Welcome to another jam packed Tuesday featuring 15 games (after a busy Sunday) which compressed my schedule enough that you’re not getting a standard betting report. There are still the customary week summary stat graphics, but I’m not writing about them or breaking down my best or worst teams (Carolina-Buffalo were my best, Islanders-Predators my worst), but you can figure out how from the images. This was a good week for my betting models, and I turned a profit on all picks combined, even over/under and red lights. We have some traffic light stats to help with tomorrow, and Chat GPT’s net contribution to ML-PL was negative, but offset by over/under.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

I spent an hour trying to get GPT to make a fancier version of this, but it crapped out, so I settled on this.

There is no paywall on this post, so everyone can see my write-ups and pick graphics. As you can see by the GPT stats above, we didn’t get a net benefit on moneyline-puckline last week but it was pretty good changing my over/under order. I have a new idea for bet ranking threads that I’m planning to start tomorrow. If you scroll up a few images, you can see traffic light stats, and GPT’s accuracy at promotion-demotion.

Let’s start by saying I really want Toronto to win this game to help Detroit’s playoff push. I’m very biased and you deserve to know. That said, Boston won 9 of their last 10 home games, Toronto lost 7 of their last 10 road games, so fair Bruins line is -400. That’s why the profit scores all lean strongly home team, my confidence modelling gave Bruins ML 76%, but I manually adjusted that to 60% because trusting my judgement here is a slippery slope (GPT demoted to yellow, first time that happened). Do I want something to feel good about if something bad happens to Detroit playoff probability and that’s why I’m taking Boston ML? You decide. Under 6.5 nearly received a yellow light, but get red for Leafs goaltending issues, Korpisalo also due for a start, but they may roll Swayman to keep pace in the race.

You can’t trust my opinion on this game. 1) I’m extremely biased on the outcome and was convinced in December Detroit would hit an iceberg in March. 2) Ottawa is on a back-to-back and that’s suddenly my kryptonite. Ottawa won 6 of their last 10 road games, Detroit lost 6 of their last 10 home games. My models only like Detroit because they love every back-to-back, but taking a giant loss on those this season. I’m performing brutally HML with these teams last 30 days (mostly from betting Ottawa opponents, I’ve been shorting Wings for a few weeks now). I’m taking Sens moneyline, with a red light stay away. I do like under 6.5 goals.

Seattle lost 7 of their last 9 games, Florida lost 6 of their last 10, but somebody needs to win this mess. Looking at the model results, profit scores, fair lines, Florida moneyline looks really strong. The problem is they have 8 guys listed as OUT-DTD-IR-SUS. Their first round pick is top 10 protected so they might just close out the schedule with their AHL team and that’s not a deep system. I’m taking Florida ML but low confidence because of the injuries. I will grant yellow light to over 5.5 goals, which had strong signals. If the Panthers win the draft lottery, that would be horrific.

Montreal won 6 of their last 10 home games, Carolina won 6 of their last 10 road games, so I’m not interested in Canes -135 when that line should be +100. On the other hand, I REALLY want Canes to win this game, so my overwhelming bias demands a red light stay away. That said, the fair line estimator supports Montreal, I’m going a good job HML with these teams last 30 days, and my betting models (who had a strong week 21) love Canadiens. My own confidence modelling gave MTL ML the green light, so proceed at your discretion. I’m giving over 6.5 the yellow light. That actually passed my confidence testing which is very punitive on 6.5 totals.

We have another personal bias alert here, but first let’s look at some fact; Isles won 7 of their last 10 home games, Chicago lost 7 of their last 10 road games. The fair line on New York ML is -233 and that’s supported by my models. That said, this automatically gets a double red light, and not because of my strong desire for Isles to lose, but because these teams rank #30 and #32 in my profit ranks last 30 days. Over/under is a HARD pass, yes, in all caps. I’m taking Isles ML, but you should be very skeptical of my judgement with these teams.

Flyers won 8 of their last 11 games, but 7 of those were on the road (note to self: Flyers won 7-straight road games) and this game is in Philly where they lost 7 of 10. I’m not sure that nullifies their hot streak, but Columbus won 7 of their last 10 road games, so their fair CBJ ML is -233, not -125. That’s also supported by my betting models and I’m doing well on that bet last days, so I’m taking VML. Despite those positive signals, this is getting a red light because I really want the Flyers to win and they’re hot, even if those were road wins. Over/under also gets a red light for mixed signals and bad performance with these teams at this total last 30 days.

