Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Dollarama Inc.’s (DOL-T) nearly 10 per cent share price decline on Tuesday in the wake of fourth quarter earnings was “overdone”, said Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li, who said his long-term positive thesis remains intact.
Mr. Li was one of several analysts cutting his price target on Dollarama even as he was still recommending the stock as a buy. Investors punished the stock largely because of softer-than-expected fourth quarter same-store sales growth and heavier-than-expected losses in Australia. Yet analysts were largely willing to overlook those negatives to focus on what lies ahead.
“DOL reiterated that the 1.6% traffic decline reflected unfavourable weather rather than intensifying competition. Since the beginning of FY27, traffic has recovered as weather has normalized. Excluding calendar shifts and estimated weather effects, we estimate 4Q same-store sales growth [SSSG] at ~4% (at the high end of DOL’s long-term target). We believe 1Q-to-date SSSG is tracking above management’s 3–4% annual guide, supported by price increases in consumables in late FY26,” Mr. Li said in a note to clients.
“Investors were also focused on heavier losses expected for Australia in FY27 as DOL enters the first full year of its multi-year transformation. We have increased our loss estimate to ~C$70m from C$24m. This includes A$35–45m of incremental integration expenses, with the remainder from lost sales due to the transition to lower-priced Dollarama items, store openings and reno costs etc. It is too early to know if FY27 is the peak year for losses for Australia. It will depend on how well consumers perceive the Dollarama products. Management’s confidence rests on the fact the products will offer the same compelling value proposition as Canada,” he added.
Mr. Li cut his price target to C$205 from C$218 to reflect a more conservative near-term outlook, though that still leaves considerable upside for the next 12 months.
National Bank analyst Vishal Shreedhar cut his price target to C$198 from C$225 and reiterated an “outperform” rating, calling the fourth quarter results “satisfactory”.
“Estimated fiscal 2027 Australia integration costs are higher than expected; however, we expect DOL to improve the business over time (DOL has demonstrated success in international markets including Colombia, Peru, etc.),” Mr. Shreedhar said.
Overall, he said he holds “a positive view on DOL reflecting a stable, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance.”
Canaccord Genuity analyst Luke Hannan cut his price target to C$187 from C$207 and reiterated a “hold” rating, suggesting that Dollarama is laying the groundwork for global growth and that may take a while to play out. He noted management said there has been no change in consumer sentiment and spending behaviour.
“As we expected, fiscal 2027 appears to be more of an investment year for both the Mexico and Australia businesses which, coupled with incremental margin headwinds from higher oil prices weighing on freight costs, suggest consolidated earnings growth in the year ahead could be tempered relative to the ~20% compounded annual growth rate DOL has delivered over the last five years,” Mr. Hannan said.
“On the one hand, DOL’s same-store sales growth guidance for F2027 of 3-4% YoY is consistent with where the company initiated guidance for F2026, where it ended up delivering 4.2% YoY SSSG for the year; in other words, there’s likely an element of conservatism here, particularly in light of the softer macro backdrop. That said, even if one assumes outperformance versus Canadian segment guidance during fiscal 2027, we believe EPS growth for the year will be slower than in recent history. Make no mistake, we believe DOL is in the midst of creating a more balanced global platform, essentially laying the groundwork for growth to reaccelerate in F2028 and beyond. With that said, we expect the shares to remain rangebound until visibility on this reacceleration improves,” he said.
Meanwhile, CIBC upgraded the retailer to “outperformer” from “neutral,” while reducing its target price to C$202 from C$212.
“In some ways investors will need to adjust to more complicated results from DOL, which has always been the peak of simplicity. However, this complexity is mitigated by structure, accompanied by strong growth potential and, most importantly, driven by the components, not the operations. DOL’s valuation is obscured by losses in Mexico and Australia but we have conviction in these turning positive in time. The implied P/E for Canada of 23x is attractive,” said CIBC analyst Mark Petrie.
Elsewhere, BMO cut its price target to C$210 from C$222. Scotia cut its price target to C$200 from C$220. TD Cowen cut its target to C$225 from C$235. Wells Fargo cut its target to C$185 from C$195.
And Stifel cut its price target to C$180 from C$200 while reiterating a “hold” rating. “Dollarama’s shares are fully valued in our view, trading at 29x forward earnings, one turn higher than its 5-year average,” said Stifel analyst Martin Landry.
RBC analyst Darko Mihelic has cut his price targets on all the major Canadian banks he covers, concerned with current valuation levels relative to historic norms.
