NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington odds, picks: Will increased horsepower shift the Goodyear 400 field?

The NASCAR Cup Series is at Darlington Raceway this week, and some big changes to the setup have drivers saying it’s going to be “the hardest track we run on” (more on this below!).

As always, we’re bothering our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, with all our questions about the upcoming race, how the changes will affect the field, and who they’re picking to win it.

The Goodyear 400 is at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, S.C., on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Watch it on FS1 or HBO Max.

Take it away, guys!

Race winner odds for NASCAR’s Goodyear 400

Car talk time! This is the first race using the new 750-horsepower package at an intermediate track. I have several questions about it, but let’s start with: Who does this favor? Could it change the usual favorites at Darlington?

Jeff: Not only is Darlington getting increased horsepower, but part of this “package” is using the aerodynamic pieces that would normally run on a short track. That means drivers will have WAY less downforce than they usually do, and this is what Chase Briscoe told me last week about it: “It’s going to be out of control. It’s going to be the hardest track we run on all year long. I’ve run the sim … you are crashing every corner, every lap.” Wow, right? Briscoe went on to say, “Literally the whole weekend is going to be a must-see, and one team is going to hit it right, and they are going to murder the field.”

So, of course, you’d like to know: Well, who? Clearly, the teams are going to be guessing quite a bit, and normally it’s one of the bigger organizations — Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske — who guesses correctly. But given what Briscoe said, there’s a chance a B-level team could nail the setup and figure out how to get around Darlington better than the rest. NASCAR is often at its best when the teams are faced with an unpredictable situation, and that feels like the setup for this weekend.

Jordan: Darlington is always a track where a surprise winner can emerge just for the fact that it is so demanding — hence its “Too Tough to Tame” nickname — and now with this new aero package, it could really throw a curveball at teams. If this ends up being an attrition-filled race like Briscoe and others have suggested, the opportunity may present itself for victory lane to be occupied by an unfamiliar face. Either way, Sunday is expected to be eventful, which means it should be entertaining to watch unfold.

How do you expect tire management to go with this change? How risky do you expect drivers to be?

Jeff: They’re all going to be trying to get their cars as tight as possible, but there are only so many things teams can do to tighten the cars up. That means, to avoid abusing the tires, drivers will need to manage their equipment as much as possible. I always tend to go with the veterans who have more experience doing that: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Michael McDowell, etc. A younger driver might opt for speed and then find he’s burned up his tires too quickly and fade late in a run.

Jordan: Veteran knowledge always provides an advantage, but especially so at Darlington and especially this weekend with this aero and rules package. Managing tires is going to be imperative, and those who do so the best will leave Darlington with a good finish. And those who don’t are likely in for a very long 400 miles.

Over at F1, there are changes, too, with their new cars focused on battery/power management, which has led to drivers feathering the throttle on straights, but allowed for more passing moves. How do you feel about this, and how do you think NASCAR has managed the entertainment vs. speed balance? What is the perspective in the NASCAR world about F1’s changes?

Jeff: What’s happening in F1 resonates with a lot of NASCAR fans who felt stock car racing became too “gimmicky” over the last couple of decades. And particularly in F1, it’s not going to go over well. F1 is supposed to be the pinnacle of motorsport, where purity supersedes everything. To have some of the best drivers in the world angry about gimmicky racing is going to land with F1 fans who were around before the “Drive to Survive” casuals joined in. The latter group might be more interested in entertainment, but it comes at a cost. NASCAR has learned that the hard way, with format changes, playoffs and the like, and now officials have been trying to undo some of the damage. Motorsport is always going to have inherently “boring” stretches, but that must be accepted rather than manipulated in the name of a constant show.

Jordan: You know that meme where the two Spidermen are pointing at each other, yeah, just insert that here. Because it’s a perfect encapsulation of what many NASCAR fans feel when they see F1 fans raise their collective pitchforks over seeing the form of racing they love undergo a dramatic transformation that they didn’t want, but the powers-that-be insist on enacting.

Who is your favorite to win at Darlington? 

Jeff: The winner of this race will have exceptional car control and understand how to get around Darlington without taking himself out or wearing his tires too quickly. While it would be easy to pick Denny Hamlin here, and I understand why he’s the favorite at one of his best tracks, I’ll go with Tyler Reddick. This might drive like a dirt race, giving Reddick, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell a chance to shine as their cars are on the verge of wrecking. Reddick has five top-fives in eight Next-Gen races at Darlington and, although he hasn’t won, has led 320 laps in those races. He finished fourth and second, respectively, at Darlington last year.

Jordan: Ryan Blaney is one of the best, if not the best, at managing his tires and maintaining speed over long green-flag runs. This skill set is tailor-made for Darlington, and it’s why he would’ve won this race a year ago had it not been for a sequence of untimely cautions. The Team Penske driver may not lead the most laps Sunday, but he should factor into the outcome. Earning his second win in three weeks is very much on the table.

Who is a long shot you like?

Jeff: Happy Erik Jones Week! If you’re sleeping on Erik Jones (+5000), wake up. Look, will he win the race? Probably not. But at least look at him for a top-10 finish. Jones has won twice at Darlington — including once in the Next Gen car — and has nine top-10s in 16 career starts there. He was third in the Southern 500 last September for a Legacy Motor Club team that only had a combined three top-fives on non-superspeedways all season — and two of them were in the Southern 500 (teammate John Hunter Nemechek finished fourth). We don’t know how Legacy will run this time, but keep those drivers in mind for sure.

Jordan: Jones is the obvious, obvious pick. But if you want a different name to consider outside of the Legacy driver and his teammate, then Brad Keselowski is just sitting there at +3000 on some boards. That is way too high a number for someone who won this race two years ago, has superb race craft — including how to manage his tires and equipment — and is with a team, RFK Racing, that showed surprising speed last week at Las Vegas. Add this all up, and there is no reason to think Keselowski can’t win Sunday.