With free agency mostly over, it’s time to let the takes begin to flow.
In 2025, six qualifying quarterbacks averaged more than 19 fantasy points per game: Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, and Trevor Lawrence. That is, if you’re paying attention to 2025 ADP: QB1, QB6, QB10, QB13, QB23, and QB20. Yes, that’s right, you did better fading quarterback last year than you did actually investing in the position.
Let’s take stock of how free agency and the offseason have changed life for everybody — or not, in some cases.
Stock Up: Kyler Murray
This feels obvious enough to me but let’s go over it:
Kevin O’Connell‘s offense is routinely praised as one of the league’s kindest to quarterbacks and Murray will now be throwing to two of the best receivers in the NFL in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.J.J. McCarthy was so buried by the Vikings that they specifically refused to call middle-of-the-field concepts with him. That’s the kind of anti-praise you almost never hear leaked publicly. The fact that it made it out there is damning. The idea that there is a real quarterback competition here is insulting to everyone’s intelligence, especially after Carson Wentz was also brought in. The Vikings wouldn’t trust the McCarthy of last season to make coffee. He’s going to have to take monumental steps to be the backup, in my opinion. Murray has delivered several fantasy QB1 seasons in the past and was reasonably effective — if not excellent — in 2024.
Why Vikings QB1 battle will be so compelling
Mike Florio and Chris Simms decide which quarterback competition will have more intrigue: Kyler Murray vs. J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota, or Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta.
I don’t think that Murray is such an excellent fit for this scheme that he’ll be an easy QB1 or anything. In fact, I think O’Connell might have to have his scheme meet Murray halfway on his strengths, because Murray isn’t exactly the quarterback who can always see the middle of the field clearly due to his height.
But compared to where he was at the end of last season when Monti Ossenfort put him in the bye-bye box so he could pretend that was the problem? Murray winding up in the high-QB2 grab bag where we could visualize some success is a huge leap.
Crisitunity: Lamar Jackson
What is a crisitunity? Well, it’s a joining of the words crisis and opportunity, as popularized by Show Only Millenials Have Watched The Simpsons. And I think it’s a useful way to look at fantasy football in a lot of situations. You would never get an opportunity to buy Lamar Jackson this low without 2025 happening. And so … is 2025 the beginning of a crisis? Or is it an opportunity?
The hater’s case:
Coming off an injury-plagued year where his head coach was fired, Jackson is starting to accumulate little dents to his fantasy status. His superpower has always been the speed he can turn on whenever he likes, but he’s entering his age-29 season and had a career-high 10.6 percent sack rate while rushing a career-low 5.2 times per game. Is it all about health, or are we starting to see the end of his peak athleticism? New HC Jesse Minter said he likes the idea of Jackson running less. New OC Declan Doyle is a complete blank slate as a playcaller. I’d hardly call him a bad hire, but it’s not the same kind of bankable production we had with a proven good NFL offensive designer like Todd Monken. Unless you really believe in Devontez Walker taking a step forward, it’s hard to look at Jackson’s supporting cast as exceptional at this point. Rashod Bateman was barely even a thought on the fantasy landscape last year, and Mark Andrews was second on the team in targets. The Ravens did nothing about this in the offseason.
The counter-argument:
You’re getting a rare chance to buy a proven elite fantasy quarterback low in drafts. As we sit here today, Jackson is not close to Josh Allen and is more of a distant QB2. I expect the gap to close a bit as we get closer to the regular season. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson winds up at the head of the second tier by quite a bit when we’re trying to make picks in August. The most optimistic way to look at it is simply that the injury accumulation was so bad it ruined Jackson’s season, and we should toss it out entirely as a predictive argument. I’m not completely immune to that idea. But I also am not excited to buy into Jackson’s future at this point.
The verdict:
There will probably come a time this offseason where I buy the Jackson dip in a draft. I am expecting Doyle to be a good play caller, but I don’t know if I’m excited about Jackson as a top 40 selection in re-draft leagues. To the extent that he winds up in the third round, it will probably be a general lack of enthusiasm about the rest of the options rather than anything Jackson did to regain trust.
Stock Down: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts has survived a lot of things due to his rushing ability, but last year even despite setting a career high in passing touchdowns, he was not worth the fantasy squeeze as a top five quarterback selection. And somehow it wasn’t even Saquon Barkley‘s fault. Hurts rushed 105 times for eight touchdowns, both numbers career lows since becoming a full-time starter. The once-mighty Tush Push, one of the things that made Hurts so effective as a fantasy quarterback, declined heavily in effectiveness last season. To the point that, weirdly, nobody was trying to even ban the play this offseason. (Everyone figured out you could just use Johnny ThirdStringTightEnd to run the play and then just added it to their playbook.)
