Canadian headline building intentions are still coming in strong, but details are less flattering. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data show building permit values climbed in January, but remain weaker than pre-2023 levels once inflation-adjusted. A non-residential surge was behind most of the improvement, but it was taxpayer-funded, cementing Canada’s dependence on borrowed growth.
Canadian Building Permits Masked By Inflation
Canadian building permits: Total value, nominal (current) and inflation-adjusted (constant, 2023).
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Building permit values climbed 4.8% to $13.3 billion in January, one of the highest levels on record in nominal terms. Only twice since 2020 have we seen higher numbers, but most of that growth is inflation.
In StatCan’s constant 2023 dollars, permits climbed 4.3% to $12.3 billion, up 0.8% from last year. This is weaker than pre-2023 levels, back when all that “red tape” supposedly kept builders back. And inflation isn’t even the worst part of this report.
Canadian Builders Shift To Single-Family Homes, Condo Glut Weighs
Residential building permits: total value by single- and multi-family segments, current dollars.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Residential building intentions are improving, but unevenly. Overall, permit values climbed 1.8% to $8.0 billion in January, but fell 9.4% from last year. Inflation-adjusted, the picture looks even weaker.
The real story is the condo oversupply. Single-family permit values climbed 8.9% to $2.71 billion in January, while multi-family permit values fell 1.5% to $5.3 billion. Developers are shifting to low-rise units to sidestep record unsold condo inventory.
Even with this pivot, the value of single-family building intentions remains half that of multi-family. The distortion has been largely due to incentives at various levels of government, from federally subsidized financing to municipal vacancy tax exemptions.
Canadian Non-Residential Building Is Increasingly Government
Non-residential building permits: total value for commercial, industrial, and institutional & government segments.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Non-residential permits climbed 9.4% to $5.4 billion in January, 34% higher than last year. This is where growth is happening, but composition matters.
Commercial permits fell 5.5% (-$128.6 million) to $2.2 billion, the lowest since June 2025. Ontario alone accounted for the national decline, dropping by $186 million.
Industrial surged 44.6% to $1.2 billion. StatCan notes the gain came from state-backed transportation terminals in Ontario and Quebec. Public transit stations, not private investment.
Institutional permits rose 13% to $2 billion, near record highs. A single project in Toronto represented over $800 million. Most of you figured out the pattern, but let’s spell it out since a 288% spike in coffee prices has left many undercaffeinated—it was government-funded, not market-driven.
The pattern is clear: Virtually all growth is taxpayer-funded. Public spending isn’t inherently bad, but it becomes a problem when it’s the only growth left. That problem grows even further when it supports a misallocation of capital, residential or non-residential.
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