“The Canadian bank index is trading above historical averages, and near the 2006 peak on a forward P/E basis,” Mr. Mihelic said in a note to clients. “We believe it is possible one could justify the high valuations today through solid fundamentals of our covered large Canadian banks, with rising core ROEs [Return on Equities] and core EPS growth & higher targets, and stable provisions for credit losses (PCLs). We nevertheless lower our target forward P/E multiples by 1.0x and reduce our price targets for all the large Canadian banks we cover after a careful review of prior peak valuation levels.”
The Canadian bank index is trading at a forward P/E of 13.0x, above the historical average of 10.8x and near the 2006 peak of 14.0x, he noted. The Canadian bank index is trading at 1.99x on a price to book basis, above the historical average of 1.79x.
“We still see potential upside (but more modest upside) to current stock prices. In our view, 2003-2006 (followed by 1995-1997) may be the most comparable historical periods versus today, with high bank valuations but strong fundamentals. Valuations declined in 1998 due to volatile markets (rising provisions for credit losses, Asian financial crisis, etc.) and in 2009 due to the GFC. In our view, the main esoteric risk we can identify today is private credit and we note our current estimates include assumptions with possible downside risks (USMCA, geopolitical and interest rate stability, credit quality, etc.),” he said.
His price target on Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) was dropped to C$205 from C$219, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) went to C$147 from C$158, National Bank of Canada (NA-T) went to C$180 from C$193, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) to C$98 from C$106, and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) to C$138 from C$148. He rates Bank of Montreal, National Bank, and Bank of Nova Scotia as “sector perform”. CIBC and TD have “outperform” ratings.
“Our median forward P/E target multiple is 14.0x for the large Canadian banks we cover, as we expect improvements in core ROE and core EPS growth in 2026 and 2027,” Mr. Mihelic said. “Core EPS growth is a significant factor in our valuation – our PTs imply a median P/E of 12.7x our 2027 core EPS estimates. We note our estimates include several assumptions with downside risks including: 1) a favourable CUSMA/USMCA outcome, 2) stabilizing geopolitical risks (we assume higher oil prices are not prolonged), 3) no shifts to a higher interest rate environment (possibly impacting loan growth), 4) benign credit quality, and 5) no impacts on capital markets or wealth businesses from potential broader economic weakness.”
Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen downgraded Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” while making a big cut to his price target – to C$30 from C$52.
The move came after a surprisingly weak fourth quarter report and a lacklustre outlook, alongside major restructuring plans.
“While we acknowledge this likely represents a ‘kitchen sink’ quarter in concert with management’s new restructuring plan, our faith in the company’s outlook has again been materially eroded with this latest print,” Mr. Hansen said.
“Despite modest revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA plummeted 38% y/y to $48.3 mln, led by headwinds in both Farm (-39% y/y, Canada) & Commercial (-39% y/y, Brazil, North America). Consolidated EBTIDA margin collapsed 830 bps y/y to 12.2% (vs. Raymond James estimates: 18.0%),” Mr. Hansen said.
Meanwhile, fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin only came in at 14.4%, well below the company’s original 17-19% guidance – which was eventually pulled.
“AGI’s order book declined -26% y/y to $543 mln (-19% q/q), reflecting significant deliveries and softer Commercial order intake in the period,” Mr. Hansen noted. “Looking forward, management expects Commercial order book headwinds to persist near-term as AGI undergoes a ‘change in approach’ to assessing future opportunities.”
Ag Growth revealed a major restructuring plan in tandem with the earnings, which included a major reduction in its executive leadership team, consolidating leadership functions back to Winnipeg, suspension of the quarterly dividend, and possible non-core asset sales, the analyst noted.
ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Tim Monachello maintained an “outperform” rating and C$36 price target while he evaluates the company’s outlook further and how it may impact his estimates.
“We view AFN’s restructuring initiatives as a longer-term positive, as they are expected to accelerate deleveraging and target improved free cash flow conversion and returns. That said, we believe acute margin pressures and a weaker outlook across AFN’s Commercial segment are incremental negatives that are likely to pressure consensus estimates and AFN shares over the near-to medium-term,” Mr. Monachello said.
Shares opened down 40 per cent in Toronto.
Scotiabank analyst Mario Saric cut his price target on Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-N) to US$56 from US$64, while reiterating a “sector outperform” rating. His target on Brookfield Corp. (BN-N) was similarly dropped to US$48.50 from US$52.
