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The Greater Toronto Area should prepare for a dip in the price of gas come Thursday, says Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

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McTeague says U.S. President Donald Trump’s assurances on Monday night that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open for oil shipments is good news at the pumps.

The strait links the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is the only route to the open ocean for oil producers in the Gulf.

“President Trump’s comments (Monday night) guaranteeing passage in the Straight of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf and the coordinated move by various G7 and OECD countries to release oil,” McTeague said. “Oil’s in a historic drop and so is the price of gas come Thursday.”

McTeague said Tuesday’s gas price of $159.9 cents per litre will go to $160.0 cents per litre on Wednesday and then will drop as much as seven or eight cents per litre on Thursday, ranging from $152.0 cents per llitre to $154.0 cents per litre.

Average gas prices in Toronto. Average gas prices in Toronto. TORONTO SUN GRAPHIC

As for diesel, currently at $199.0 centres per litre, McTeague is expecting a 12 cents-per-litre drop on Thursday to $187.0 cents per litre.

“The market hasn’t closed yet but it’s pretty clear the speech by Trump (Monday) has soothed markets that they no longer think there’s going to be a serious disruption. So we start to see prices drop back down from where they were (Tuesday and Monday) and over the last week.”

Oil prices spiked after shipments through the strait were disrupted amid the Iran war.

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Also on Tuesday, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia has lowered oil ​output by between ‌2 million and 2.5 million ​barrels a day, ​and the United Arab Emirates has ​cut its output ​by 500,00-800,000 barrels a day according to Bloomberg News.

Kuwait has also cut output ‌by half a million barrels a day, and Iraq ​by ​about 2.9 million, the report ​added.

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The price per gallon of gas is shown on a sign as a customer gets fuel at a station on March 9, 2026, in Miami, Fla.

Oil prices soar with concerns spreading over global oil supply as Iran war drags on

Oil shocks in 2008, 2011 and again in 2022 all triggered noticeable increases in food prices months later.

CHARLEBOIS: When price of oil surges, grocery bills will follow

Oil output numbers were from last week: McTeague

“They all lowered (their output) last week because there was a risk of being attacked by Iranian drones and missiles and many were,” McTeague said.

“This is not numbers from today, this is numbers from the past week. Now there seems to be open passage. Trump has guaranteed that, militarily and insurance-wise, you’re going to start seeing vessels moving through there. That’s critical. Because it explains why oil markets — oil is down at 11 bucks a barrel — so down to $83. Remember we started this whole thing it was $67 bucks a barrel a week ago Friday,” he added. “It touched $94 (Monday) before Trump made his comments and that’s why it’s dialled back. So it’s on it’s way back down, as are gasoline prices. That was then. This is now. Everything changed (Monday) with Trump’s speech. Apparently markets are reassured. That’s why they’re dumping oil prices. It’s back to levels that I think people will find a little more comforting.”

Trump threatened to ramp up attacks

Trump threatened on Monday to increase attacks on Iran if it disrupts the flow of oil in the Hormuz Strait.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.

“I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply. And if Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much, much harder level.”

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