Then there’s the idea that A.J. Brown could sulk his way out of Philadelphia. I don’t know that Hurts is reliant on Brown to put up big numbers, but I do worry a bit about a quarterback who has struggled at times to adapt to the pure pocket passer aesthetic losing any kind of receiving talent. New OC Sean Mannion appears to be here to revive the running game first and foremost.
People have lost a lot of money betting on Hurts to falter over the years, and I’m very aware of that. But I also think we’re reaching the end of his twenties, and while I think he’ll still be a pretty useful real life quarterback, I don’t know that I’d be excited to pay a top-five quarterback selection for him in 2026 as the infrastructure around him (the offensive line) continues to age and his usefulness as a rusher is in some real question for the first time.
Could Willis be ‘Justin Fields 2.0?’
Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers, and Matthew Berry wonder how Malik Willis will fare with the Miami Dolphins following his reported three-year, $67.5 million deal.
Stock Up: Malik Willis
Well yes, your stock does go up when you go from backup quarterback to starting quarterback. That’s how these things work. Willis has had 42 carries in three starts over the past two seasons, with three rushing touchdowns. He was always going to be on the list of sneaky QB2s with QB1 upside for me if he got a starting role.
I want to talk about the Jaylen Waddle trade here. I actually am not sure that it impacts my view of Willis’ upcoming season much. It would certainly be better for the Dolphins’ real-life prospects and Willis’ down-to-down efficiency to have Waddle. But unless you play in a league with completion percentage as a category, we don’t have to worry about that here. If the Dolphins are forced into blowout game scripts every week and can’t access De’Von Achane as a rusher much … then Willis could run all the time. I think those are pretty great things for Willis’ fantasy value.
The obvious caveat here is: Willis is a smaller quarterback at 6-foot-1, 225 pounds. He is going to take a lot of punishment. The more he holds on to the ball, the more likely it is that he will get hurt at some point. So, I wouldn’t want to go into the year relying on Willis as the only stab you have at QB1 production, but I do think he has a fantasy ceiling that isn’t properly being accounted for in his current ADP.
Crisitunity: Justin Herbert
The lover’s case:
Herbert finished the season 10th in fantasy PPG among qualified quarterbacks. He did this despite losing both offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for most of the season, and playing through a fractured hand that at times had him almost completely unable to hold on to the football. (Watch the Eagles game against the Chargers on Monday night and you will see a quarterback who was begging to put the ball on the turf.)
We lost the easy excuse by replacing Greg Roman with former Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel once made Tua Tagovailoa one of the most prolific passers in the NFL, and fortunately, nobody ever said anything mean about either Tua or Herbert on the internet in the context of McDaniel. We simply don’t have to think about that.
The counter-argument:
OK, but just how much say will McDaniel have on how often the Chargers run the ball? Combining McDaniel and Jim Harbaugh is an identity crisis waiting to happen. It’s also worth pointing out that Keenan Allen is gone and seems likely to replaced by Tre’ Harris in the starting three-wide set. Say what you will about Roman last year, but the Chargers threw the ball plenty whenever the offensive line allowed them to actually drop back and do it.
The verdict:
I love watching Herbert’s highlight reel throws. I also think he suffers the life that many non-Patrick Mahomes quarterbacks have over the years — he’s good, but he’s not the best, which actually means that we can devalue him, and thus he’s bad. And none of those highlights occurred in the playoffs, folks…
But Herbert has also finished QB11 twice, QB9 once, and was QB2 in 2021. He’s remarkably consistent despite never having a supporting cast or a coordinator as objectively good as this one. (I didn’t even get in to my Oronde Gadsden II material.) I think Herbert is underperforming his raw talent and like the idea of a reset for him. He’ll be comfortably in the middle of the QB1 tier for me in 2026 with the idea that the worst that can happen already has, and nobody has ever regretted typing that.
Stock Down: Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones was QB17 in fantasy points, but 13th in average points per game despite leaving his last start very early against the Jaguars. This makes it simply harder to imagine Jones hitting an upside case this season after a torn Achilles ended his season in December. All the rehab articles have been positive so far, but at the end of the day, Jones’ mobility is what made the Colts dangerous early last season. He rushed for five touchdowns — his most since 2022 — and was able to effectively throw on the run.
While I certainly don’t think keeping Alec Pierce is a bad outcome for the Colts, the fact that they had to sacrifice Michael Pittman Jr. to the salary cap table to do it does open up some real questions for their skill position corps. We’re talking about a team where the wideout table drops from Pierce and Josh Downs to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine or Ashton Dulin in the third receiver role. Tyler Warren‘s fantasy stock is loving this, but this is not the same kind of ideal situation it was last year. And there’s no first-round pick available to fix it quickly, either.
I think Jones has some long-term dynasty upside and certainly think 2027 could see him threaten to be a No. 1 fantasy QB again if the Colts retain Shane Steichen. But it’s hard to rely on him for 2026 and we simply won’t know what 2027 brings until it arrives. It’s a tough run-out for one of fantasy football’s best stories of the first two months of 2025.