The lower price target was primarily because of a drop in the fee related earnings multiple he uses, amid a higher assumption for interest rates.
He thinks the recent selloff in shares is overdone amid a broader selloff in asset managers because of software, AI and private credit concerns.
Mr. Saric thinks now could be a good entry point into Brookfield and he listed four positives in a note to clients:
“BAM seems to have the lowest Software & Credit exposure amongst peers, at ~1% and ~30% (of total assets under management), something investors have recognized;BAM’s 18% YTD sell-off feels overdone (esp. with our AI view and = a strong entry point, although its 12% avg. peer outperformance may have some seeking torque elsewhere;Not all credit is created equal. We think BAM has limited exposure to bigger areas of concern. We est. direct lending = ~2% of Total AUM, below most peers;Most of BAM credit = Liquid/Real Asset/Investment Grade.”
Shares in goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) appear oversold, said Scotia analyst Phil Hardie. While cutting his price target to C$61 from C$68, he reiterated a “sector outperform” rating.
goeasy on Tuesday announced amended financing deals with its lenders which are expected to help stabilize its funding base and allow it to remain compliant with covenants despite significant charges and write-downs expected in the fourth quarter of last year.
“We had expected to see syndicate lenders revise covenants but still view the announcement as a positive for the stock given that it 1) removes an immediate default overhand and reduces liquidity tail risks and 2) provides more breathing room for the company to organically de-lever,” said Mr. Hardie in a note. “That said, in several cases the size of the lending facilities has been reduced, and subject to a 100 basis point increase in lending spreads.”
“We believe the stock remains out of favour and will see further shareholder rotation and volatility, however, it appears oversold given it trades at just ~0.65x our Q4/25E BVPS [book value per share]. We expect 2026 to be transitional year, as the company incurs an elevated charge-off rate and declining loan balances, but we expect improvements in 2027 with return on equity moving to the mid-teen range,” he added.
ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst David McFadgen cut his price target on MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) to C$46 from C$51 after NASA announced it is going to pause the Artemis Gateway, the lunar space station, and focus its resources on the moon. MDA was contracted by the Canadian Space Agency to build Canadarm-3 for the Artemis Gateway, a contract worth $1 billion.
“We are revising our forecasts and stripping out Canadarm-3 from our forecasts in 2027 and beyond,” said Mr. McFadgen, who continues to rate the stock “outperform”.
“We believe that MDA is a catalyst-rich story with many potential large contract wins likely,” he said.
TD Cowen analyst Tim James raised his price target on AirBoss of America Corp. (BOS-T) to C$8 from C$6.50, “based on shifting forward valuation period by one quarter to Q1/27-Q4/27, slightly higher forecasts (carry forward of Q4/25 impacts and updated FX, rubber, and other assumptions) and lower forecast net debt.”
His rating remains a “buy”.
He commented: “We remain bullish on AirBoss given deleveraging, increasingly stable earnings, reasonable valuation, and defense backdrop. Mixing volume expected to grow in 2026 for first time since 2022, though uncertainty around timing remains. Both anti-vibration and defense should drive AMP segment growth in 2026 with defense orders a potential catalyst through balance of year.”
National Bank analyst Baltej Sidhu initiated coverage on Anaergia Inc. (ANRG-T) with an “outperform” rating and a C$5 price target.
Anaergia is an integrated waste-to-value platform converting landfill-diverted organic waste into renewable natural gas, electricity, clean water and fertilizer. Its end-to-end model spans proprietary technology, project delivery, long-term services and selective project ownership, enabling efficient execution across the value chain.
“With a capital-light strategy, expanding recurring revenue base and exposure to policy-driven end markets, we see Anaergia as transitioning toward a more scalable, higher-quality earnings model with improving returns,” Mr. Sidhu said in a note to clients.
He said his “outperform” rating is based on these considerations:
“• Policy-driven demand is converting waste diversion and energy security priorities into non discretionary infrastructure investment, supporting long-term growth visibility.
• A capital-light model is improving earnings quality, accelerating cash conversion and reducing balance sheet risk through earlier monetization and recurring service revenue.
• A differentiated, integrated platform with 300+ patents supports strong win rates (~99%) and creates durable competitive advantages.
• Margin expansion is emerging, driven by a higher mix of recurring revenue and operating leverage as the business scales. • A rapidly growing backlog and deposit-backed pipeline provide a clear line of sight to multi year revenue growth.
• Reset leadership and aligned ownership are driving improved execution, with early results supporting a credible turnaround.”