Years from now, Edmonton Oilers forward Josh Samanski can describe his first NHL goal as a thing of beauty. End-to-end rush, fabulous deke on the goaltender, drilling it home with the net bulging as instant proof. In truth, his first NHL goal was among the least probable tallies in recent memory, but it counted and came against a legendary goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Samanski is establishing himself as a legit two-way forward, with emphasis on strong play at centre. For an organization badly in need of difference-makers who can outscore opponents at five-on-five while playing on value deals, Samanski is a gift from the hockey gods.

Beginnings

When the Oilers signed Samanski out of Germany’s top league (DEL), there was a ripple across the fan base, followed by long months of discussing his possible future. All agreed he would start the 2025-26 season in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors. He turned heads with the Oilers in five preseason games, scoring well at five-on-five and slotting in at centre. By the time Samanski was sent down to the Condors, there was a mild buzz about him.

In August, I predicted four players who either qualified as rookies or would make their NHL debut would play for Edmonton in 2025-26. Matt Savoie, Ike Howard, David Tomasek and Roby Jarventie all had a reasonable chance. All four have played in the NHL (Jarventie just recently) this season with Edmonton, but it is Samanski who has emerged as the biggest surprise.

My prediction for Savoie (73 games, 13-24-37, 0.49 points per game) is in the range of reasonable. He has played in 72 games, scoring 12-17-29 (0.40 points per game). Missing out on Samanski’s rise through the organization is also a reasonable assessment of the situation entering training camp. No one could have credibly argued he would take advantage of the opportunity in 2025-26.

What is he good at? 

Here’s the thing about Samanski: he has a wide range of skills and is already trusted by the coaching staff. His 1.26 points per 60 at five-on-five is No. 11 among Oilers forwards who have played 10 or more games. His 60 percent goal share at five-on-five (59 percent expected) leads Oilers forwards who have played in 10 or more games. He has a 55 percent faceoff success rate in all game situations. He’s not yet trusted on the penalty kill, but that should come in time.

The five-on-five outscoring

Coach Kris Knoblauch has been searching for outscorers among the bottom-six forwards this season, and Samanski stands out in a big way. Here are the Edmonton forwards (10 or more games) and their scoring rates away from both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl this season:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

There are some shocking numbers here, and it’s important to acknowledge what they mean. Samanski is delivering exceptional numbers away from McDavid and Draisaitl. Although it’s in a small sample (experts agree 200-plus minutes is the lowest level of trustworthiness), the trend is undeniable. It’s also worth mentioning that Vasily Podkolzin shines in this look at time away from the impact centres. Edmonton may want to run Podkolzin and Samanski on a line together in the coming weeks. They are showing the ability to outscore on their own.

At the other end of the scale is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. His outscoring away from McDavid and Draisaitl shows significant erosion. In 2024-25, in 538 minutes solo at five-on-five, Nugent-Hopkins delivered 45 percent of the goal share. The slide this season is a concern.

What does it mean?

Samanski lacks the offensive ability to project on to a skill line (Podkolzin is already there), but as a third-line outscorer, the young German centre could be a long-term solution. Edmonton has been casting about for a player like him since Ryan McLeod was dealt to the Buffalo Sabres in July 2024.

The Samanski signing was a significant addition for the Oilers organization. In a time when the draft picks have been dealt, and the team has a long line of no-movement contracts that are delivering less than full value, Samanski’s value deal shines like a diamond. Eroding veterans will need to be replaced in key roles long before their no-movement clauses and lengthy contracts run out. Edmonton needs players like Samanski.

Bakersfield numbers

Samanski’s goal share this season at Bakersfield is 35-29, 55 percent. The resume from Samanski, 23, in Bakersfield suggests he will be able to handle NHL opposition as a third-line centre. The small NHL sample is backed up by quality AHL numbers.

The future

On Tuesday night in Salt Lake City, the Oilers beat the Utah Mammoth. Samanski played the wing on a line with Jason Dickinson and Kasperi Kapanen. The trio bent but didn’t break, and that’s the key to a third line for these Oilers. Since Dickinson arrived, his five-on-five outscoring, in a small sample, has stood out on a team that has often struggled this year.

In the past several years, the Oilers have paid in full for role players, with several receiving long-term deals that include no-movement clauses. The difficulty for management this summer, and for the next several years, will be in finding a way to replace the veterans with inexpensive talent that can deliver in important moments of the game.

Samanski joins Savoie and Podkolzin as the vanguard for the Oilers’ youth movement. Savoie and Podkolzin have another offensive gear that should allow them to play on the first or second line during their peak seasons (mid-to-late 20s). It’s early to offer any kind of guarantee, but Samanski could emerge as the third-line centre on this team, and ease the difficult Edmonton coaches will face in dialling back minutes for the established veteran forwards.

Samanski has become an attractive option for a team badly in need of legit solutions at a low cap number. He arrived just in time.