts on the roster.

The cap issue

There’s sound reasoning behind the idea of asking Nurse to waive. His contract is the fourth largest on the team and brings less than the other major deals. Nurse still has value, which should allow the team to deal him and get something beyond cap relief in return.

How important is that relief? Here’s a quick look at the signed players for 2026-27 and the cap room:

Centres Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
Wingers Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie, Trent Frederic, Mattias Janmark
Defencemen Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman, Ty Emberson
Goaltender Tristan Jarry

PuckPedia has the Oilers cap for next season (including the 14 names listed here, plus buyouts and bonus overages) at just over $86 million. That means Edmonton will have $17.7 million in cap space heading into summer. The roster needs nine more players.

Roster signings and minor league recalls

Bowman procured some quality talent during the season, and there are some incumbent free agents who will need to be signed.

Restricted free agents who probably get a contract include defenceman Spencer Stastney and newly acquired energy winger Colton Dach. Both contracts combined should come in at less than $2.5 million.

There are also players who may graduate from the AHL Bakersfield Condors roster. Centre Josh Samanski and winger Ike Howard are strong candidates. Defenceman Atro Leppänen started his minor league season slowly, but earned a new contract and has a chance. If all three make the opening-night roster, that’s a trio of NHL players earning under $1 million (excluding bonuses).

The unrestricted group is led by right winger Kasperi Kapanen, centre/wingers Jack Roslovic and Curtis Lazar, goalie Connor Ingram and two new acquisitions (centre Jason Dickinson and defenceman Connor Murphy). Veteran Adam Henrique, also a free agent this summer, is unlikely to return.

There’s real talent in this group of unrestricted players, but there won’t be enough money to sign all of them. Adding in the recalls and RFA signings to the group already under contract, Bowman will have about $12 million in cap room to finish the roster. He would need a goalie, three forwards (including one or two centres) and a defenceman (depending on Leppänen).

Centres Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Josh Samanski
Wingers Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie, Trent Frederic, Mattias Janmark, Ike Howard, Colton Dach
Defencemen Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman, Ty Emberson, Spencer Stastney
Goaltender Tristan Jarry

This is where money gets tight, and difficult decisions need to be made. The priority among the unrestricted free agents should be Dickinson, Kapanen, Roslovic and Ingram. A guess would be $15 million in cap required to sign all four, meaning the Oilers can’t sign all of them. Additionally, Edmonton would need that final defenceman to be Leppänen or another player making the minimum.

It’s time to have the talk

Running the numbers, it has to be Nurse. Tristan Jarry has a cap hit of $5.375 million, Jake Walman is at $7 million next year, and Trent Frederic comes in at $3.85 million. Bowman could deal two of those players (all having some form of no-movement or no-trade) instead of Nurse, but trade value suggests Nurse is the obvious choice.

Dealing Nurse would put the cap situation back in balance. This is a player of quality who delivers a range of skills for his team. Last March, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman at The Athletic estimated Nurse’s value to be $7.1 million, representing about $2 million in overpay. NHL teams would consider Nurse a valuable acquisition if he delivers in that range for the balance of his contract.

For Bowman and the Oilers, the pretzeling around no-movement and no-trade clauses cost them at this year’s deadline. Edmonton must change the cap situation this summer, or face another deadline where management doesn’t have the room to make needed improvements.

No organization wants to move on from a key player. The contract and its language may force the issue this summer. The Oilers have a big problem with only one clear solution.