“Nonpermanent resident (NPR) net flow remained negative following caps on international students and temporary foreign workers, with a net outflow of 171,000 in the quarter,” Kavcic said, noting that the impact has been “cutting deeply in B.C. and Ontario, where the population has declined 0.7% in the past year.”
TD Economics previously highlighted how an immigration slowdown “cools Canada’s rental market” even as affordability remained strained. An RBC analysis, meanwhile, said new immigration rules were likely “to cool housing demand,” with fewer temporary residents expected to soften demand for rentals and entry-level homes, even as some were fast-tracked to permanent status.
Bank of Montreal (BMO) senior economist Sal Guatieri said during a conference this year that lower immigration “will be a bit of a dampener on consumer spending and, of course, the housing markets and rental markets for a little while.”
Mortgage demand to shift, not vanish
For lenders and brokers, the question is no longer whether population growth alone could carry origination volumes, but where future borrowers would come from and how sticky demand would prove in key regions.
Alberta still posted modest growth and continued to lead interprovincial inflows, even as Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia recorded net declines.