1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:31amBreaking: Reserve Bank hikes interest rate

The RBA has hiked its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.1% at its latest monetary policy board meeting.

Just nowTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:38amFuel companies warned against ‘misleading and deceptive conduct’

Fuel companies have been briefed on the impact that rapid price spikes and supply issues are having on consumers and businesses at an emergency meeting convened by the ACCC in Sydney and Melbourne today.

ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb warned how the ACCC was closely monitoring behaviour in the fuel market during the current Middle Eastern conflict.

It warned companies against collusive, anti-competitive or misleading or deceptive conduct.

The ACCC said the meeting was attended by senior representatives from major fuel companies, wholesalers and retailers.

They were asked to explain recent price increases that often moved more quickly than expected following spikes in international crude oil, and refined benchmark prices.

“In the meeting, we were given important information about the supply chain, the volatility in international pricing and impacts on the Asian region which we will closely scrutinise,” Ms Cass-Gottlieb said.

“If we find there is conduct that is collusive, for example any agreements to divide up or supply certain customers or set prices, or any other collusion in breach of competition laws, we will investigate it and take action.

Measures to address regional supply issues were also discussed.

The ACCC’s concerns were echoed by motoring organisations represented at the meeting.

On Friday, the ACCC will publish the next weekly update of the monitoring report of fuel prices in Australian capital cities, with the inclusion of prices in 190 regional locations.

1m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:37amBoard’s strategy has not changed: Bullock

Michele Bullock says the board “does not want to see a recession or a large rise in unemployment if we can avoid it”, noting its strategy around maintaining gains in employment hasn’t changed.

She says the risks have just tipped more towards needing to bring down inflation.

3m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:35amHow did the split decision play out?

Ms Bullock says all members agreed inflation was too high, despite the split vote on whether to hike or hold.

She says the split was around the timing — the members who voted to hold did so in a “hawkish sense”, still acknowledging the likelihood of needing another rate hike.

“The uncertainty was a big thing there,” the governor says.

The issue was around the timing not the direction, and “reasonable people can disagree” she says.

6m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:33amRobust conversation over past two days: Bullock

If the Middle East conflict isn’t resolved soon, higher fuel costs will push inflation here even higher, Michele Bullock says.

She described the conversation over the past two days as “robust”.

7m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:31amRBA governor speaking in Sydney

Michele Bullock is now speaking in Sydney.

She says increased fuel prices weren’t the reason for today’s hike and inflation was already running too hot.

9m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:29am

Will the government cut spending?

The treasurer has consistently attributed inflation figures to an increase in private demand rather than public spending.

Chalmers is asked if this rate hike and the uncertainty in the Middle East will change how the government is thinking about spending.

But he says the government is committed to its existing cost of living measures such as tax cuts and cheaper medicines.

“We’ve engineered a bit of a shift from those temporary cost of living measures to something more enduring and permanent,” he says.

Chalmers says the government is still looking to save cash via the budget.

“I meant it when I said there will be more savings in the budget in May,” he says.

9m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:29am

A view from the room

The room is filling up with press ahead of RBA governor Michele Bullock’s press conference, due in the next few minutes.

RBA press conference (ABC News: Michael Janda)

Snap courtesy of our business editor Michael Janda.

12m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:27amShadow treasurer says rate hike ‘devastating’

Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson is now speaking and called the rate rise a devastating blow for households.

14m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:25am’Inflation genie never got back in its bottle’: KPMG

The RBA’s lifting of the cash rate to 4.1% will hit mortgage holders hard and shows the inflation genie never quite got back in its bottle, according to KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne.

As expected, the RBA hiked its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points today at its latest monetary policy board meeting.

But Australia would be naïve to pin today’s rate rise solely on the Middle East conflict, Dr Rynne says.

“Even prior to this, the economy was vulnerable to another rate rise, with inflation projected to be above target for some time,” he said.

“Put simply, the inflation genie never quite got back in its bottle, and the RBA is now having another go.”

While the RBA has done better than other central banks in maintaining employment to keep GDP growth strong, it has come at the cost of properly taming inflation, Dr Rynne said.

“This has left Australians more exposed to the conflict in the Middle East because while central banks would usually ‘look through’ short-term supply-side price shocks, on the basis that they are likely to be short lived and self-correcting, this is more difficult to do when inflation is already too high.”

