Major banks are seeing the same pattern, with major banks expecting December‑quarter 2025 GDP growth of around 0.3%–0.4% and a second consecutive rise in per‑capita output, supported by strong exports, services, and tourism.
Households cautious but rate relief underpins gradual spending lift
Despite the brighter headline outlook, the consensus view on household spending has been revised lower for both 2026 and 2027.
NZIER notes that many households on one‑ or two‑year fixed mortgage rates are still expected to roll onto lower mortgage rates over the next couple of years, supporting a “continued recovery in household spending”, but warns this will be “gradual over the coming year, given the soft labour market is keeping households cautious.”
Consensus forecasts also show the residential investment outlook being revised higher for the March 2026 and 2027 years, in line with a pick‑up in dwelling consents and NZIER’s measure of architects’ workload, which points to “an increased pipeline of housing construction work in the next 12–24 months.” That should support credit demand from developers and property investors as the construction pipeline rebuilds.
Exports and inflation point to higher rates later
On the external side, forecast export growth has been revised higher for 2026 and 2027 as demand for commodity exports such as meat and dairy remains firm despite global trade uncertainty.