Colorado won 8 of their last 10 road games, Pittsburgh won 6 of their last 10 home games and yesterday failed to cover +1.5 for the 3rd time in the last 10 games overall. Given the choice between Avalanche -150 or Penguins +1.5 at -198, I landed on Avs ML. My models were divided, and I’m taking a loss on VMLs with these teams last 30 days (taking a bigger loss HML), so this only gets a yellow light. Over/under had conflicting signals and gets a red light, despite me doing a good job with these teams at 6.5 totals last 30 days.

Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games, Wild won 7 of 10 road games, Lightning 7 of 10 home games, so I’m not paying -180 for Tampa moneyline. Wild moneyline is the best value, it’s the preferred choice of my betting models, so my pick too, even earning a yellow light by my unbiased confidence modelling. Over 6.5 was a different matter, that failed miserably. Stay away from that one.

The New Jersey Devils are heating up, winning 7 of their last 10 games, covering +1.5 goals 9 times. Dallas is also hot, winning 7 of their last 10 at home but only covered -1.5 goals twice. I’m not interested in paying -175 for Dallas, so the decision is between Devils ML or PL. Models like New Jersey moneyline, I’m just performing much better HML with these teams last 30 days (aside from (but including) their home loss vs Vegas yesterday). I’ll take NJD +1.5 at -170 and give it a 44% confidence score, just short of a yellow light. There were positive signals on over 5.5, aside from I just had a terrible week on 5.5 totals and confidence modelling wanted to score a 31%. I manually boosted to 43%. A red light, but yellow was considered.

Sharks lost 4-straight and 7 of their last 9, Predators won 4-straight and 6 of their last 10, allowing 3 goals or less in 9 of their last 10. Preds moneyline was an easy pick, but lacked model support, disqualifying a green light (confidence modeling gave it a 60%, I lowered it to 53%). There were strong signals on under 6.5 goals, but also lacked model support, so earned a red light.

Washington lost 6 of their last 10 games, St. Louis won 7 of their last 10 but rank #31 in my profit ranks last 30 days. Thankfully, 120% of that Blues loss came picking their opponents and overs, neither of which I’m doing here. Blues had model support, good profit scores, and fair line value. I’m just not green light confident betting against Washington (but doing well betting them to lose on the road lately). Under 5.5 received a red light, but did have some positive signals, just lacking model support.

Vegas lost 7 of their last 10 road games, but beating opponents 149 to 98 in high danger chances. They are winning even strength expected goals 29-20, but losing 19-24 on the real scoreboard in those minutes. Not sure Hellebuyck is the goalie when you start converting those high-danger looks, but Jets could be the team Vegas goalies finally produce sufficient stops to win. Jets are 5-5 in their last 10 home games, so I don’t really trust either side. I’m just putting a minimum bet on the home dog +1.5 goals, but low confidence and a red light (my confidence modelling wanted score it 62%, but I bumped it down to 43%). Under 5.5 gets a red light, because that’s been a better bet with these teams last 30 days, but my best models are all going under.

The Calgary Flames won 3-straight and 6 of their last 10 home games (despite trading their best 2 defensemen), while Kings lost 3-straight and 6 of their last 10 road games. Flames fair ML is -150 and I’m getting +120, also the preferred bet of my best models at home dogs, though I’m posting a small loss HML with these teams last 30 days, so I’ll give it a yellow light. Kings are crapping out of the playoff race with Nashville winning 4-straight. I almost liked over 5.5 goals until seeing my result with these teams last 30 days, earning a red light.

Just saw a news headline that McDavid left practice with trainers, which would be a devastating blow with Draisaitl out, but also entirely possible he’ll be fine. It at least murders my temptation to pick Edmonton in Utah tomorrow. That said, the information is already priced into the line and if McDavid is confirmed, it will move in the Oilers direction. The best news here is that my fantasy team has a bye, so it makes no difference to me if Ingram or Vejmelka start, meaning my bias is zero. Problem is, my models are divided and I’m doing a bad job HML with these teams last 30 days. Fair line estimator also says the Mammoth ML is overpriced despite the McDavid news, and that won’t get better if McJesus plays. I’m taking Utah moneyline but need to give this a red light. This also limited my confidence in over 6.5 goals, but that also gives me a hedge against McDavid playing, still a red light though.

UPDATE: Reports now saying McDavid is “fine”.

Anaheim won 6 of their last 10 road games, Vancouver lost 8 of 10 home games, so fair Ducks ML is -233 and I’m getting -180. Ducks only covered -1.5 goals in 3 of their last 14 overall, so I’m not tempted to tail my models on the Anaheim puckline, but will comfortably take moneyline and flash the green light. Over/under also had positive signals, but fell just short of a yellow light in my confidence modelling, which is very punitive on 6.5 totals.

Good luck!