19m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:19am

War agitating existing issues with economy

Chalmers concedes that while the decision to raise the cash rate hasn’t come as a surprise, it doesn’t make it easier for the millions of mortgage holders around the country.

“This obviously is not the decision that lots of Australians were hoping for,” he says.

He says the Iran war is impacting existing inflation problems in the economy.

“The impacts of what we’re seeing in that part of the world are already substantial, but we don’t know yet how enduring those very substantial economic pressures will be. It depends very heavily on how long the conflict in the Middle East continues for,” he says.

21m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:17amAussie dollar still down on RBA close call

We’re now 45 minutes past the interest rate hike and the Australian dollar is remaining lower, currently around 70.6 US cents after slipping down towards 70.5 US.

Given it was a close call for the RBA board, at a 5-4 split in favour of the hike, the market seems to be winding back expectations of another hike in May being a sure bet.

AUD/USD (LSEG Refinitiv)31m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:08amMortgage repayment calculator

Today’s rate hike means if you’re on a variable-rate home loan, your minimum monthly repayments will increase, if and when your bank passes along the rate hike.

Use the repayments calculator with your home loan details to find out how much extra you could be paying each month.

34m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:05amIncreased penalties and surveillance on fuel prices: Chalmers

Jim Chalmers has turned to fuel prices, with the consumer regulator meeting with industry representatives today.

The treasurer says penalties and surveillance measures will be increased.

He says the ACCC has the power to act on dodgy behaviour in the market.

“Suppliers and retailers must not treat motorists as mugs.

“They are on notice.”

Chalmers says the ACCC “will throw the book at them” if they do the wrong thing.

37m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:01amThis will put additional pressure on people: Chalmers

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is speaking in Canberra.

He says at a time of uncertainty, the rate hike will put additional pressure on Australians.

39m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:00amCash rate back to 4.1% after two hikes in 2026

The 0.25 percentage point rate hike takes the cash rate to 4.1% — that’s back where it last sat between February and May 2025.

So in 2026, we’ve seen the RBA essentially undo two of the three rate cuts it delivered in 2025.

Business reporter Gareth Hutchens will be updating this story over the coming hours:

43m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:56amMiddle East conflict poses ‘risks in both directions’: RBA board

The RBA board’s post-meeting statement says the conflict in the Middle East “poses substantial risks in both directions”.

“A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices; this will push up near-term inflation and could also increase inflation further out if it impairs supply capacity or price rises get built into longer term inflation expectations.

“Higher prices and prolonged uncertainty may cause growth to be lower in Australia’s major trading partners and also in Australia.”

Questions about how the board is weighing up these risks to inflation and growth will no doubt be put to the RBA governor in less than 40 minutes’ time.

46m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:52amMarkets now pricing in just a 30% chance of a follow-up rate rise in May

Checking the latest futures pricing on Bloomberg, financial markets are now pricing in just a 30% chance of a follow-up rate hike at the next RBA meeting in May, after the two delivered today and last month.

That makes sense given how split the board was over today’s rate rise, with four out of nine members clearly wanting more time to assess the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict before lifting rates.

Clearly, markets believe other board members will join them at the May meeting in wanting to assess the economic data before hiking rates even higher.

The economists at Australia’s big four banks all forecast there will be a follow-up hike in May, although those predictions predated today’s meeting outcome.

But it’s not all good news for borrowers. Financial markets are still pricing in the likelihood of two more rate rises by early next year, which would take the cash rate to 4.6 per cent — slightly above its post-COVID high of 4.35 per cent.

56m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:43amHome loan borrowers facing higher repayments

If you’re on a variable mortgage and make the minimum monthly repayment, those are likely to rise after this afternoon’s rate hike.

We haven’t heard from lenders yet about passing on the hike but it’s fairly safe to assume they will.

Here are the numbers Canstar crunched on the impact of a March hike, as well as the cumulative impact of the past two meetings:

1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:37am

‘Material risk’ inflation will remain above target: RBA board

As expected, the Middle East war and the inflation fallout is top of the RBA board’s post-meeting statement:

“While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025.

“Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures.

“In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation.

“Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen.

“As a result, the Board judged that there is a material risk that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated.”