UFC heads to Seattle this week, highlighted by a middleweight bout between fourth-ranked Israel Adesanya and 14th-ranked Joe Pyfer. Adesanya (24-5) is looking to snap a three-bout losing streak, while Pyfer (15-3) has won three in a row. The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. In the main event, Adesanya is the -148 favorite (risk $148 to win $100) in the latest UFC Fight Night odds, while Pyfer is the +124 underdog. The over/under for total rounds is 3.5, with the Over favored at -125. 

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer is a women’s flyweight contest between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber. With a 16-5 record, Grasso is the -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features seven fights.

Before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure’s proven computer model.

McClure’s UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model’s top UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+5.8% edge) in the featherweight bout of Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas, which returns +145. “My model shows 46.6% probability this fight goes Over 1.5 rounds,” McClure said. “The decision rate is 66% in simulation and the average fight length comes out to 2.50 rounds. Both fighters have shown they can take punishment and keep competing. The chins are there, the cardio is there, and I expect this to be a longer fight than the market is pricing in.”

The model is also targeting two other plus-money UFC bets, including one that returns over +600! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer picks!